At the Oscars, only the Best Picture award means much at the box office. The same is true for the Tonys with its Best Musical award. Unfortunately, the 2025-26 theater season’s new musicals, both on and off Broadway, were so weak that the New York Drama Critics’ Circle, of which I’m a member, did not give an award for Best Musical this spring.
That slap aside, Cinco Paul’s “Schmigadoon!” will win the big prize at the 79th Tony Awards because the organization’s largest voting block — hundreds of out-of-town presenters — will choose it for Best Musical. They want to give the Tony imprimatur to a show they can sell to their subscriber base in theaters from Boston to Los Angeles. Paul’s send-up of classic musicals — the original TV version was first seen on Apple TV in 2021 — is the perfect middle-of-the-road show for Middle America’s subscriber audiences.
“The Lost Boys” has a shot, but out-of-town presenters know that a touring production can’t feature this show’s best feature: all those elevators that carry actors, as well as gargantuan sets, up and down the Palace Theatre’s stage. The most frightening thing about this vampire musical is whether any of the actors will be crushed by a descending living room, or, more likely, fall into an elevator shaft.
“Two Strangers (Who Carry a Cake Across New York)” is a better Best Musical choice both artistically and commercially. Unlike “Schmigadoon!” and “The Lost Boys,” which have TV or movie pedigree, “Two Strangers” needs name recognition to tour, and since the show is a two-hander — in other words, cheap to present — it would be a perfect fit for those theaters beyond the Hudson River.
Cinco Paul also looks to win for Best Score and Book of a Musical. As a member of the Drama Critics Circle, I do vote for the Tonys and my picks are Jim Barne and Kit Buchan’s score for “Two Strangers” and the book for “Titanique,” written by Marla Mindelle, Constantine Rousouli and Tye Blue.
Pink to Host 2026 Tony Awards
The 2026 Pulitzer Prize went to Bess Wohl’s “Liberation,” and that might be enough to secure it the Tony for Best Play. This top honor hasn’t gone to a female playwright since 2009 when Yasmina Rez won for “God of Carnage,” and the Tonys haven’t given it to an American female playwright since 1989 when Wendy Wasserstein won for “The Heidi Chronicles.” The theater community will want to honor a woman, and, more important, Wohl wrote the Broadway season’s best new play.
Wendy White directed “Liberation,” and deserves to win for Best Director of a Play. The award will go instead to Joe Mantello for “Death of a Salesman.” He has the advantage of having also directed Samuel D. Hunter’s “Little Bear Ridge Road,” nominated for Best Play.
Directors of revivals tend to win over directors of new works. It’s less obvious what directors do with something original like “Liberation” or “Ridge Road” than when they stage an old warhorse like “Salesman,” the set now reduced to Willy Loman’s red Chevy, or “Cats,” now taking place in an uptown ballroom where drag artists compete.
For that reason, the Tony for Best Director of a Musical will go to Zhailon Levingston and Bill Rauch for their colorful overhaul of “Cats,” now given a subtitle, “The Jellicle Ball.” Their drag concept is very interesting — for about 15 minutes. The award should go to Sam Pinkleton for his creepy-fun revival of “The Rocky Horror Show,” but he won in 2025 for directing the comedy “Oh, Mary!” Also, the Tonys forgot to nominate him this year.
Best Revival of a Musical will be a photo finish between “Cats” and “Ragtime,” with “Rocky Horror” more deserving of the prize. Those aforementioned out-of-town presenters might tip this contest to “Ragtime,” since the new LGBTQ+ “Cats” is a bit too much for their conservative subscribers.
Arthur Miller’s “Death of Salesman” looks likely to win for Best Revival of a Play, but don’t be surprised if the Tony goes to the far superior revival of Gina Gionfriddo’s “Becky Shaw.” In the recent past, Tony voters have used this award to honor living playwrights. While a few of the following have since passed away, Tony liked honoring artists who could accept the award in person. They were Tony Kushner (“Angels in America,” 2018), Mart Crowley (“The Boys in the Band,” 2019), Charles Fuller (“A Soldier’s Play,” 2020-21), Richard Greenberg (“Take Me Out,” 2022), Suzan-Lori Parks (“Top Dog/Under Dog”, 2023), Branden Jacobs-Jenkins (“Appropriate,” 2024) and Jonathan Spector (“Eureka Day,” 2025). One has to go back to 2017 for the Tonys to have picked a deceased playwright: August Wilson for “Jitney.” The other thing “Becky Shaw” has in its favor is a popular producing entity, Second Stage, whereas the lead producer of “Salesman” is the controversial Scott Rudin, who returned to Broadway this season after an extended sabbatical.
Joshua Henry (“Ragtime”) will win for Best Actor in a Musical. Many theatergoers and critics love his big performance. For me, he represents how musical theater has turned itself into another episode of “American Idol.” When singers hold on to a high note, begging the audience for applause mid-song, the music is not only thrown out of whack. The integrity of the performance damaged. I go to musicals to hear people sing, not to hear people applaud.
I much prefer Sam Tutty for “Two Strangers.” When he opened in the show last autumn, a star was born.
The five nominees for Best Actress in a Musical might be the weakest bunch in decades, and the Tony nominating committee is to blame. They could have picked Kristin Chenoweth for “The Queen of Versailles” and Lea Michele for “Chess,” but failed. Caissie Levy has a good shot, but I found the whole “Ragtime” revival loud, ponderous and pretentious. A comic anecdote is desperately needed, so I’m voting for Marla Mindell. Her Celine Dion send-up in “Titanique” rocks the St. James after doing the same for almost a decade at downtown theaters.
A loyal bunch of Anglophiles, the Tony voters won’t pass up the opportunity to honor Lesley Manville for “Oedipus,” a Real Prestige Project all the way. The Brits haven’t had this obvious a pick since Simon Russell Beale won for “The Lehman Trilogy” four years ago. Unfortunately, the New York theater community won’t give the award to one of their own. My pick is Susannah Flood for “Liberation.”
John Lithgow will be picked Best Actor in a Play for “Giant.” He’s great, but even more wonderful are Alden Ehrenreich for “Becky Shaw” and Ruben Santiago-Hudson for “Joe Turner’s Come and Gone,” both of whom ended up in the Feature Actor category despite their essaying lead roles.
Ehrenreich will win for Best Featured in a Play, and deserves to, as does Santiago-Hudson. Two great performances.
Sentiment will reign when it comes to picking the winners for Best Featured Actor in a Musical and Best Featured Actress in a Play. Those awards will go to, respectively, 80-year-old Andre De Shields for “Cats” and 96-year-old June Squibb for “Marjorie Prime.” One can’t argue with the awesomeness of those two long, storied careers. The awards, however, should go to Layton Williams for “Titanique” and Betsy Aidem for “Liberation,” who gave one of the season’s great double-cast performances.
Rachel Dratch in “The Rocky Horror Show” deserves to win for her witty crossdressing turn as the Narrator in this musical revival. This is her second Tony nomination, but Shoshana Bean has three nominations and will probably win for her generic mother in “The Lost Boys.”
CBS telecasts the Tony Awards.
