Two years after providing theaters relief amidst a sluggish autumn, Taylor Swift is back with a theatrical release party for her new album, “The Life of a Showgirl.” But anyone expecting the box office windfall of “The Eras Tour” should temper their expectations.
While expected to top the box office charts this weekend, tracking for “Release Party of a Showgirl” is hovering around $35 million. That’s little more than a third of the $93 million opening that “The Eras Tour” earned in 2023 en route to becoming by far the highest grossing concert film of all time with $261.6 million worldwide.
The reason is simple: a release party is not a concert film. “Release Party of a Showgirl” is highlighted by the premiere of her new music video for the single “The Fate of Ophelia,” along with lyric videos for the rest of the tracks on the album and behind-the-scenes clips on the making of the video and interviews with Swift.
By contrast, “The Eras Tour” offered a cinematic experience of a concert tour so wildly expensive and high in demand that it triggered fan lawsuits and a federal investigation into Ticketmaster’s de facto monopoly over the live entertainment market. Millions of Swifties priced out of seeing the pop star in person flocked to theaters to get a taste of the collective experience that only a concert can provide.
And while theaters still provide that appeal of gathering with fellow fans that fueled this month’s hits “The Conjuring: Last Rites” and “Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle,” lyric and music videos obviously aren’t the same as a full-scale arena show.
Still, any revenue that Swift can bring to the box office will be welcome given that two major tentpoles that had been expected for release in October have decamped for May 2026. This weekend was the original release date for Lionsgate’s “Michael,” Antoine Fuqua’s biopic of Michael Jackson that is now in the early May weekend slot once held by “Avengers: Doomsday.”
Warner has also moved the video game film “Mortal Kombat II” from October to next May, lowering the ceiling on the box office potential for this month. In that context, a non-Hollywood alternative from Swift announced less than a month ago with a weekend total equivalent to the opening of “The Wild Robot” would be a welcome gap-filler.
Also opening this weekend is A24’s “The Smashing Machine,” a Benny Safdie sports biopic starring Dwayne Johnson as MMA fighter Mark Kerr. Johnson’s performance has been praised as a career best and potential Oscar contending one, and the film is expected to contend for the No. 2 slot alongside the second weekend of Warner Bros.’ “One Battle After Another,” which is projected to earn $10-11 million in the coming frame.