Franchises find a way. With three weeks to go until the release of “Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom,” the sequel to the 2015 dinosaur megahit is looking at an opening weekend of $130-$150 million.
“Jurassic World” became one of the biggest box office hits of all-time three years ago, standing as one of only six films to ever post an opening weekend of more than $200 million with its $208 million launch. It’s also one of only seven films to gross $1 billion outside the U.S. And with a global total of $1.67 billion, it held the record for the highest grossing summer release ever until “Avengers: Infinity War” passed it earlier this month.
However, as today’s tracking shows, “Fallen Kingdom” isn’t expected to match the results of its predecessor. Similar to “Star Wars: The Force Awakens,” “Jurassic World” had the anticipation that comes with being the first installment in its franchise in more than a decade.
“Fallen Kingdom” won’t have that advantage, though there will still be hopes for the film to reach $1 billion worldwide. Domestically, an opening weekend 30 percent down from “Jurassic World”‘s opening — in other worlds, in the $140 million range — would be a strong result for the sequel. “Fallen Kingdom” is on course to hit that target based on this first round of tracking, though current estimates could change substantially as the release date nears.
To get to $1 billion, Universal will start rolling out the film overseas this coming Wednesday in 48 countries, two weeks before the film’s U.S. release. Among those countries are France, Germany, Korea, Netherlands, Russia, Spain, U.K., and UAE.
This early release is being done to give the film a week in theaters before the start of the FIFA World Cup, which traditionally weighs down overseas releases as audiences eschew the cinema in favor of watching the tournament. China, which contributed $228 million to the overseas totals for “Jurassic World,” will get “Fallen Kingdom” on June 15; while the U.S. will open day-and-date with Australia, Mexico, and South American markets.
The sequel sees Chris Pratt and Bryce Dallas Howard return as the survivors of the Jurassic World massacre, Owen Grady and Claire Dearing. The dinosaurs have been living alone on Isla Nublar for three years, but when Claire discovers that a volcano eruption will soon kill them all, she persuades Owen to help her rescue them. Unfortunately, the pair are blindsided by an organization who plans to capture the dinosaurs for their own evil ends.
James Cromwell also stars in the film, with original “Jurassic Park” stars B.D. Wong and Jeff Goldblum returning as scientists Henry Wu and Ian Malcolm in cameo roles. J.A. Bayona (“A Monster Calls”) directed the film, with Colin Trevorrow returning as executive producer and writer for the film, sharing script credit with writing partner Derek Connolly. Steven Spielberg is also attached as executive producer.