Final season premiere for Fox drama sees the series’ harshest ratings decline
Empires rise and empires fall. The meteoric rise of hip-hop soap opera “Empire” was great for Fox just a few years ago, but the show’s once giant Nielsen ratings consequently set up an epic fall, and the Lyons (the fictional family at the center of the show) are now limping to the finish line in their final season.
Continue reading
Join WrapPRO for Exclusive Content,
Full Video Access, Premium Events, and More!
The Season 6 start for “Empire,” the show’s first season premiere since Jussie Smollett left, sunk 47% in ratings from the Nielsen numbers for the opening episode for Season 5, according to the TV ratings company’s Live + Same Day data covering the important adults 18-49 demographic.
On a percentage basis, that decline is the show’s largest from season premiere to season premiere.
Also Read: How Fox Avoided the Premiere Week Ratings Decline Trend | PRO Insight
The story was about the same in total viewers. By that all-encompassing metric, the “Empire” Season 6 premiere dropped 46% from Season 5’s initial hour. Previously, the harshest total-viewer disparity between two consecutive season premieres had been -35%, the drop off between Episodes 301 and 401.
Adding a week of catch-up viewing to each of the show’s six season premieres paints a slightly better retention story — but again, the operative word here is “slightly.”
The Sept. 24, 2019 Season 6 premiere still has the harshest declines from its predecessor in Nielsen’s Live + 7 Day ratings. (Again, this is on a percentage basis, where smaller starting points lead to more dramatic swings. More actual eyeballs were lost between Seasons 2 and 3 and then to a lesser extent between Seasons 3 and 4.)
“Empire” is certainly not alone in seeing dramatic drops from Fall 2018 — especially in terms of “live” viewing. In the era of “Peak TV” and binge-watching, scripted shows are not considered appointment television, and delayed-viewing continues to account for a larger and larger percentage of any episode’s eventual audience tally.
It’s important to reiterate that in many ways, “Empire” is a victim of its own massive early success. The show started off hot, and then it got really huge. There was only one direction to really go from there. It was just a matter of time. In this case, the time was six seasons, which most dramas do not live to see.
See how this drama has performed in each season premiere in the chart, below. The top portion is “live” ratings, the lower one is inclusive of one-week’s delayed viewing.
Also Read: CBS' 'Young Sheldon' Is a Much, Much Smaller Hit Without 'The Big Bang Theory' | PRO Insight
We focused on season premieres here in part because they are generally among a show’s highest-rated episodes. Premieres also tend to get front loaded tune-in, meaning fans don’t like to wait a long while to catch-up via DVRs or on-demand.
Mainly, however, we targeted the “Empire” season premieres for this story because Episode 601 is the only Season 6 episode we currently have Live + 7 data for. Nielsen released that data to clients on Tuesday of this week.
The downward trend continues with each episode. Also on Tuesday, “Empire” set new series lows in terms of demo ratings and total viewers, according to Nielsen’s Live + Same Day numbers. We expect that negative narrative to repeat numerous times throughout Season 6.
As “Empire” viewers will remember, Smollett was written out of the final few episodes of Season 5 after Chicago prosecutors charged him with multiple counts of filing a false police report, though those charges were later dropped as part of a deal requiring him to perform community service and forfeit $10,000 bond.
We’re betting that even non-“Empire” viewers will remember Smollett’s account of what happened on Jan. 29, 2019. The actor/singer told Chicago police that two men in “MAGA” hats shouted racial and homophobic slurs, beat him, put a noose around his neck and doused him with bleach.
Over the following days, holes in Smollett’s story came to light. Two suspects were arrested, but they said Smollett paid them to stage the attack. As it turned out, at least one of the men worked with Smollett on “Empire.”
17 New Fall TV Shows Ranked by Premiere Viewers: From 'Batwoman' to 'Prodigal Son' (Photos)
-
The CW/Fox/NBC/ABC
Broadcast is back in session: Fall TV a.k.a. the kickoff to the traditional September-to-May season, began last month with CBS, NBC, Fox, ABC and The CW starting to premiere fresh seasons of their returning shows and debuting new series. To date, 17 new fall programs have premiered on the broadcast networks and we've got each of their starts charted by total viewers below. Find our summer version of these rankings here and the midseason list here.
Also Read: Here’s the Complete Fall 2019 TV Schedule for All 5 Broadcast Networks
-
The CW
Rank: 17 Show: "Nancy Drew" Net: The CW Total Viewers: 1.174 million
-
NBC
Rank: 16 Show: "Sunnyside" Net: NBC Total Viewers: 1.794 million
-
The CW
Rank: 15 Show: "Batwoman" Net: The CW Total Viewers: 1.799 million
-
Fox
Rank: 14 Show: "Bless the Harts" Net: Fox Total Viewers: 1.808 million
-
NBC
Rank: 13 Show: "Perfect Harmony" Net: NBC Total Viewers: 2.601 million
-
Fox
Rank: 12 Show: "Almost Family" Net: Fox Total Viewers: 2.951 million
-
ABC
Rank: 11 Show: "Mixed-ish" Net: ABC Total Viewers: 4.009 million
-
ABC
Rank: 10 Show: "Emergence" Net: ABC Total Viewers: 4.111 million
-
Fox
Rank: 9 Show: "Prodigal Son" Net: Fox Total Viewers: 4.180 million
-
ABC
Rank: 8 Show: "Stumptown" Net: ABC Total Viewers: 4.534 million
-
CBS
Rank: 7 Show: "Evil" Net: CBS Total Viewers: 4.618 million
-
NBC
Rank: 6 Show: "Bluff City Law" Net: NBC Total Viewers: 4.727 million
-
ABC
Rank: 5 Show: "Kids Say the Darndest Things" Net: ABC Total Viewers: 5.399 million
-
CBS
Rank: 4 Show: "Bob Hearts Abishola" Net: CBS Total Viewers: 5.876 million
-
CBS
Rank: 3 Show: "Carol's Second Act" Net: CBS Total Viewers: 5.965 million
-
CBS
Rank: 2 Show: "All Rise" Net: CBS Total Viewers: 6.006 million
-
CBS
Rank: 1 Show: "The Unicorn" Net: CBS Total Viewers: 6.007 million
Ratings are ”Mixed-ish“
Broadcast is back in session: Fall TV a.k.a. the kickoff to the traditional September-to-May season, began last month with CBS, NBC, Fox, ABC and The CW starting to premiere fresh seasons of their returning shows and debuting new series. To date, 17 new fall programs have premiered on the broadcast networks and we've got each of their starts charted by total viewers below. Find our summer version of these rankings here and the midseason list here.
Also Read: Here’s the Complete Fall 2019 TV Schedule for All 5 Broadcast Networks
Tony Maglio
TV Editor • tony.maglio@thewrap.com • Twitter: @tonymaglio