'Sing' Stealthily Poised to Top 'Passengers,' 'Assassin's Creed' at Christmas Box Office

Conventional wisdom says video game-turned-movie “Assassin’s Creed” will be in battle with space romance “Passengers,” starring Jennifer Lawrence and Chris Pratt come Christmastime. But it’s the family-friendly animated feature “Sing” that is emerging as the top box office contender of the films opening on the holiday weekend of Dec. 21.

All three films are in battle for No. 2 as “Rogue One: A Star Wars Story” should easily beat all newcomers in its massive second-weekend wake. (The Lucasfilm prequel is still on track to open in the ballpark of $150 million on Dec. 16.)

Different prognosticators are saying different things. One has Illumination Entertainment and Universal’s “Sing,” featuring Matthew McConaughey and Reese Witherspoon, opening at $37 million during the three-day weekend and $55 million when you expand that out to the long five-day Christmas holiday weekend.

Also Read: 'Rogue One: A Star Wars Story' Eyes Big $150 Million Debut in Early Forecasts

That same tracker has the Michael Fassbender-starring action fantasy flick “Assassin’s Creed” debuting at just $20 million during the three days and $33 million over the five days. “Passengers” will come in higher at $26 million over three days that same weekend and $39 million for the five-day holiday, according to the same set of estimates.

But all early estimates rank “Sing” as the top newly opening wide release opening that weekend with it surpassing $80 million on the high end of six-day estimates (factoring in the following Monday, which most people have off). All prognosticators have Columbia Pictures’ space travel film as the second highest grossing of the weekend and New Regency and Ubisoft’s video game movie, being distributed by 20th Century Fox, as the third.

Also Read: Why All But 2 of Hollywood's Threequels Bombed This Year

According to these figures, the overall box office ranking for the weekend will be as follows:
1. “Rogue One: A Star Wars Story”
2. “Sing”
3. “Passengers”
4. “Assassin’s Creed”

It will be highly competitive for all movies landing a week after “Rogue One,” said comScore senior analyst Paul Dergarabedian. “‘Assassin’s Creed,” “Passengers” and “Sing” arrive into an incredibly crowded late year marketplace,” he told TheWrap.

One count against the Fassbender title: video game-based movies have a bad track record. But Dergarabedian said, “‘Assassin’s’ could post even better-than-expected results and give the competition a run for its collective money,” adding that the family-friendly allure of “Sing” could put the other more serious-minded newcomers and holdovers in check. “Lesson: never underestimate the power of light-hearted family fare in a sea of heavier films that are chasing essentially the same group of sci-fi and action film fans,” said the analyst. “‘Sing’ could be a giant killer.”

Also Read: 'Fantastic Beasts' Passes Half Billion Mark at Global Box Office

If you look at what’s buzzing on social media right now, the fate of Christmas weekend’s box office becomes slightly less clear. According to comScore’s PreAct tool, more people are talking about “Assasssin’s Creed” than “Passengers” — but not by much. As for “Sing,” it’s not yet registering in the top ten (see chart below).

“Sing,” about a theater-owning koala named Buster Moon, also features the voices of Seth MacFarlane, Scarlett Johansson, John C. Reilly, Taron Egerton, Nick Kroll and Nick Offerman.

Based on the best-selling video game franchise, “Assassin’s Creed” stars Fassbender as Callum Lynch. After a mysterious organization fakes his death, Lynch is forced to unlock his genetic memories, allowing him to experience the adventures of his ancestor, Aguilar, in 15th Century Spain.

Directed by Justin Kurzel, the film also stars Marion Cotillard, Jeremy Irons, Brendan Gleeson, Charlotte Rampling, Michael K. Willaims, and Khalid Abdalla.

“Passengers” was directed by Morten Tyldum and revolves around two spacecraft passengers who are awoken 90 years too early as they travel to a distant planet.

30 Highest Grossing Animated Movies of All Time Worldwide

A look at top animated moneymakers as of May 2020, from "The Lion King" to "Zootopia." The numbers are not adjusted for inflation.
30. "The Incredibles" (2004)

Worldwide Gross: $633,019,734

In 2004, Brad Bird's first Pixar outing wowed audiences with complicated animated action scenes, cross-generational comedy and superhero mayhem.
Pixar Animation Studios
29. "Sing" (2016)

Worldwide Gross: $634,151,679

Illumination's animal-karaoke musical crooned its way onto the list.
28. "Moana" (2016)

Worldwide Gross: $643,331,111

Disney's Hawaii-set movie scored two Oscar nominations, for Best Animated Feature and Lin-Manuel Miranda's song "How Far I'll Go."

Disney
27. "Big Hero 6" (2014)

Worldwide Gross: $657,818,612

Disney's 2014 robot tale combined anime aesthetics, superhero action and Pixar's heart.
Disney Animation Studios
26. "Ice Age: The Meltdown" (2006)

Worldwide Gross: $660,940,780

Fox's 2006 prehistoric romp proved the success of the first was no fluke.
Twentieth Century Fox
25. "Kung Fu Panda 2" (2011)

Worldwide Gross: $665,692,281

With the franchise's skills proven, DreamWorks Animation gave the world another hit of comedy with this animated martial arts sequel in 2011.
Dreamworks Animation Studios
24. "Up" (2009)

Worldwide Gross: $735,099,082

The 2009 fan favorite demonstrated that original ideas with big emotions could make big money.
Pixar Animation Studios
23. "Monsters University" (2013)

Worldwide Gross: $744,229,437

Ten years after the release of "Monsters Inc," Pixar sent fans back to school in a 2013 prequel.
Pixar Animation Studios
22. "Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted" (2012)

Worldwide Gross: $746,921,274

DreamWorks Animation's "Madagascar" series kept the studio afloat with a string of breezy successes, including 2012's third installment.
Dreamworks Animation Studios
21. "Shrek Forever After" (2010)

Worldwide Gross: $752,600,867

The big green ogre's final chapter dropped in 2010.
Dreamworks Animation Studio
20. "Shrek the Third" (2007)

Worldwide Gross: $798,958,162

Made in 2007, this sequel proved there was still some gas left in this fantasy mash-up comedy franchise.
Dreamworks Animation Studio
19. "Coco" (2017)

Worldwide Gross: $807,082,196

Directed by Lee Unkrich, this animated film captured everyone's hearts and even won the Academy Award for Best Animated Feature in 2018.
Disney/Pixar
18. "Inside Out" (2015)

Worldwide Gross: $857,611,174

Disney Pixar hit the home run again with this animated feature film about the emotions inside your head, starring Amy Poehler, Mindy Kaling and Bill Hader.
Disney/Pixar
17. "The Secret Life of Pets" (2016)

Worldwide Gross:$875,457,937

Universal/Illumination's story of dogs seeking out adventure while their owners are away charmed its way onto the list.
16. "Ice Age: Continental Drift" (2012)

Worldwide Gross: $877,244,782

Profits abound for this 2012 fourth installment in the chilly prehistoric franchise, followed just behind it's predecessor.
Twentieth Century Fox Animation
15."Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs" (2009)

Worldwide Gross: $888,805,671

While other films have made bigger waves in the States, international sales have always returned big money for Fox's "Ice Age" franchise, proven again by the 2009 entry.
Twentieth Century Fox Animation
14. "Shrek 2" (2004)

Worldwide Gross: $919,838,758

DreamWorks Animation proved to be worthy Pixar competition with its successful "Shrek" franchise.
Dreamworks Animation Studio
13. "Finding Nemo" (2003)

Worldwide Gross: $940,335,536

"Finding Nemo" was something of a second-wind for Pixar, solidifying the company's place as the titans of modern animation.
Pixar Studios
12. "The Lion King" (1994)

Worldwide Gross: $968,483,777

Can you feel the love tonight for this Disney animated classic?
Disney Animation Studios
11. "Despicable Me 2" (2013)

Worldwide Gross: $970,761,885

Illumination's sequel managed to make more money than its predecessor and put the upcoming "Minions" spin-off into motion.
Illumination Studios
10. "Zootopia" (2016)

Worldwide Gross: $1,023,784,195

Disney charmed audiences in 2016 with its cop thriller pairing a rookie rabbit cop and a wily fox informant.
Disney
9. "Finding Dory" (2016)

Worldwide Gross: $1,028,570,889

The sequel to "Finding Nemo" swam right back into audience's hearts.
Pixar
8. "Despicable Me 3" (2017)

Worldwide Gross: $1,034,799,409

Illumination's follow-up -- featuring Gru's blond-haired brother -- became the franchise's biggest grosser.
7. "Toy Story 3" (2010)

Worldwide Gross: $1,066,969,703

Built on Pixar's critical and commercial goodwill, the third installment in the mega-franchise brought in big profits.
Pixar Studios
6. "Toy Story 4" (2019)

Worldwide Gross: $1,073,394,593

Nearly two decades after the last film, Woody and Buzz and the gang returned for the top-grossing film in the series (not adjusted for inflation, that is).

Disney
5. "Minions" (2015)

Worldwide Gross: $1,159,398,397

The little yellow helpers crossed the $1 billion mark at the end of August, raking in more money then "Despicable Me" and "Despicable Me 2" for Universal Pictures.
Universal Pictures/Illumination Entertainment
4. "Incredibles 2" (2018)

Worldwide Gross: $1,242,805,359

The superpowered family sprung back into action a full 14 years after the original -- but far surpassed the original film's box office haul.

Disney/Pixar
3. "Frozen" (2013)

Worldwide Gross: $1,276,480,335

Disney's 2013 smash-hit takes the box office top spot. And then there was merchandising, video on demand and home video that audiences just couldn't let go...
Disney Animation Studios
2. "Frozen II" (2019)

Worldwide Gross: $1,450,026,933

Though it failed to garner an Oscar nom for Best Animated Feature, this sequel still managed to outgross its predecessor.
1. The Lion King (2019)

Worldwide Gross: $1,631,724,000

Whether the film is animated or live-action has been up for debate, the new "Lion King" was computer animated, so we're putting it on the list.
Disney