The question isn't if Sarah Palin is going to run, it's whether her recent media blitz is the start of a new kind of presidential campaign.
No need for early primaries, stump speeches or even nationally televised debates. In their place, reality shows, book tours and regular appearances as a cable news commentator.
Also read: Sarah Palin's Not-That-Unimaginable Road to the White House
If Palin wants to run for president in 2012, traditionally she would need to declare her candidacy after New Year’s. But given the millions of dollars she's making from her gigs with TLC and Fox (and the possibility of a second season of “Sarah Palin’s Alaska”), the former governor is going to want to postpone that decision for as long as possible.
In fact, she doesn't even legally have to get off the air. While the networks couldn't even show Ronald Reagan's or Arnold Schwarzenegger's movies during their campaigns — and while broadcasters legally must give equal time to all candidates on the airwaves — those rules don’t apply to cable networks.
So Palin could still be a TV presence throughout the campaign. Although Fox has indicated that it will terminate her contract if she gets into the race, "Sarah Palin's Alaska" could be in the middle of a third season at the time of the November 2012 election.
Far-fetched? Not by much.
Next week will find Palin on a multi-state tour promoting her upcoming book “America by Heart.” The stops conveniently find her in such red states as Arizona, Texas, and, oh yes, Iowa.
That doesn’t take into account her many appearances cheering daughter Bristol on ABC’s “Dancing With the Stars.”
And even that has come with tangential publicity. Despite her so-so dancing, Bristol's success on "Stars" has raised complaints about a concentrated phone-in campaign by Tea Partiers. That resulted in younger sister Willow using homophobic language in a Facebook fight with a commenter — a battle that couldn't have hurt Palin's image with her conservative supporters.
More? A New York Times Sunday Magazine cover story is due this weekend, and the release this week of clips from an upcoming Barbara Walters interview kept her in the news — as if she needs any help.
She's also harnessed the power of Twitter and Facebook to inject herself into national debates over issues such as the possible construction of a Muslim community center near Ground Zero.
And while encouraging “will she or won’t she” chatter, Palin has banked political chips. That could push back throwing her hat in the ring farther, because she forged so many alliances during a series of important endorsements in the recent mid-term elections.
“She’s not just doing an entertainment show, she is also actively campaigning for other people. She has been closely aligned with the Tea Party, so she has a strong network,” Ann Crigler, professor of political science at USC, told TheWrap.
Some opine, however, that all this exposure doesn’t exactly make Palin seem presidential.
“She’s everywhere. With a kid on ‘Dancing’ and Facebook and Twitter the Palins are tipping over — they may become an exclamation point. They run the risk of becoming a joke rather than a cultural touchstone,” Jessica Wakeman, a blogger with TheFrisky.com, told TheWrap.
“She may have been a work horse in Alaska, but now she is a show horse,” John Feehery, a Republican political consultant and the president of Quinn Gillespie Communications, added.
Not that ratings dominance always translates into success at the polls.
“As Rudy Giuliani learned in the last election, national celebrity is not enough to win a presidential nomination,” Sal Russo, a Republican political consultant, told TheWrap. “She would have to start the process relatively soon. She could skip Iowa or New Hampshire, but I think at this point she would have an excellent chance of winning in Iowa. So I would think it would be a mistake.”
As for that timetable, political pundits expect that most of the contenders for the GOP Presidential nomination will announce their candidacy early this go around — probably in time for the first Republican debate, scheduled for this spring at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library.
Of course, Palin could sit out that debate and many others. Instead, the "Mama Grizzly" can charm voters with TLC's chronicles of her Wasilla adventures while Romeny and Huckabee are stuck pressing the flesh in Des Moines.
May the biggest celebrity win.