Disney/Lucasfilm’s “The Mandalorian and Grogu” is having a “is the glass half-full or half-empty” sort of weekend at the Memorial Day weekend box office, earning a 3-day start of $82 million domestic and $165 million worldwide.
The glass half-empty view is that this start, which industry estimates have extending domestically into a $102 million 4-day start, is roughly what “Solo: A Star Wars Story” opened to on Memorial Day weekend in 2018 before going on to gross a franchise live-action low $392 million worldwide.
“Mandalorian and Grogu” has a chance to avoid that fate with better legs over the coming weeks, but even in the best-case scenario it is looking at a box office total similar to the $521.8 million that Marvel’s “The Fantastic Four: First Steps” opened to a year ago, well shy of the record-breaking pedigree of “Star Wars.”
Another worrying trend is that 27% of the film’s audience is under the age of 25, compared to 37% for “Star Wars: The Last Jedi” in 2017. That suggests that the “Star Wars” fanbase is starting to skew older, as the interest in “Star Wars” handed down from generation to generation might not be picked up as strongly by Gen Alpha kids.
The half-full read is that “Mandalorian and Grogu,” fanboy online grumbling aside, has been generally well received with an A- on CinemaScore, 4.5/5 overall on PostTrak, and Rotten Tomatoes scores of 62% critics and 89% audience, raising the chances of a box office endurance provided that it can withstand competition from early June titles like “Masters of the Universe” and “Scary Movie” aimed at Gen X and Millennial nostalgia.
“Mandalorian and Grogu” should also drive plenty of ancillary revenue through Baby Yoda merch, home platform revenue, and renewed interest in “Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge” at Disneyland and Walt Disney World, where the ride “Millennium Falcon: Smuggler’s Run” has been updated to include the main duo from the film.
But while “Star Wars” will drive much of the box office conversation, the most jaw-dropping result comes from Focus Features’ “Obsession,” which has earned an unbelievable $22.4 million 3-day/$28.2 million 4-day second weekend after opening to $17.1 million.
That is a 30% increase from the film’s opening weekend, marking the third best second weekend hold ever by percentage outside of November and December, when strong second weekend holds are common thanks to pre-Thanksgiving/Christmas openings. The only two films with higher second weekend percentage increases outside of that period are Angel’s “Sound of Freedom” in July 2023 and Open Road’s ‘Mother’s Day” in 2016.
Through Monday, “Obsession” has an estimated domestic total of $58.5 million; and depending on how it holds against A24’s “Backrooms,” which is projected for a $18-20 million opening, it could get as high as the $151 million domestic total of “Weapons” last year.
The good news continues with the rest of the May holdovers, which have combined with “Mandalorian” and “Obsession” to defy expectations of a weaker-than-usual holiday weekend. While studio sources projected an overall 4-day total of around $190 million, current estimates now have the weekend standing at $219 million, just below the $223 million overall total of 2022, when “Top Gun: Maverick” did all the heavy lifting with a $160 million 4-day opening.
More to come…