Ryan Kavanaugh’s ‘Suicide Squad’ Math: Exec Projects Up to $350 Million Profit

Is the math genius – whose company went bankrupt – finally showing us his mythic movie algorithm?

Last Updated: August 6, 2016 @ 5:09 PM

Is Ryan Kavanaugh finally letting us in on his alleged formula for making hit movies?

The Relativity Studios chairman and CEO had some fun with math on Friday, predicting that Warner Bros. will make up to $350 million in profit if the film’s domestic cumulative box office is three times its opening weekend.

Kavanaugh shared the projections on his verified Twitter account, saying “I’ll take those reviews for that profit on every movie. Here are my projections 200m of profit [minimum].”

Kavanaugh seems to have used the studio’s previous DC Films project “Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice” as a model for his “Suicide Squad” numbers, at minimum pegging the film to double its opening weekend grosses over its theatrical run. On the highest end of the projection, Kavanaugh thinks it could profit $350 million.

What’s juicy about the numbers is that Kavanaugh thinks the movie’s production budget was $300 million total, with a $150 million up front before P&A. He also predicts robust international revenues, with a staggering $162 million for foreign TV rights, and generous paid TV and home video revenues here in the states (see graphic below).

In Relativity’s early days, Kavanaugh claimed in boardrooms across Hollywood to possess an algorithm for determining which films would be hits.

Relativity Media filed for bankruptcy in 2015, and emerged from the Chapter 11 process this spring. Kavanaugh will finally have a crack at modeling his own film financials after an over two-year lull in releases.

The first title coming under the rebranded Relativity Studios, “Before I Wake” starring Kate Bosworth, opens wide September 9.

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