A glut of sagging sequels plagued Hollywood this year, but an even scarier trend has also emerged — an epidemic of threequelitis.
Disappointing threequels have fueled the ongoing chorus of complaints about Hollywood’s lack of original ideas as 2016 played host to a total of nine widely-released series third installments of popular franchises.
Out of them, only two made more money than their direct predecessors: “Captain America: Civil War” and “Purge: Election Year.”
And Disney-Marvel’s “Civil War” was arguably a not-so-undercover “Avengers” sequel, since it featured every major Avenger, save Thor (Chris Hemsworth) and The Hulk (Mark Ruffalo).
The movie’s $408 million in domestic box office revenue reflected the movie’s wide appeal — but also its massive ensemble of star power, which also added key cameos from Black Panther (Chadwick Boseman) and the new Spider-Man (Tom Holland). It earned nearly 60 percent more than 2014’s second Cap installment “Winter Soldier,” which grossed $260 million, and the total was more in line with last year’s “Avengers: Age of Ultron,” which earned $459 million.
As for Universal-Blumhouse’s third horror installment “The Purge: Election Year,” it delivered a threepeat performance, beating 2015’s “The Purge: Anarchy” by a smaller margin of roughly $8 million, or nearly 10 percent. That’s still pretty great given the year’s dismal box office stats in the category (see chart above).
On the low end was Lionsgate’s “The Divergent Series: Allegiant,” which came in 49 percent lower than the 2015 installment “Insurgent” (which made just over $130 million).
So why is third time not always — or even often — the charm?
“Let’s be honest, going to the well more than once isn’t easy when it comes to blockbuster franchises,” Jeff Bock, senior analyst at Exhibitor Relations, said. “Unfortunately most studios are on cruise control by the time a threequel rolls around. Creatively, most of the series have been worn thin,” he added.
Even worse than “Allegiant” was Sony’s third “Da Vinci Code” movie, “Inferno,” which has amassed little more than $32 million domestically. Compared to 2009’s “Angels & Demons,” which surpassed $133 million, “Inferno” declined steeply by 76 percent. (Of course, the entire series has made the lion’s share of its box office abroad. This time around is no different as the Tom Hanks threequel has grossed nearly $182 million in international territories, representing more than 84 percent of its global take, a percentage split that’s in line with its two predecessors.)
“I think it’s more of a problem of quality,” comScore’s Paul Dergarabedian said of 2016’s disappointing threequels. “I don’t think people really care what numeral is behind the title.”
One would think studio execs should have learned, but 2017 will see at least another nine already-slated threequels: “xXx: The Return of Xander Cage,” “Rings,” “Logan” (which is Fox’s “Wolverine” threequel), “Smurfs: The Lost Village,” “Cars 3,” “Despicable Me 3,” “War for the Planet of the Apes,” “Thor: Ragnarok” and “Pitch Perfect 3.”
“‘xXx3,’ ‘Rings’ and ‘Logan’ are all at the end of the line for their franchises,” noted Bock. “This time starring Vin Diesel, ‘xXx3’ will surely make more than ‘xXx2’ — but that movie was a flat-out fiasco. It certainly won’t deliver ‘Furious’-level grosses for Paramount, and won’t be worth the price of production for the studio, either.”
Bock shared a dismal prediction, saying 2017’s threequel track record will be even worse than 2016’s: “The only one that should actually outperform any of the previous installments is ‘Smurfs: The Lost Village’ — mostly because it’s a complete departure from the original franchise, finally delivering a fully animated toon.” Indeed, Sony is billing it as a complete reboot of the series, which has in the past mixed animation with live action.
Bock’s forecast may be a bit too gloomy, however. There are signs of viability for the “Pitch Perfect” threequel as its second installment made a whopping $120 million more than the 2012 original. Of course, that may prove to be a tough act to follow. Also, the second “Thor” movie made $25 million more than the original.
Here’s hoping Hollywood finds a cure to its threequelitis next year.
Summer Movie Report Card: Will There Be Sequels of 'Finding Dory,' 'Bad Moms,' 'Warcraft'? (Photos)
This was the summer of sequels, but not every follow-up was created equal. "Finding Dory" clearly met a craving the worldwide film audience had for another animated fish adventure, but plenty failed to land. Here's TheWrap's franchise report card.
Various
"Captain America: Civil War" (May 6)
Worldwide Box Office: $1.15 billion
Budget: $250 million
Forecast: No time soon (but not because of box office)
The Disney-Marvel hit surpassed $1 billion worldwide in just three weeks and went on to become the highest grossing movie in the Cap franchise. Yes, there are a ton of Marvel movies in the pipeline, including two Avengers "Infinity Wars" movies featuring Captain America. But those close to the franchise tell TheWrap there are no plans for a follow-up movie starring just Cap -- and reports suggest that Chris Evans (and his onscreen persona, Steve Rogers) may abandon the red-white-and-blue shield in the not-too-distant future.
Marvel
"The Angry Birds Movie" (May 20)
Worldwide Box Office: $347.1 million
Budget: $73 million
Forecast: Up in the air
Video game makers at Rovio are raring to go on an "Angry Birds Movie" sequel, TheWrap has learned. The movie is just awaiting a green light from Sony, which seems likely based on the movie’s $347.1 million worldwide gross. But will "Angry Birds" be relevant several years from now?
Sony
"Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising" (May 20)
Worldwide Box Office: $107.9 million
Budget: $35 million
Forecast: When pigs fly
Universal's "Neighbors 2" "did not live up to expectations, so a sequel may not make sense," a source close to the studio told TheWrap. The sequel made nearly $100 million less at the domestic box office than the first "Neighbors," which was a surprise 2014 hit.
Chuck Zlotnick
"Alice Through the Looking Glass" (May 27)
Worldwide Box Office: $295.1 million
Budget: $170 million
Forecast: When pigs fly
“Alice Through the Looking Glass" was one of the few summer disappointments out of Disney and isn’t being positioned for a sequel, TheWrap has learned. One factor: Lewis Carroll only wrote two "Alice" books.
Disney
"X-Men: Apocalypse" (May 27)
Worldwide Box Office: $542.9 million
Budget: $178 million
Forecast: Definite sequel
20th Century Fox has yet to announce a release date for the next "X-Men," but based on what producer and writer Simon Kinberghas said, audiences will be seeing it as soon as 2019. He needs to clear the decks first on "Deadpool 2" before he can start writing the new "X-Men" script.
Fox
"Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows" (June 3)
Worldwide Box Office: $242.8 million
Budget: $135 million
Forecast: Sequel is a strong possibility
While no official announcements have been made, it's a fairly safe assumption that Paramount will move forward with the "Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles" franchise. The series is a merchandising cash cow despite disappointing box office returns for the 2016 action sequel.
Paramount
"The Conjuring 2" (June 10)
Worldwide Box Office: $319.5 million
Budget: $40 million
Forecast: Sequel is a strong possibility
Another Warner Bros. horror gold mine did $102.5 million domestically and $319.5 million worldwide on a $40 million budget, which makes a third edition a safe bet. The "Conjuring" franchise has already delivered two spin-offs, 2014's "Annabelle" -- which has its own sequel coming next year -- and "The Nun," currently in the works.
New Line
"Now You See Me 2" (June 10)
Worldwide Box Office: $324 million
Budget: $90 million
Forecast: Definite sequel
More than a year before “Now You See Me 2” hit theaters, Lionsgate announced that a third installment was in process. “Now You See Me 2” underperformed the original in most markets, but hit nearly $100 million in China. As a result, “Now You See Me 3” will be a co-production between Lionsgate and China’s Leomus Pictures and will star a mostly Chinese cast.
Lionsgate
"Warcraft" (June 10)
Worldwide Box Office: $433.5 million
Budget: $160 million
Forecast: Sequel is a strong possibility
"Warcraft" was a box office bomb in the U.S., making just $47.2 million on a $160 million budget. But the video game fantasy epic scored big in foreign markets, especially China, where a massive marketing push helped it bring in $220.8 million. Based on that international appeal, a sequel is likely -- although it may not be released in U.S. theaters.
Universal
"Central Intelligence" (June 17)
Worldwide Box Office: $212.6 million
Budget: $50 million
Forecast: Sequel is a strong possibility
New Line's "Central Intelligence" grossed $127.4 million domestically and $212.6 million worldwide on a $50 million budget. Headliners Kevin Hart -- who also starred in "The Secret Life of Pets" -- and Dwayne Johnson are also two of Hollywood's most bankable leading men, so it would be a smart move for them to team up again (though nothing is confirmed yet).
New Line
"Finding Dory" (June 17)
Worldwide Box Office: $930.9 million
Budget: $200 million
Forecast: No time soon (but not because of box office)
"Finding Dory" is the No. 1 movie of the year so far. Disney-Pixar have no plans at the moment for a feature-length sequel, TheWrap has learned. When asked, co-director and co-writer Andrew Stanton has simply said, "We'll see." Pixar has already hit a hard pause button on sequels until roughly 2022.
Pixar
"Independence Day: Resurgence" (June 24)
Worldwide Box Office: $383 million
Budget: $165 million
Forecast: Up in the air
"Independence Day: Resurgence" was a pretty big bomb for Fox domestically, earning $103 million domestically on its steep $165 million budget. But, even without Will Smith reprising his role, it still managed to make a decent $279.5 million abroad. So, while it's likely not at the top of the priority list for Fox, who declined comment, a sequel may not be completely out of the picture.
Claudette Barius
"The Shallows" (June 24)
Worldwide Box Office: $93.3 million
Budget: $17 million
Forecast: Up in the air
"The Shallows," the sea-set thriller starring Blake Lively, opened twice as strong as expected, quickly swimming out of the red during its first few weeks in theaters. But a source close to the project said a sequel is currently in unclear waters.
Sony
"The Legend of Tarzan" (July 1)
Worldwide Box Office: $354.7 million
Budget: $180 million
Forecast: Up in the air
Warner Bros.' Tarzan reboot with Margot Robbie and Alexander Skarsgård made just $354.6 million worldwide on a $180 million budget, but that does not necessarily preclude a follow-up. However, there are only so many novel approaches to take with the familiar Tarzan story.
Warner Bros.
"The Purge: Election Year" (July 1)
Worldwide Box Office: $105.6 million
Budget: $10 million
Forecast: Sequel is a strong possibility
Universal's horror sequel is also in the wait-and-see camp, but the fact that it topped the domestic box office performances of the two previous installments in the series should work in its favor, a source close to the studio told TheWrap.
Universal
"The Secret Life of Pets" (July 8)
Worldwide Box Office: $725.8 million
Budget: $75 million
Forecast: Definite sequel
In a year when animated fare ruled -- Disney's "Finding Dory" remains the No. 1 film of the year -- Universal's "Secret Life of Pets" roared its way to $353.7 million in the U.S. and double that internationally. The movie featuring the voices of Kevin Hart, Louis C.K. and Jenny Slate already has a sequel in development and a release date of July 13, 2018.
Universal
"Ghostbusters" (July 15)
Worldwide Box Office: $217.8 million
Budget: $144 million
Forecast: Up in the air
With an animated feature in the works, the "Ghostbusters" franchise is alive and well at Sony. But, the studio is mum about a follow-up to this summer's female-led reboot, which underperformed at the box office and may trigger a write-down in the range of $50 million.
Sony
"Absolutely Fabulous: The Movie" (July 22)
Worldwide Box Office: $35 million
Budget: n/a
Forecast: When pigs fly
Fox Searchlight's "Absolutely Fabulous: The Movie" did pretty well in the U.K., reeling in $20.9 million. But the film, which topped out at 355 theaters, never caught on in the U.S., sputtering to only $4.7 million -- less than it earned in Australia. American audiences don't appear to be clamoring for a sequel, and the U.K. market is probably not big enough by itself -- unlike China -- to justify one.
Fox Searchlight
"Ice Age: Collision Course" (July 22)
Worldwide Box Office: $373.7 million
Budget: $105 million
Forecast: Up in the air
Even though "Ice Age: Collision Course" underperformed by $100 million against the next lowest grossing movie in the series, it still looks highly probable that a sixth one will be coming from Fox... and a seventh? Do we hear an eighth? Moviegoers can only hope there's no "Ice Age: Retirement Home."
Blue Sky Studios
"Lights Out" (July 22)
Worldwide Box Office: $126.1 million
Budget: $5 million
Forecast: Definite sequel
One of the summer's biggest sleeper hits earned $126 million worldwide on a $5 million budget. So New Line naturally announced plans for a sequel less than one week after the first installment hit theaters.
Ron Batzdorff
"Star Trek Beyond" (July 22)
Worldwide Box Office: $244.2 million
Budget: $185 million
Forecast: Definite sequel
In July, Paramount officially announced a fourth film in the rebooted franchise, with Chris Hemsworth set to appear opposite Chris Pine. The first "Star Trek" earned more than $380 million worldwide in 2009, and 2014's "Star Trek Into Darkness" grossed $460 million. But "Star Trek Beyond" came in below expectations, earning only $243 million worldwide. However, that has not derailed Paramount's plans to make another.
Paramount
"Bad Moms" (July 29)
Worldwide Box Office: $125.4 million
Budget: $20 million
Forecast: Sequel is a strong possibility
STX's R-rated momedy performed so strongly at the box office weekend-over-weekend, "of course" the studio is considering a sequel, a source close to the title told TheWrap.
STX
"Jason Bourne" (July 29)
Worldwide Box Office: $348 million
Budget: $120 million
Forecast: Sequel is a strong possibility
The latest installment in Universal's "Bourne" series "kind of reinvigorated that series, a source close to Universal told TheWrap. But given how long it took Matt Damon and director Paul Greengrass to sign on, the source added, "It's kind of wait-and-see" as far as a sequel. "Jason Bourne" is closing in on $150 million at the domestic box office and has the second-highest worldwide gross out of the five "Bourne" films.
Universal
"Suicide Squad" (Aug. 5)
Worldwide Box Office: $639.2 million
Budget: $175 million
Forecast: Definite sequel
Warner Bros.' DC Comics antihero mashup "Suicide Squad" recorded the biggest August opening ever, but dropped off quickly and won't get close to the magic billion-dollar mark worldwide. That said, a female-driven "Birds of Prey" spinoff centered on Margot Robbie's Harley Quinn is in development, Warner Bros. confirmed. The studio had no comment on possible plans for a pure sequel.
Warner Bros.
"Pete's Dragon" (August 12)
Worldwide Box Office: $78.3 million
Budget: $65 million
Forecast: When pigs fly
"Pete's Dragon" was another rare Disney letdown that also isn’t being targeted for a sequel, TheWrap has learned. With its $65 million budget -- cheap for a Disney film -- and sparse marketing, the movie never seemed to grab much attention even with August's lack of heavyweight box-office competitors.
Disney
"Sausage Party" (August 12)
Worldwide Box Office: $90.6 million
Budget: $19 million
Forecast: Sequel is a strong possibility
Seth Rogen's R-rated animated feature "Sausage Party" exceeded expectations and is definitely being considered for a second serving, TheWrap has learned.
Sony
"Don't Breathe" (August 26)
Worldwide Box Office: $33.7 million
Budget: $9.9 million
Forecast: Up in the air
The Sony horror flick took the air out of its box office competitors, becoming the first August movie to knock "Suicide Squad" from the top of the charts. Sony is hopeful about a sequel, but it's still too early to say for certain.
Sony
"Mechanic: Resurrection" (August 26)
Worldwide Box Office: $9 million
Budget: $40 million
Forecast: Up in the air
The Jason Statham thriller is a follow-up to 2011's "Mechanic," which made $62 million on a $40 million budget. But "Resurrection" had a weaker opening than "Mechanic," and in any event, it's too early to say whether there will be another.
Jack English
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In a summer of sequels, only some made the grade and earned a follow-up
This was the summer of sequels, but not every follow-up was created equal. "Finding Dory" clearly met a craving the worldwide film audience had for another animated fish adventure, but plenty failed to land. Here's TheWrap's franchise report card.
Various
Marvel
