“Fifty Shades of Grey” is expected to come in at around $30 million in its second weekend, say analysts.
However, the steamy R-rated love story blew past previous expectations — and the competition — over the Presidents Day weekend with a record-breaking $94.4 million, so few will be surprised if it goes even higher.
The Jamie Dornan-Dakota Johnson big-screen adaptation of E.L. James‘s erotic bestseller should also easily top the weekend’s three wide openers, comedy sequel “Hot Tub Time Machine 2,” from MGM and Paramount, Kevin Costner sports drama “McFarland, USA” from Disney and teen comedy “The DUFF” from CBS Films.
A $30 million haul for “Fifty Shades” would be more than a 60 percent drop from its three-day total last weekend, typical for Valentine’s Day romance movies. It would also be comparable to other female-driven event films like “Sex and the City,” as well as other franchise fare such as “Twilight” and “The Hunger Games.”
“It’s not anything troubling or out of the ordinary,” BoxOffice.com chief analyst Phil Contrino told TheWrap.
Stoner time travel comedy “Hot Tub” is looking at around $15 million and the other two should wind up in the $8 million-$10 million range. Given their modest budgets though, they should easily be profitable for their respective studios.
Rob Corddry, Craig Robinson and Clark Duke return to the “Hot Tub” sequel, while Adam Scott takes over for John Cusack. “McFarland, USA,” budgeted at $25 million, is based on a true story and also stars Maria Bello. “The DUFF” is based on the 2010 YA novel of the same name and stars Mae Whitman, Robbie Amell and Bella Thorne.
The much-hyped BDSM drama “Fifty Shades” received a C+ CinemaScore, which suggests poor word of mouth from those who rushed out to see it opening weekend. But no one at Universal is too concerned, given that its global total is $270 million so far, it had a $40 million budget and a sequel is all but assured.
The weekend’s top three could be completely filled by holdovers, with “Kingsman: The Secret Service” and “SpongeBob: Sponge Out of Water” strongly positioned to retain superiority over newcomers.
“Kingsman,” which made a higher than expected $41 million its opening weekend, is looking to bring in around $20 million its second weekend, dropping only about 40-45 percent. The animation-live-action hybrid “Spongebob,” meanwhile, could make another $14-$15 million in its third weekend.