How Will We Know Who's Winning Streaming War if Every Service Counts Views Differently?TheWrap

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How Will We Know Who’s Winning Streaming War if Every Service Counts Views Differently?

by Sean Burch | January 23, 2020 @ 6:00 AM

Netflix changing how it counts views shows there is little rhyme or reason to measuring how shows perform

The days of comparing ratings are nearly extinct, now verging on becoming a bygone relic of when “Seinfeld” versus “Home Improvement” was measured.

As more customers ditch traditional TV for streaming, services are coming up with their own ways to measure success — and this data is only rarely shared with the public.

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This became especially clear this week after Netflix changed how it calculates views. The streaming heavyweight had been counting a “view” after 70% of a show or movie was watched; now, Netflix counts a view after 2 minutes of content are streamed. Netflix admitted the new metric “is about 35% higher on average than the prior metric,” helping to inflate the already-guarded viewer data it seldom reveals.

Netflix didn’t waste time using the new measurement to trumpet some of its recent successes: In its letter to shareholders on Tuesday, Netflix boasted “The Witcher,” the Henry Cavill-led fantasy show, was watched by 76 million households in its first month, making it the biggest first season debut in the service’s history.

Moving forward, the question becomes: without a universal agreement on what counts as a view, is it going to be harder to tell who’s winning and losing in streaming?

“There are a lot of gray metrics,” Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said, “and with the streaming wars heating up, measurement and apples to apples comparisons will be more difficult.”

Also Read: Netflix Crime Series Have More Negative Depictions of People of Color Than 5 Other Top Networks

It’s already difficult to track. Here’s what we know: Netflix now counts views after 2 minutes; Hulu counts a view once 10% of a show — or about three minutes worth of a half-hour show — has been watched, according to someone familiar with the company’s data tracking; Facebook counts a view for its Watch shows after three seconds. Each company is leaning into its own definition of what a “view” is.

There’s even more we don’t know about viewer data at rival services. Amazon Prime Video notoriously refrains from sharing any viewer data or defining how it counts views. A rep for Quibi, the upcoming mobile-only streaming service, declined to comment on how the company will count views. The same goes for Peacock, and a rep for HBO Max did not respond to a request for comment. And it’s not worth holding your breath waiting for Disney+ to share any viewer data.

“We don’t have a huge amount of plans yet to release audience data,” Disney+ boss Kevin Mayer said in November. “If we decide it’s needed, either if our audience really desires it or our creative partners really need it, or our distribution partners. We’ll consider that from time to time, but right now no plans to release a substantial amount of data.”

With more companies joining the streaming market and less viewer data being shared, the picture is only getting more obscure when it comes to which shows are truly resonating. In the past, Nielsen was the go-to firm for tracking ratings, but it’s ubiquity has faded away in the streaming age. Nielsen, for about two years, has been tracking views for Netflix’s shows and recently announced it can now do the same for Prime Video. Yet Nielsen has only occasionally released its Netflix viewer data to this point, and Netflix has pushed back on the firm’s ability to track its shows when it does, saying Nielsen’s viewer data was “not even close” to being correct.

The viewer enigma has left analysts turning towards the one great equalizer: subscriber count.

“We believe subscribers are the hearts and lungs of success and many other metrics are secondary,” Ives said.

Also Read: TV Execs Predict How Streaming Will Shake Out in 2020: ‘It Will Be Like ‘The Hangover”

Paul Hardart, a former Warner Bros. executive and current head of the Entertainment, Media and Technology Program at NYU, agreed, saying the “key metric” for services “remains subscriber acquisition and retention”; this is an “implicit reflection of utility,” Hardart added.

That’s what it boils down to. Services are banking on viewers not caring about how many other viewers stream their favorite shows; the fans just care about whether they’re enjoying the show or not. These services are also betting investors and analysts don’t care as much about views as they do subscribers. As long as customers are voting with their wallets and not canceling their subscriptions, the rest is ancillary. The one exception to this could turn out to be Peacock. Considering it’ll feature two ad-supported subscription options, NBCU could be forced to be more transparent than its competitors in order to woo advertisers.

One casualty in this shift towards a post-ratings landscape will be content creators. This move has shifted the power balance towards the streaming services, former ABC Daytime chief Brian Frons told TheWrap last year. With more shows available than ever before, services are able to either keep creators in the dark on performance or share internal data that pales in comparison to traditional metrics for huge shows.

“Program makers will always want to know if their shows are important to the platform, but given the high volume of shows on all the platforms, ratings will not give suppliers the leverage it would in the heyday of network television if one was the supplier of ‘ER,’ ‘Friends’ or ‘Big Bang Theory,'” Frons said.

Right now, it’s evident the absence of a comprehensive metric for measuring views across services is leaving viewers, analysts and creators in the dark. And with little reason to be more forthcoming, it’s unlikely these ad-free services will change.

“Because streaming services are so new comparatively to pay TV, there is little regulation or transparency across services. It offers streaming services more flexibility in how they highlight success if their service is succeeding,” IHC Markit analyst Sarah Henschel said. “If as an industry, we can come together to define paid subs, churn rates, various view definitions, etc. there will be a much clearer picture of what strategies work best. Unfortunately, there is little incentivization for companies to release this data on their own without a great third party equalizer.”

Tony Maglio and Tim Baysinger contributed to this report.

Winter TV 2020: Premiere Dates for New and Returning Shows (Photos)

Winter is well underway and with it, naturally, comes the Winter TV season. In honor of the colder months and their small-screen offerings, TheWrap has rounded up the premiere dates for not just the new and returning shows on Fox, ABC, NBC, CBS and The CW, but also the ones for the eagerly anticipated series hitting cable channels and streaming services this winter. Click through our gallery to find out when your favorite winter shows will be back and when your possible new favorites will debut.

Also Read: Why Netflix Is Betting You’ll Want ‘The Witcher’ Season 2 – Before You’ve Seen Season 1
ABC/AMC/NBC/Netflix
Series: "Dracula" Net: Netflix Premiere Date: Saturday, Jan. 4 Time: N/A
Netflix
Series: "Say Yes to the Dress: America" Net: TLC Premiere Date: Saturday, Jan. 4 Time: 8 p.m.
TLC
Series: "Sister Wives" Net: TLC Premiere Date: Sunday, Jan. 5 Time: 8 p.m.
TLC
Series: "Naked and Afraid: Alone" Net: Discovery Channel Premiere Date: Sunday, Jan. 5 Time: 10 p.m.
Discovery Channel
Series: "America's Got Talent: The Champions" Net: NBC Premiere Date: Monday, Jan. 6 Time: 8 p.m.
NBC
Series: "The Bachelor" Net: ABC Premiere Date: Monday, Jan. 6 Time: 8 p.m.
ABC
Series: "Love & Hip Hop: Miami" Net: VH1 Premiere Date: Monday, Jan. 6 Time: 9 p.m.
VH1
Series: "Manifest" Net: NBC Premiere Date: Monday, Jan. 6 Time: 10 p.m.
NBC
Series: "Ellen's Game of Games" Net: NBC Premiere Date: Tuesday, Jan. 7 Time: 8 p.m.
NBC
Series: "Jeopardy: The Greatest of All Time" Net: ABC Premiere Date: Tuesday, Jan. 7 Time: 8 p.m.
ABC
Series: "Nick Cannon Presents: Wild N' Out" Net: VH1 Premiere Date: Tuesday, Jan. 7 Time: 8 p.m.
VH1
Series: "Gordon Ramsay's 24 Hours to Hell and Back" Net: Fox Premiere Date: Tuesday, Jan. 7 Time: 9 p.m.
Fox
Series: "The Haves and the Have Nots" Net: OWN Premiere Date: Tuesday, Jan. 7 Time: 9 p.m.
OWN
Series: "Schitt's Creek" Net: Pop TV Premiere Date: Tuesday, Jan. 7 Time: 9 p.m.
Pop TV
Series: "Vanderpump Rules" Net: Bravo Premiere Date: Tuesday, Jan. 7 Time: 9 p.m.
Bravo
Series: "FBI: Most Wanted" Net: CBS Premiere Date: Tuesday, Jan. 7 Time: 10 p.m.
CBS
Series: "Zoey's Extraordinary Playlist" Net: NBC Premiere Date: Tuesday, Jan. 7 Time: 10 p.m.
NBC
Series: "Cheer" Net: Netflix Premiere Date: Wednesday, Jan. 8 Time: N/A
Netflix
Series: "Undercover Boss" Net: CBS Premiere Date: Wednesday, Jan. 8 Time: 8 p.m.
CBS
Series: "Catfish: The TV Show" Net: MTV Premiere Date: Wednesday, Jan. 8 Time: 8 p.m.
MTV
Series: "Criminal Minds" Net: CBS Premiere Date: Wednesday, Jan. 8 Time: 9 p.m.
CBS
Series: "America's Top Dog" Net: A&E Premiere Date: Wednesday, Jan. 8 Time: 9 p.m.
A&E
Series: "Party of Five" Net: Freeform Premiere Date: Wednesday, Jan. 8 Time: 9 p.m.
Freeform
Series: "Medical Police" Net: Netflix Premiere Date: Friday, Jan. 10 Time: N/A
Netflix
Series: "AJ & The Queen" Net: Netflix Premiere Date: Friday, Jan. 10 Time: N/A
Netflix
Series: "Lincoln Rhyme: Hunt for the Bone Collector" Net: NBC Premiere Date: Friday, Jan. 10 Time: 8 p.m.
NBC
Series: "The Outsider" Net: HBO Premiere Date: Sunday, Jan. 12 Time: 9 p.m.
HBO
Series: "The New Pope" Net: HBO Premiere Date: Monday, Jan. 13 Time: 9 p.m.
HBO
Series: "Grace & Frankie" Net: Netflix Premiere Date: Wednesday, Jan. 15 Time: N/A
Netflix
Series: "The Magicians" Net: Syfy Premiere Date: Wednesday, Jan. 15 Time: 10 p.m.
Syfy
Series: "68 Whiskey" Net: Paramount Network Premiere Date: Wednesday, Jan. 15 Time: 10 p.m.
Paramount Network
Series: "Listing Impossible" Net: CNBC Premiere Date: Wednesday, Jan. 15 Time: 10 p.m.
CNBC
Series: "Killer Inside: The Mind of Aaron Hernandez" Net: Netflix Premiere Date: Wednesday, Jan. 15 Time: N/A
Netflix
Series: "Grown-ish" Net: Freeform Premiere Date: Thursday, Jan. 16 Time: 8 p.m.
Freeform
Series: "Everything's Gonna Be Okay" Net: Freeform Premiere Date: Thursday, Jan. 16 Time: 8:30 p.m.
Freeform
Series: "Little America" Net: Apple TV+ Premiere Date: Friday, Jan. 17 Time: N/A
Apple TV+
Series: "Diary of a Future President" Net: Disney+ Premiere Date: Friday, Jan. 17 Time: N/A
Disney+
Series: "Sex Education" Net: Netflix Premiere Date: Friday, Jan. 17 Time: N/A
Netflix
Series: "Seven Worlds, One Planet" Net: BBC America Premiere Date: Saturday, Jan. 18 Time: 9 p.m.
BBC America
Series: "Avenue 5" Net: HBO Premiere Date: Sunday, Jan. 19 Time: 10 p.m.
HBO
Series: "9-1-1: Lone Star" Net: Fox Premiere Date: Sunday, Jan. 19 Time: 10 p.m.
Fox
Series: "Curb Your Enthusiasm" Net: HBO Premiere Date: Sunday, Jan. 19 Time: 10:30 p.m.
HBO
Series: "Brain Games" Net: Nat Geo Premiere Date: Monday, Jan. 20 Time: 9 p.m.
Nat Geo
Series: "Home Town" Net: HGTV Premiere Date: Monday, Jan. 20 Time: 9 p.m.
HGTV
Series: "DC's Legends of Tomorrow" Net: The CW Premiere Date: Tuesday, Jan. 21 Time: 9 p.m.
The CW
Series: "Project Blue Book" Net: History Channel Premiere Date: Tuesday, Jan. 21 Time: 10 p.m.
History
Series: "Awkwafina Is Nora From Queens" Net: Comedy Central Premiere Date: Wednesday, Jan. 22 Time: 10:30 p.m.
Comedy Central
Series: "Star Trek: Picard" Net: CBS All Access Premiere Date: Thursday, Jan. 23 Time: N/A
CBS All Access
Series: "Station 19" Net: ABC Premiere Date: Thursday, Jan. 23 Time: 8 p.m.
ABC
Series: "Outmatched" Net: Fox Premiere Date: Thursday, Jan. 23 Time: 8:30 p.m.
Fox
Series: "The Bold Type" Net: Freeform Premiere Date: Thursday, Jan. 23 Time: 9 p.m.
Freeform
Series: "Chilling Adventures of Sabrina" Net: Netflix Premiere Date: Friday, Jan. 24 Time: N/A
Netflix
Series: "The Ranch" Net: Netflix Premiere Date: Friday, Jan. 24 Time: N/A
Netflix
Series: "Shrill" Net: Hulu Premiere Date: Friday, Jan. 24 Time: N/A
Hulu
Series: "Goop Lab with Gwyneth Paltrow" Net: Netflix Premiere Date: Friday, Jan. 24 Time: N/A
Netflix
Series: "The Circus" Net: Showtime Premiere Date: Sunday, Jan. 26 Time: 8 p.m.
Showtime
Series: "Our Cartoon President" Net: Showtime Premiere Date: Sunday, Jan. 26 Time: 8:30 p.m.
Showtime
Series: "Justin Bieber: Seasons" Net: YouTube Premiere Date: Monday, Jan. 27 Time: N/A
YouTube
Series: "Biggest Loser" Net: USA Network Premiere Date: Tuesday, Jan. 28 Time: 9 p.m.
USA Network
Series: "Miracle Workers: Dark Ages" Net: TBS Premiere Date: Tuesday, Jan. 28 Time: 10:30 p.m.
TBS
Series: "Next in Fashion" Net: Netflix Premiere Date: Wednesday, Jan. 29 Time: N/A
Netflix
Series: "Miz & Mrs." Net: USA Network Premiere Date: Wednesday, Jan. 29 Time: 10 p.m.
USA Network
Series: "The Stranger" Net: Netflix Premiere Date: Thursday, Jan. 30 Time: N/A
Netflix
Series: "BoJack Horseman" Net: Netflix Premiere Date: Friday, Jan. 31 Time: N/A
Netflix
Series: "Ted Bundy: Falling for a Killer" Net: Amazon Prime Video Premiere Date: Friday, Jan. 31 Time: N/A
Amazon Prime Video
Series: "Ragnorak" Net: Netflix Premiere Date: Friday, Jan. 31 Time: N/A
Netflix
Series: "The Masked Singer" Net: Fox Premiere Date: Sunday, Feb. 2 Time: 10:30 p.m.
Fox
Series: "Manhunt: Deadly Games" Net: Spectrum Premiere Date: Monday, Feb. 3 Time: N/A
Spectrum
Series: "McMillions" Net: HBO Premiere Date: Monday, Feb. 3 Time: 10 p.m.
HBO
Series: "Desus & Mero" Net: Showtime Premiere Date: Monday, Feb. 3 Time: 11 p.m.
Showtime
Series: "Lego Masters" Net: Fox Premiere Date: Wednesday, Feb. 5 Time: 9 p.m.
Getty
Series: "Interrogation" Net: CBS All Access Premiere Date: Thursday, Feb. 6 Time: N/A
CBS All Access
Series: "Katy Keene" Net: The CW Premiere Date: Thursday, Feb. 6 Time: 8 p.m.
The CW
Series: "Brooklyn Nine-Nine" Net: NBC Premiere Date: Thursday, Feb. 6 Time: 8 p.m.
NBC
Series: "The Sinner" Net: USA Network Premiere Date: Thursday, Feb. 6 Time: 9 p.m.
USA Network
Series: "Indebted" Net: NBC Premiere Date: Thursday, Feb. 6 Time: 9:30 p.m.
NBC
Series: "Tommy" Net: CBS Premiere Date: Thursday, Feb. 6 Time: 10 p.m.
CBS
Series: "Briarpatch" Net: USA Network Premiere Date: Thursday, Feb. 6 Time: 10 p.m.
USA Network
Series: "Mythic Quest: Raven's Banquet" Net: Apple TV+ Premiere Date: Friday, Feb. 7 Time: N/A
Apple TV+
Series: "Locke & Key" Net: Netflix Premiere Date: Friday, Feb. 7 Time: N/A
Netflix
Series: "MacGyver" Net: CBS Premiere Date: Friday, Feb. 7 Time: 8 p.m.
CBS
Series: "High Maintenance" Net: HBO Premiere Date: Friday, Feb. 7 Time: 11 p.m.
HBO
Series: "Homeland" Net: Showtime Premiere Date: Sunday, Feb. 9 Time: 9 p.m.
Showtime
Series: "Kidding" Net: Showtime Premiere Date: Sunday, Feb. 9 Time: 10 p.m.
Showtime
Series: "Cherish the Day" Net: OWN Premiere Date: Tuesday, Feb. 11 Time: 10 p.m.
OWN
Series: "For Life" Net: ABC Premiere Date: Tuesday, Feb. 11 Time: 10 p.m.
ABC
Series: "Survivor" Net: CBS Premiere Date: Wednesday, Feb. 12 Time: 8 p.m.
CBS
Series: "The Soup" Net: E! Premiere Date: Wednesday, Feb. 12 Time: 10 p.m.
E!
Series: "Narcos: Mexico" Net: Netflix Premiere Date: Thursday, Feb. 13 Time: N/A
Netflix
Series: "Love Is Blind" Net: Netflix Premiere Date: Thursday, Feb. 13 Time: N/A
Netflix
Series: "High Fidelity" Net: Hulu Premiere Date: Friday, Feb. 14 Time: N/A
Hulu
Series: "Utopia Falls" Net: Hulu Premiere Date: Friday, Feb. 14 Time: n/A
Hulu
Series: "Visible: Out on Television" Net: Apple TV+ Premiere Date: Friday, Feb. 14 Time: N/A
Apple TV+
Series: "Outlander" Net: Starz Premiere Date: Sunday, Feb. 16 Time: 8 p.m.
Starz
Series: "American Idol" Net: ABC Premiere Date: Sunday, Feb. 16 Time: 8 p.m.
ABC
Series: "Duncanville" Net: Fox Premiere Date: Sunday, Feb. 16 Time: 8:30 p.m.
Fox
Series: "Extreme Makeover: Home Edition" Net: HGTV Premiere Date: Sunday, Feb. 16 Time: 9 p.m.
HGTV
Series: "Good Girls" Net: NBC Premiere Date: Sunday, Feb. 16 Time: 10 p.m.
NBC
Series: "Last Week Tonight With John Oliver" Net: HBO Premiere Date: Sunday, Feb. 16 Time: 11 p.m.
HBO
Series: "Sacred Lies" Net: Facebook Watch Premiere Date: Thursday, Feb. 20 Time: N/A
Facebook Watch
Series: "The Chef Show" Net: Netflix Premiere Date: Wednesday, Feb. 19 Time: N/A
Netflix
Series: "Gentefied" Net: Netflix Premiere Date: Friday, Feb. 21 Time: N/A
Netflix
Series: "Hunters" Net: Amazon Prime Video Premiere Date: Friday, Feb. 21 Time: N/A
Amazon Prime Video
Series: "Better Call Saul" Net: AMC Premiere Date: Sunday, Feb. 23 Time: 10 p.m.
AMC
Series: "The Voice" Net: NBC Premiere Date: Monday, Feb. 24 Time: 8 p.m.
NBC
Series: "Little Big Shots" Net: NBC Premiere Date: Monday, Feb. 24 Time: 10 p.m.
NBC
Series: "I Am Not Okay With This" Net: Netflix Premiere Date: Wednesday, Feb. 26 Time: N/A
Netflix
Series: "Altered Carbon" Net: Netflix Premiere Date: Thursday, Feb. 27 Time: N/A
Netflix
Series: "Jersey Shore: Family Vacation" Net: MTV Premiere Date: Thursday, Feb. 27 Time: 8 p.m.
MTV
Series: "RuPaul's Drag Race" Net: Vh1 Premiere Date: Friday, Feb. 28 Time: 8 p.m.
Vh1
Series: "Dispatches From Elsewhere" Net: AMC Premiere Date: Sunday, March 1 Time: 10 p.m.
AMC
Series: "Breeders" Net: FX Premiere Date: Monday, March 2 Time: 10 p.m.
FX
Series: "Twenties" Net: BET Premiere Date: Wednesday, March 4 Time: 10 p.m.
BET
Series: "The Deed: Chicago" Net: CNBC Premiere Date: Wednesday, March 4 Time: 10 p.m.
CNBC
Series: "Dave" Net: FXX Premiere Date: Wednesday, March 4 Time: 10 p.m.
FXX
Series: "Castlevania" Net: Netflix Premiere Date: Thursday, March 5 Time: N/A
Netflix
Series: "Devs" Net: FX on Hulu Premiere Date: Thursday, March 5 Time: N/A
FX
Series: "Better Things" Net: FX Premiere Date: Thursday, March 5 Time: 10 p.m.
FX
Series: "Cake" Net: FXX Premiere Date: Thursday, March 5 Time: 10 p.m.
FXX
Series: "Amazing Stories" Net: Apple TV+ Premiere Date: Friday, March 6 Time: N/A
Apple TV+
Series: "Hillary" Net: Hulu Premiere Date: Friday, March 6 Time: N/A
Hulu
Series: "The Most Dangerous Animal of All" Net: FX Premiere Date: Friday, March 6 Time: 10 p.m.
FX
Series: "Ride With Norman Reedus" Net: AMC Premiere Date: Sunday, March 8 Time: 11 p.m.
AMC
Series: "Cosmos: Possible Worlds" Net: Nat Geo Premiere Date: Monday, March 9 Time: 9 p.m.
Nat Geo
Series: "Council of Dads" Net: NBC Premiere Date: Tuesday, March 10 Time: 10 p.m.
NBC
Series: "On My Block" Net: Netflix Premiere Date: Wednesday, March 11 Time: N/A
Netflix
Series: "Elite" Net: Netflix Premiere Date: Friday, March 13 Time: N/A
Netflix
Series: "Flack" Net: Pop TV Premiere Date: Friday, March 13 Time: 10 p.m.
Pop TV
Series: "The Wall" Net: NBC Premiere Date: Sunday, March 15 Time: 7 p.m.
NBC
Series: "Westworld" Net: HBO Premiere Date: Sunday, March 15 Time: 9 p.m.
HBO
Series: "Black Monday" Net: Showtime Premiere Date: Sunday, March 15 Time: 10 p.m.
Showtime
Series: "Roswell, New Mexico" Net: The CW Premiere Date: Monday, March 16 Time: 9 p.m.
The CW
Series: "The Plot Against America" Net: HBO Premiere Date: Monday, March 16 Time: 9 p.m.
HBO
Series: "My Brilliant Friend" Net: HBO Premiere Date: Monday, March 16 Time: 10 p.m.
HBO
Series: "Motherland: Fort Salem" Net: Freeform Premiere Date: Wednesday, March 18 Time: 9 p.m.
Freeform
Series: "Little Fires Everywhere" Net: Hulu Premiere Date: Wednesday, March 18 Time: N/A
Hulu
Series: "Brockmire" Net: IFC Premiere Date: Wednesday, March 18 Time: 10 p.m.
IFC

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Here’s when 137 broadcast, cable and streaming series debut and come back

Winter is well underway and with it, naturally, comes the Winter TV season. In honor of the colder months and their small-screen offerings, TheWrap has rounded up the premiere dates for not just the new and returning shows on Fox, ABC, NBC, CBS and The CW, but also the ones for the eagerly anticipated series hitting cable channels and streaming services this winter. Click through our gallery to find out when your favorite winter shows will be back and when your possible new favorites will debut.

Also Read: Why Netflix Is Betting You’ll Want ‘The Witcher’ Season 2 – Before You’ve Seen Season 1

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