Emmy Predictions: With ‘Veep’ Gone and ‘Game of Thrones’ Back, Expect a Real Dogfight

We pick the winners in all 26 of the categories that will be handed out at Monday night’s Emmy ceremony

Two huge moves could lead to one of the most intriguing Primetime Emmys ceremonies in recent memory on Monday, as two “reigning champions” go head-to-head for the top drama Emmy and a batch of first- and second-year shows vie to take an open spot in comedy.

In the Emmys drama categories, “Game of Thrones” is back after a one-year absence, creating a potential power struggle with “The Handmaid’s Tale” for the top spot. In the comedy categories, three-time winner “Veep” has dropped out for a year, vacating the title and clearing the way for a pitched battle between newer shows anxious to replace it at the top.

As always, the Emmys’ voting rules — everybody votes for the program awards, but only specific peer groups cast ballots in other categories — make sweeps unlikely and upsets a regular occurrence. The Emmys are the hardest of the major awards to accurately predict, but these are our best guesses in all 26 categories that will be handed out on this year’s show.

DRAMA SERIES CATEGORIES

OUTSTANDING DRAMA SERIES

“The Americans”
“The Crown”
“Game of Thrones”
“The Handmaid’s Tale”
“Stranger Things”
“This Is Us”
“Westworld”

Two of the nominees can legitimately be called defending champions: “The Handmaid’s Tale,” which won last year, and “Game of Thrones,” which won the last time it was eligible, two years ago. But Season 2 of “The Handmaid’s Tale” wasn’t as acclaimed as Season 1, and the season of “Game of Thrones” that voters are being asked to consider aired in July and August of 2017, which might make it only a distant memory. (Admittedly, they have screeners to refresh their memory if they want.)

Those factors could open the door for the final season of “The Americans,” a series that was always underappreciated by voters, but one which ended its seven-year run with a bang. Still, “Handmaid’s” and “Thrones” are probably the leaders — and while it’s hard to imagine that the latter show won’t win again after its final season airs next year, the showdown over Donald Trump’s Supreme Court nominee makes “The Handmaid’s Tale” feel timely and important.

Predicted winner: “The Handmaid’s Tale”

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES

Jason Bateman, “Ozark”
Sterling K. Brown, “This Is Us”
Ed Harris, “Westworld”
Matthew Rhys, “The Americans”
Milo Ventimiglia, “This Is Us”
Jeffrey Wright, “Westworld”

Sterling K. Brown won last year for the first season of “This Is Us.” Milo Ventimiglia had what was arguably the crucial storyline for this year’s second season of that show. Matthew Rhys ended his run on “The Americans” and received only his third nomination for that show. One of those actors will probably win, and the big question is whether the voters will want to give Rhys a shiny parting gift.

Brown should probably be the front runner, but you can’t rule out Rhys: In the past decade, Bryan Cranston (“Breaking Bad”), Kyle Chandler (“Friday Night Lights”) and Jon Hamm (“Mad Men”) have all won for the final season of their shows, making this a category more prone to sentiment than most.

Predicted winner: Matthew Rhys, “The Americans”

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES
Claire Foy, “The Crown”
Tatiana Maslany, “Orphan Black”
Elisabeth Moss, “The Handmaid’s Tale”
Sandra Oh, “Killing Eve”
Keri Russell, “The Americans”
Evan Rachel Wood, “Westworld”

Elisabeth Moss won last year, and she’s the favorite to do so again; Emmy voters, after all, are creatures of habit. But Sandra Oh, the first actress of Asian descent ever nominated in the category, would be a historic win. And Claire Foy has finished her second and final season playing Queen Elizabeth on “The Crown,” which would make her a sentimental favorite … if it wasn’t for Keri Russell finishing her seventh and final season on “The Americans.”

Predicted winner: Elisabeth Moss, “The Handmaid’s Tale”

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES

Nikolaj Coster-Waldau, “Game of Thrones”
Mandy Patinkin, “Homeland”
Matt Smith, “The Crown”
Peter Dinklage, “Game of Thrones”
David Harbour, “Stranger Things”
Joseph Fiennes, “The Handmaid’s Tale”

Of this year’s nominees, only two — Mandy Patinkin and David Harbour — were nominated last year, with Harbour feeling like a shaky front runner this year. But Peter Dinklage is a six-time nominee and a two-time winner, and Matt Smith will benefit from the fact that this was the last season of “The Crown” in which he’ll play Prince Philip. (That show provided last year’s winner, John Lithgow.) Here’s guessing that Dinklage will win again, but not until next year.

Predicted winner: David Harbour, “Stranger Things”

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES

Lena Headey, “Game of Thrones”
Vanessa Kirby, “The Crown”
Ann Dowd, “The Handmaid’s Tale”
Thandie Newton, “Westworld”
Millie Bobby Brown, “Stranger Things”
Alexis Bledel, “The Handmaid’s Tale”
Yvonne Strahovski, “The Handmaid’s Tale”

A wide-open category. Ann Dowd is the reigning champ, but that means less in this category than in some others. (In the last decade, only Anna Gunn from “Breaking Bad” has gone back-to-back.) Dowd is also facing two other actresses from her show, with Yvonne Strahovski in particular coming off a year in which her character had one of the defining storylines of the season. Vanessa Kirby from “The Crown” and Thandie Newton from “Westworld” can’t be overlooked. And Millie Bobby Brown had a great second season on “Stranger Things,” though she was considered the front runner last year at this time before losing to Dowd. We think a minor upset is in the works here.

Predicted winner: Yvonne Strahovski, “The Handmaid’s Tale”

OUTSTANDING DIRECTING FOR A DRAMA SERIES

“The Crown” (Episode: “Paterfamilias”), Stephen Daldry
“Game of Thrones” (Episode: “Beyond the Wall”), Alan Taylor
“Game of Thrones” (Episode: “The Dragon and the Wolf”), Jeremy Podeswa
“The Handmaid’s Tale” (Episode: “After”), Kari Skogland
“Ozark” (Episode: “The Toll”), Jason Bateman
“Ozark” (Episode: “Tonight We Improvise”), Daniel Sackheim
“Stranger Things” (Episode: “Chapter Nine: The Gate”), the Duffer brothers

Forget about vote-splitting: The last three winners for drama directing came from shows that had two separate nominations in the category. If that streak holds, the Emmy will go either to one of the two “Game of Thrones” nominees, or one of the two “Ozark” ones. But the episode of “The Crown” directed by Stephen Daldry and the one of “The Handmaid’s Tale” directed by Kari Skogland (the only female director in the category) are formidable contenders — and the haunting memorial ritual in the snow that opens Skogland’s episode might be enough to take this one.

Predicted winner: “The Handmaid’s Tale”

OUTSTANDING WRITING FOR A DRAMA SERIES

“The Americans” (Episode: “START”), Joel Fields and Joe Weisberg
“The Crown” (Episode: “Mystery Man”), Peter Morgan
“Game of Thrones” (Episode: “The Dragon and the Wolf”), David Benioff and D.B. Weiss
“The Handmaid’s Tale” (Episode: “June”), Bruce Miller
“Killing Eve” (Episode: “Nice Face”), Phoebe Waller-Bridge
“Stranger Things” (Episode: “Chapter Nine: The Gate”), the Duffer brothers

“The Americans” was nominated for the final episode of its final season, and you’d be hard-pressed to find a more acclaimed episode of television this past year. “The Handmaid’s Tale” won in this category last year and “Game of Thrones” won twice before that, but this seems a likely place to honor the show about Russian spies that only got timelier over the years.

Predicted winner: “The Americans”

COMEDY SERIES CATEGORIES

OUTSTANDING COMEDY SERIES

“Atlanta”
“Barry”
“black-ish”
“Curb Your Enthusiasm”
“GLOW”
“The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
“Silicon Valley”
“Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt”

With “Veep” on hiatus because of star Julia Louis-Dreyfus’ cancer treatment, the category is missing the show that won for the last three years in a row — and with “Modern Family” not nominated, it’s also missing the one that won for the five consecutive years before that. So the winner is going to be something new, most likely either the second-year show “Atlanta” or one of the three rookie shows in the category: “Barry,” “GLOW” or “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel.” (The sole broadcast-network nominee, “black-ish,” also has a shot at sneaking in.)

For the most part, this feels like a race between “Atlanta,” which won acting and directing Emmys last year and could well do so again, and “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel,” the best regarded of the new shows and a timely entry in this year of female empowerment. Showbiz voters may give the latter show, about a New York housewife going into standup comedy, a slight edge.

Predicted winner: “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES

Pamela Adlon, “Better Things”
Lily Tomlin, “Grace & Frankie”
Allison Janney, “Mom”
Tracee Ellis Ross, “Black-ish”
Issa Rae, “Insecure”
Rachel Brosnahan, “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”

None of the nominated shows were even on the air in 2011, which was the last time somebody who wasn’t Julia Louis-Dreyfus won this award. But with the “Veep” star temporarily sidelined, the field is open. Allison Janney could join Helen Mirren and Helen Hunt as the only actresses to win an Oscar and an Emmy in the same calendar year, and she’s won twice before for “Mom” (although those wins were in the supporting-actress category, before she shifted to lead in 2017). Tracee Ellis Ross and “black-ish” could be due, and Issa Rae is a real threat. But it’s hard to bet against Mrs. Maisel, because, you know, she’s marvelous.

Predicted winner: Rachel Brosnahan, “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES

Anthony Anderson, “Black-ish”
Ted Danson, “The Good Place”
Larry David, “Curb Your Enthusiasm”
Donald Glover, “Atlanta”
Bill Hader, “Barry”
William H. Macy, “Shameless”

Do not underestimate Ted Danson, a three-time winner for “Cheers” and a beloved TV icon with a great part in a show, “The Good Place,” that didn’t get as many nominations as it should have. And do not underestimate the appeal of a late-breaking hot show, “Barry,” with just the right actor, Bill Hader, in the lead role.

But this award usually goes to somebody who’s already won it. Donald Glover won it last year, and he didn’t get any worse this year. I’m really tempted to predict an upset for Danson, but only once in the last decade has the winner in this category come from a show that wasn’t nominated for Outstanding Comedy Series. The smart money is probably on Glover.

Predicted winner: Donald Glover, “Atlanta”

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES

Zazie Beetz, “Atlanta”
Laurie Metcalf, “Roseanne”
Leslie Jones ,”Saturday Night Live”
Alex Borstein, “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
Betty Gilpin, “GLOW”
Aidy Bryant, “Saturday Night Live”
Kate McKinnon, “Saturday Night Live”
Megan Mullally, “Will & Grace”

Last year, there was virtually no question that Kate McKinnon was going to win her second consecutive Emmy, mostly for playing Hillary Clinton on “SNL.” This year, McKinnon has a real shot at making it three in a row, but she’s facing still competition from Laurie Metcalf (who gets bonus points for surviving “Roseanne”), Zazie Beetz (a scene-stealer on “Atlanta”), Betty Gilpin (ditto on “GLOW”) and especially Alex Borstein, who is essential to “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel.” Borstein already won an Emmy this year for voiceover on “Family Guy,” and she might be on a roll.

By the way, the eight nominees make this the biggest Emmy acting category ever, tying the same category in 2015.

Predicted winner: Alex Borstein, “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES

Brian Tyree Henry, “Atlanta”
Louie Anderson, “Baskets”
Kenan Thompson, “Saturday Night Live”
Tituss Burgess, “Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt”
Henry Winkler, “Barry”
Alec Baldwin, “Saturday Night Live”
Tony Shalhoub, “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”

Voters have always loved Tony Shalhoub, who has a great new role on “Mrs. Maisel.” They’ve loved Alec Baldwin, but even he’s getting tired of playing Donald Trump on “SNL.” They’ve loved Louie Anderson, a surprise winner in this category two years ago. And they’ve never quite loved Henry Winkler enough, giving him six nominations but no wins over 40-plus years on television, including his iconic part on “Happy Days.” But everybody loves Winkler on “Barry,” where he got a fabulous part and knocked it out of the park.

Predicted winner: Henry Winkler, “Barry”

OUTSTANDING DIRECTING FOR A COMEDY SERIES

“Atlanta” (Episode: “FUBU”), Donald Glover
“Atlanta” (Episode: “Teddy Perkins”), Hiro Murai
“Barry” (Episode: “Chapter One: Make Your Mark”), Bill Hader
“The Big Bang Theory” (Episode: “The Bow Tie Asymmetry”), Mark Cendrowski
“GLOW” (Episode: Pilot), Jesse Peretz
“The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” (Episode: Pilot), Amy Sherman-Palladino
“Silicon Valley” (Episode: “Initial Coin Offering”), Mike Judge

While vote splitting doesn’t seem to be a problem in the drama-directing category, things are trickier on the comedy side. The last four shows to receive multiple nominations in the category — “Veep” in 2016 and 2017 and “Silicon Valley” both of those years as well — lost the directing Emmy to a show that only had a single nomination. Will that hurt “Atlanta” this year, since that show is the only one with more than one nomination? It might, even though either of its two episodes, “FUBU” and especially “Teddy Perkins,” would be favorites if only one of them had been nominated.

If the Donald Glover and Hiro Murai episodes split the “Atlanta” vote, the beneficiary could well be the pilots for “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel,” “Barry” or even “GLOW,” all of which launched those shows on a high note. We’ll go with the first of those shows, even though that brings us perilously close to predicting a “Maisel” sweep of the sort that rarely if ever happens at the Emmys.

Predicted winner: “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”

OUTSTANDING WRITING FOR A COMEDY SERIES

“Atlanta” (Episode: “Alligator Man”), Donald Glover
“Atlanta” (Episode: “Barbershop”), Stefani Robinson
“Barry” (Episode: “Chapter One: Make Your Mark”), Alec Berg and Bill Hader
“Barry” (Episode: “Chapter Seven: Loud, Fast and Keep Going”), Liz Sarnoff
“The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” (Episode: Pilot), Amy Sherman-Palladino
“Silicon Valley” (Episode: “Fifty-One Percent”), Alec Berg

Although “Barry” and “Atlanta” are formidable, this category seems even likelier than directing to go to “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel.” If that show is going to win the Outstanding Comedy Series award, then Amy Sherman-Palladino should be rewarded for the episode that launched it.

Predicted winner: “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”

LIMITED SERIES AND TELEVISION MOVIE CATEGORIES

OUTSTANDING LIMITED SERIES

“The Alienist”
“The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story”
“Genius: Picasso”
“Godless”
“Patrick Melrose”

Ryan Murphy’s shows have been nominated for seven years in a row in this category, but he’s only won once, for “The People v. O.J. Simpson” in 2016. His nomination this year, though, is for “The Assassination of Gianni Versace,” the second installment in the “American Crime Story” franchise that was kicked off with “O.J.” That’s enough to make it the category favorite, though we definitely shouldn’t write off Netflix’s dark Western “Godless” or Showtime’s Benedict Cumberbatch vehicle “Patrick Melrose.”

Predicted winner: “The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story”

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES OR MOVIE

Antonio Banderas, “Genius: Picasso”
Darren Criss, “Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story”
Benedict Cumberbatch, “Patrick Melrose”
Jeff Daniels, “The Looming Tower”
John Legend, “Jesus Christ Superstar Live In Concert”
Jesse Plemons, “USS Callister”/”Black Mirror”

“The Assassination of Gianni Versace” isn’t really about the guy whose name is in the title — it’s about the assassin, and Darren Criss is magnetic enough in that role that he’s the clear front runner here. Watch out, though, because Emmy voters do love a little Benedict Cumberbatch. Plus, the three acting nominations for “Jesus Christ Superstar Live in Concert” (the first ever for the recent spate of live musicals) show that they really responded to that show as well.

Predicted winner: Darren Criss, “The Assassination of Gianni Versace”

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES OR MOVIE

Jessica Biel, “The Sinner”
Laura Dern, “The Tale”
Michelle Dockery, “Godless”
Edie Falco, “Law & Order True Crime: The Menendez Murders”
Regina King, “Seven Seconds”
Sarah Paulson, “American Horror Story: Cult”

You’d be foolish to overlook Edie Falco (13 nominations, four wins) or Regina King (four noms, two wins) or Sarah Paulson (seven noms, one win) or Michelle Dockery (three noms, no wins). But somehow, this feels like a battle between Jessica Biel in an eight-hour miniseries and Laura Dern in a movie, both of them exploring childhood trauma. Voters have more of a history with Dern, who won last year for “Big Little Lies,” and that may give her a slight edge.

Predicted winner: Laura Dern, “The Tale”

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES OR MOVIE

Jeff Daniels, “Godless”
Ricky Martin, “The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story”
Finn Wittrock, “The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story”
John Leguizamo, “Waco”
Brandon Victor Dixon, “Jesus Christ Superstar Live in Concert”
Edgar Ramirez, “The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story”
Michael Stuhlbarg, “The Looming Tower”

“The Assassination of Gianni Versace” has a good chance of taking three of the four movie/mini acting categories, with Edgar Ramirez the likeliest to prevail in this one. But Brandon Victor Dixon was the revelation of “Jesus Christ Superstar,” in which Judas always did have the best songs. Still, Jeff Daniels’ fearsome performance in “Godless,” in which he embodies that title as the implacably baddest of bad guys, casts a shadow over everybody else in the category.

Predicted winner: Jeff Daniels, “Godless”

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES OR MOVIE

Adina Porter, “American Horror Story: Cult”
Merritt Wever, “Godless”
Penélope Cruz, “The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story”
Letitia Wright, “Black Museum”/”Black Mirror”
Sara Bareilles, “Jesus Christ Superstar Live in Concert”
Judith Light, “The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story”

There’s no obvious winner in this category, with Merritt Wever, Letitia Wright, Sara Bareilles and Judith Light all definitely in the mix. But as the beleaguered Donatella Versace in “The Assassination of Gianni Versace,” Penélope Cruz may have enough to put her over the top.

Predicted winner: Penélope Cruz, “The Assassination of Gianni Versace”

OUTSTANDING DIRECTING FOR A LIMITED SERIES, MOVIE OR DRAMATIC SPECIAL

“The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story” (Episode: “The Man Who Would Be Vogue”), Ryan Murphy
“Godless,” Scott Frank
“Jesus Christ Superstar Live in Concert,” David Leveaux and Alex Rudzinski
“The Looming Tower” (Episode: “9/11”), Craig Zisk
“Paterno,” Barry Levinson
“Patrick Melrose,” Edward Berger
“Twin Peaks,” David Lynch

The category mixes directors who were nominated for a single episode (“Gianni Versace,” “The Looming Tower”) with one nominated for a movie (“Paterno”), one for a special (“Jesus Christ Superstar”) and three for entire miniseries (“Godless,” “Patrick Melrose,” “Twin Peaks”). It’s apples and oranges for sure, and it would not be a surprise if almost any of the nominees won, though Ryan Murphy is probably the favorite.

But even though voters didn’t really go for “Twin Peaks,” it’s impossible not to be drawn to the unprecedented daring and sheer scale of David Lynch’s work on the surreal 18-episode, 17-hour reboot. This may be wishful thinking more than canny prognostication, but I refuse to believe voters will ignore what the so-far Emmyless Lynch did.

Predicted winner: “Twin Peaks”

OUTSTANDING WRITING FOR A LIMITED SERIES, MOVIE OR DRAMATIC SPECIAL

“American Vandal” (Episode: “Clean Up”), Kevin McManus and Matthew McManus
“The Assassination of Gianni Versace – American Crime Story” (Episode: “House by the Lake”), Tom Rob Smith
“Black Mirror: USS Callister,” William Bridges and Charlie Brooker
“Godless,” Scott Frank
“Patrick Melrose,” David Nicholls
“Twin Peaks,” Mark Frost and David Lynch

OK, “Twin Peaks” is probably just too damn weird to win this one. “Gianni Versace,” “Black Mirror” and “Patrick Melrose,” on the other hand, could easily win. But the dark and doomy revisionist Western “Godless” feels as if it has the heft and style to take the prize.

Predicted winner: “Godless”

VARIETY AND REALITY CATEGORIES

OUTSTANDING VARIETY SKETCH SERIES

“At Home with Amy Sedaris”
“Drunk History”
“I Love You, America with Sarah Silverman”
“Portlandia”
“Saturday Night Live”
“Tracey Ullman’s Show”

Over the years, Emmy voters gradually warmed to the Fred Armisen/Carrie Brownstein sketch series “Portlandia,” which has been nominated for its last four seasons but has never won. With the show ending last March, this is its final chance to land the big prize — but standing in its way is “Saturday Night Live,” the most nominated program in Emmy history. While its past season was perhaps not as acclaimed as the election-year one before it, “SNL” still landed 21 nominations, which is three times as many as every other show in this category combined.

Predicted winner: “Saturday Night Live”

OUTSTANDING VARIETY TALK SERIES

“The Daily Show With Trevor Noah”
“Full Frontal With Samantha Bee”
“Jimmy Kimmel Live!”
“Last Week Tonight With John Oliver”
“The Late Late Show With James Corden”
“The Late Show With Stephen Colbert”

Ever since 10-time winner Jon Stewart left “The Daily Show” and two-time champ Stephen Colbert moved from “The Colbert Report” to “The Late Show,” John Oliver has won in this category. Hitting his stride after the election of Donald Trump, Colbert seemed ready to take back his crown last year — but as we’ve said, Emmy voters are creatures of habit. So in a category in which winning streaks are the norm, we’ll stick with Oliver until voters give us a reason to think otherwise.

Predicted winner: “Last Week Tonight With John Oliver”

OUTSTANDING DIRECTING FOR A VARIETY SPECIAL

“Dave Chappelle: Equanimity,” Stan Lathan
“Jerry Seinfeld: Jerry Before Seinfeld,” Michael Bonfiglio
“The Oscars,” Glenn Weiss
“Steve Martin & Martin Short: An Evening You Will Forget for the Rest of Your Life,” Marcus Raboy
“Super Bowl LII Halftime Show Starring Justin Timberlake,” Hamish Hamilton

Three of the nominees are built around standup acts, the other two around the year’s biggest entertainment broadcast and its biggest broadcast of any kind. But in the nine-year history of this category, the award has gone to four awards shows, no standup comedy shows and no Super Bowl halftime shows. So we give the edge to the awards show.

Predicted winner: “The Oscars”

OUTSTANDING WRITING FOR A VARIETY SPECIAL

“Full Frontal With Samantha Bee: The Great American* Puerto Rico (*It’s Complicated),” Samantha Bee, Pat Cassels, Mike Drucker, Eric Drysdale, Mathan Erhardt, Miles Kahn and Nicole Silverberg
“John Mulaney: Kid Gorgeous at Radio City,” John Mulaney
“Michelle Wolf: Nice Lady,” Michelle Wolf
“Patton Oswalt: Annihilation,” Patton Oswalt
“Steve Martin & Martin Short: An Evening You Will Forget for the Rest of Your Life,” Steve Martin and Martin Short

The big questions here: Will Samantha Bee’s recent dust-up over the phrase she lobbed at Ivanka Trump hurt her or help her — and if so, will Steve Martin and Martin Short be the safe choice? Emmy voters haven’t been afraid to be political in recent years, but that C-word of Bee’s just might be a bridge too far.

Predicted winner: “Steve Martin & Martin Short: An Evening You Will Forget for the Rest of Your Life”

OUTSTANDING REALITY-COMPETITION PROGRAM

“The Amazing Race”
“American Ninja Warrior”
“Project Runway”
“RuPaul’s Drag Race”
“Top Chef”
“The Voice”

In the 15 years of this category’s existence, only three shows have ever won, and all three are nominated again this year: “The Amazing Race,” which has 10 wins but none since 2014; “The Voice,” with four wins, including the last three in a row; and “Top Chef,” with a lone win in 2010. The race may well be between “The Voice” and “The Amazing Race” — except that “RuPaul’s Drag Race” seems to get more popular with voters every year, and this year it came out of the Creative Arts Emmys with four awards, more than any other show in the category. Is it time for a new show to join the winners’ circle?

Predicted winner: “RuPaul’s Drag Race”