After Oscars, ABC Will Still Be Last in Viewers

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After Oscars, ABC Will Remain Last in Viewers Among Big 4 – But Maybe Not in Key Demo

by Tony Maglio | February 7, 2020 @ 12:05 PM

Battle for ratings bronze in 18-49 demographic is close this season

Hope your tux is pressed because the 92nd Academy Awards are this weekend. More than 3,000 people will watch the Oscars from inside L.A.’s Dolby Theater, tens of millions will from home.

But what should longtime host network ABC actually expect on Sunday, TV audience-wise?

As recently as 2014, the Oscars were drawing more than 40 million viewers. But that’s certainly not going to happen this time.

Also Read: What Cable Show Is the Most Watched on Super Bowl Sunday?

Over the past two years, the Academy Awards’ television audience has dipped below 30 million viewers, according to Nielsen. Don’t totally crucify 2019’s show, however, because it added almost 3 million viewers from the 2018 Oscars. That is a win, one that can be attributed to a better mix of nominees — mainly “Black Panther” and a few other big box office hits — and the initial intrigue of a hostless show.

But the crop of 2020 films that got nods were more modest in terms of ticket sales, and the buzz surrounding them is also way down. And while there’s again no host this year, the bloom is mostly off the rose with that plan. (Except the part where it keeps the long awards show moving. We all like that aspect.)

Also Read: Oscars 2020: A Great Year in Film Means a Packed Party Schedule

Of course we don’t know *exactly* how those factors will affect the viewership results for Sunday’s show — but we do know that right now ABC could sure use whatever eyeball boost it gets. Season-to-date, through 19 completed weeks, ABC is way behind the rest of its Big 4 broadcast competition in primetime’s average total viewers.

Here’s how they rank:

Fox: 8.0 million
CBS: 7.8 million
NBC: 7.3 million
ABC: 5.2 million

Not having NFL rights sucks, huh? This is why no one should be surprised if ESPN’s “Monday Night Football” finds itself (back) on ABC.

The Oscars will lift ABC’s viewer average by a few hundred thousand, but the Disney-owned (just like ESPN) broadcaster will remain in fourth. The chasm is just too vast.

Also Read: Oscars 2020: We Predict the Winners in All 24 Categories (Photos)

However, there is momentum to be gained here.

ABC is also currently last in the key 18-49 demographic — if you go out to two decimal places, at least. Here are those current (unrounded) demo rankings:

Fox: 2.19
NBC: 1.58
CBS: 1.13
ABC: 1.06

With the gap so tight between CBS and ABC, a huge event like the Academy Awards can definitely shake up the standings. It is completely possible that ABC grows by one-tenth of a Nielsen point on Sunday night, which would allow the channel to leapfrog CBS. Or maybe it won’t — check back with TheWrap next week.

Also Read: Oscar's Longest Losing Streaks: 12 People With 10-Plus Nominations and No Wins (Photos)

Before you set that smartphone reminder and go surf the web some more, find the past 20 years of Academy Awards viewers in our line graph below.

Readers can click to enlarge.

020720_20-years-of-Oscars-Viewership_TM-copy-1

Also Read: Ratings: NBC's 'Indebted,' CBS' 'Tommy' and The CW's 'Katy Keene' Make for a Trio of Bad Debuts

Bonus: Below are the Best Picture winners for the high and low marks of the millennia.
2000: “American Beauty” (High, 46.3 million total viewers)
2018: “The Shape of Water” (Low, 26.6 million)

The contenders this time around are “Ford v Ferrari,” “The Irishman,” “Jojo Rabbit,” “Joker,” “Little Women,” “Marriage Story,” “1917,” “Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood” and “Parasite.” The viewers? We’ll find out on Monday.

The 92nd Academy Awards air live Sunday on ABC. They start at 8 p.m. ET/5 p.m. PT.

32 Great Movies That Received Zero Oscar Nominations (Photos)

While we could go all day naming movies that have been unfairly overlooked by The Academy for one reason or another, these near classics feel like they should've been awards season shoo-ins and yet ultimately received no Oscar love at all.
"King Kong" (1933)

It was the quintessential monster movie of the era and was a landmark for special effects, but the Academy handed it zero nominations.
RKO
"Modern Times" (1936)

Many of Charlie Chaplin's silent masterpieces predate the Oscars, but the Academy didn't take the chance to nominate his final turn as The Tramp. Chaplin himself wouldn't be properly recognized by The Academy with an Oscar win until "Limelight" was finally released in 1972.
United Artists
"Bringing Up Baby" (1938)

Katherine Hepburn had already won an Oscar by the time she starred in this screwball comedy classic alongside Cary Grant. What gives?
RKO
"His Girl Friday" (1940)

Seriously, what did the Academy have against Howard Hawks? "His Girl Friday" is another screwball comedy great with Cary Grant and Rosalind Russell, but it was completely snubbed. Even the play and movie on which its based, "The Front Page," got three Oscar nominations.
Columbia Pictures
"The Searchers" (1956)

It's not like the Oscars had never heard of John Ford or John Wayne when this masterpiece came out.
Warner Bros.
"Paths of Glory" (1957)

RIP Kirk Douglas. Stanley Kubrick plus War movie should've spelled Oscar gold, but it got no noms.
United Artists
"Touch of Evil" (1958)

Orson Welles' noir begins with a masterful long take and has some stunning black and white cinematography, but after "Citizen Kane," Welles never got another Oscar nomination until he won an honorary award in 1971.
Universal Pictures
"Breathless" (1960)

Jean-Luc Godard's groundbreaking film that kicked off the French New Wave and helped shape modern cinema did get attention from the Berlin Film Festival and even the BAFTAs, but not AMPAS. Godard has also never been nominated for an Oscar, but he received an honorary Oscar in 2011.
The Criterion Collection
"Harold and Maude" (1972)

The Oscars would come to love Hal Ashby movies, but his second feature, "Harold and Maude," had to settle for just two Golden Globe nominations for stars Ruth Gordon and Bud Cort.
Paramount Pictures
"Mean Streets" (1973)

It took way too long for the Academy to finally recognize Martin Scorsese, but they completely overlooked his first critical masterpiece.
Warner Bros.
"The Shining" (1980)

All work and no Oscar nominations makes Jack a dull boy.
Warner Bros.
"This is Spinal Tap" (1984)

"This is Spinal Tap" defined a genre of mockumentary filmmaking and captured and held a mirror up to heavy metal music in the '80s, but England's loudest rock band was over the heads of the Academy.
MGM
"Once Upon a Time in America" (1984)

Sergio Leone's mob epic was a sensation at Cannes, but its Oscar hopes were doomed when its nearly four-hour running time got butchered for a theatrical release.
Warner Bros.
"Reservoir Dogs" (1992)

Quentin Tarantino didn't get any nominations for his debut "Reservoir Dogs," but he'd burst onto the scene in a major way when his "Pulp Fiction" went head-to-head with "Forrest Gump."
Miramax
"Groundhog Day" (1993)

A beloved romantic comedy and Bill Murray performance didn't get the credit it deserves? Somehow it feels like we've lived this day before.
Columbia Pictures Corporation
"Heat" (1995)

Michael Mann's riveting heist saga boasts Al Pacino, Robert De Niro and Val Kilmer and even a prime spot on the IMDB Top 250, but no Oscar noms.
Warner Bros.
"Rushmore" (1998)

Wes Anderson's breakthrough movie netted a Golden Globe nomination for Bill Murray and two Independent Spirit Awards, and that's it.
Touchstone Pictures
"The Big Lebowski" (1998)

The Oscars may not have abided by Jeff Bridges and The Dude in this Coen Brothers classic, but that's like, your opinion, man.
Gramercy Pictures
"American Psycho" (2000)

Before Christian Bale became a perennial Oscar contender, he starred in Mary Harron's cult favorite that critics were mixed on and the Academy ignored almost entirely; though it did win a special recognition from the National Board of Review.
Lionsgate Films
"Zodiac" (2007)

Was David Fincher's "Zodiac" just too dense for Academy voters? Or pushing three hours, was it just a little too long?
Paramount Pictures
"Melancholia" (2011)

Maybe the themes of Lars von Trier's gem were too similar (or too bleak) compared to another surprise Best Picture nominee from that year, "The Tree of Life."
Zentropa Entertainment
"Frances Ha" (2012)

Noah Baumbach, Greta Gerwig and Adam Driver are all nominated for Oscars this year, but the movie that put them all together and had stellar black and white cinematography was somehow overlooked.
IFC Films
"Fruitvale Station" (2013)

The Academy would eventually come around on Ryan Coogler and Michael B. Jordan, but it missed its chance recognizing their breakthrough work with the true story of police brutality in "Fruitvale Station," even though Sundance, Cannes, the Gothams, Indie Spirits and critics groups all showered it with praise.
The Weinstein Company
"Rush" (2013)

Ron Howard, true story, thrilling racing, huge star power, zero Oscar nominations.
Universal
"Dear White People" (2014)

Justin Simien's debut film "Dear White People" was an explosive conversation piece with an acclaimed screenplay that got snubbed in the height of the #OscarsSoWhite era.
Lionsgate
"Wonder Woman" (2017)

A Best Picture nomination for a superhero movie would've been its own achievement, but a female led and directed one would've been a giant statement. And the Academy failed to nominate it in even the technical categories as well.
Warner Bros.
"The Rider" (2017)

Chloé Zhao's lush and poetic drama "The Rider" felt like a dark horse contender for at the very least a screenplay nomination after it won top honors from the Gotham Awards for Best Film, but it got bucked from the rodeo.
Sony Pictures Classics
"Paddington 2" (2018)

Many critics held up the whimsical "Paddington 2" as one of the best movies of the year, kids movie or otherwise. Others even looked to Hugh Grant as deserving of a Best Supporting Actor nomination for his gonzo villain turn.
Warner Bros.
"Hereditary" (2018)

Horror movies are always a tough sell with the Academy, as are movies that premiered at Sundance, but A24 pushed hard to get Toni Collette a nomination. Ari Aster's follow-up film "Midsommar" was completely shut out as well.
A24
"Mission: Impossible - Fallout" (2018)

Tom Cruise made the best case yet for why the Academy should institute a category for Best Stunts when his jaw dropping, death-defying work was overlooked entirely.
Paramount Pictures
"The Farewell" (2019)

After premiering at Sundance, Awkwafina managed to stay top of mind in the Oscar race through all of 2019, and she would even win a Golden Globe for her performance. But in a year that lacked for diversity among the acting nominees, "The Farewell" missed out on a screenplay nomination as well.
A24
"Uncut Gems" (2019)

Some critics speculated that the Safdie Brothers film might have a sleeper chance at a Best Picture nomination this year and that Adam Sandler should be a Best Actor contender in a crowded field. But because he and the movie were shut out, Sandler made good on a threat to continue making even more Netflix movies that both critics and the Academy will hate.
A24

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Epics like “King Kong” to cult classics like “The Shining” and “The Big Lebowski” were all snubbed by the Academy

While we could go all day naming movies that have been unfairly overlooked by The Academy for one reason or another, these near classics feel like they should've been awards season shoo-ins and yet ultimately received no Oscar love at all.

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