TheGrill 2017: Rich Greenfield Explains Why Disney Is In Trouble
Media and technology analyst tells TheWrap’s Sharon Waxman that he is skeptical about Disney’s bundle package, but bullish on Apple’s future
Jeremy Fuster | October 2, 2017 @ 7:44 PM
Last Updated: October 5, 2017 @ 2:57 PM
Disney might be the most successful company in Hollywood right now, but BTIG analyst Rich Greenfield thinks that the company’s cable TV division, which still uses bundle packages, will soon be in big trouble.
Greenfield discussed his thoughts about Disney and the future of media with TheWrap’s CEO and editor in chief Sharon Waxman at TheGrill at The Montage in Beverly Hills on Monday. Greenfield talked about how media is constantly changing at a breakneck pace, as he witnessed firsthand when he saw his daughter watching “oddly satisfying” videos on YouTube.
“There’s just a lot to do, and that competition for your time is leading to pressure on Disney’s most profitable business, their cable network division,” he said.
Granted, with the continued interest in live sports, Disney-owned ESPN will still be a profitable network, but Greenfield doesn’t think that it will be a growth business as it is tied to other networks like ABC, and tune-in TV will have less of a hold on consumers as more and more entertainment options become available.
“The problem is, the minute you’re bored — and it doesn’t matter if you’re watching ‘Empire’ or ‘Monday Night Football’ — there’s an infinite number of things you can do now. Hollywood has made an incredible amount of great content, it was just hard to access. Now there’s just an incredible array of great content, but it takes away from live TV and its advertising. And if you’re not watching stuff from these big bundles, why are you going to pay 80-90 bucks for it?”
Disney might be recognizing this, which is why it is rolling out its own streaming service. Greenfield thinks this is the right move, but thinks that in order for it to be successful, there’s something Disney needs to keep in mind.
“If Disney just puts on stuff from its movie collection or from ABC and Disney Channel, it’s not going to maximize its potential,” Greenfield said. “It needs to have something exclusive.”
And when it comes to exclusive content, Greenfield believes that Apple will soon have an advantage in that department. He thinks that Apple’s decision to produce “Carpool Karaoke” isn’t exactly a “House of Cards” or “Game of Thrones,” but given time and Apple’s immense financial resources, he believes Apple will soon have a potent original content stable to rope in subscribers.
“Of everything that’s happened this year, I think the single biggest thing that’s change is Apple throwing its hat into the ring. Netflix has come far by spending money on content and hiring the right people. If you’re Apple, money’s not the problem. So go out, find the right talent, and build.”
The Scene at TheGrill 2017: TheWrap's Media Leadership Conference
Co-Chairmen and CEO's of Fox Television Group Gary Newman and Dana Walden, and John Singleton.
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TheWrap's annual TheGrill media conference took place at the Montage Beverly Hills on Oct. 2 and Oct. 3.
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TheWrap's CEO and editor-in-chief Sharon Waxman greets attendees at the 8th annual TheGrill conference.
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Audience members listen to panels on the first day of TheGrill.
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Sky Moore, partner at Greenberg Glusker, Cindy Lin, CEO of Infotainment China, and President of DMG Entertainment, Chris Fenton at TheWrap's annual TheGrill conference.
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David Grinberg, partner at Sidley Austin LLP, speaks onstage at TheWrap's 8th Annual TheGrill.
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Stanley Rosen, professor of political science at USC, speaks with Sharon Waxman on stage.
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Catherine Zhang of Youku Tudou and Colin Brady of CAA discuss streaming in China with TheWrap's Matt Pressberg.
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Vicki Beck and Jan Pinkava speak with Sharon Waxman on stage.
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The Montage in Beverly Hills.
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Attendees gather around the lunch buffet at TheGrill on Monday.
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Stanley Rosen, Matt Pressberg and Cindy Lin at TheGrill.
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Ted Schilowitz of Paramount Pictures speaks at TheGrill.
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Attendees gather at The Montage for TheWrap's annual TheGrill conference.
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Sharon Waxman with Albie Hecht.
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Sharon Waxman with speakers at TheGrill.
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Kathleen Grace and Robert Goldberg speak on a panel during TheGrill.
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Audience members of TheGrill conference converse during a break.
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Virtual Reality panel at TheGrill.
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Managing director and media and technology analyst at BTIG Rich Greenfield discusses the future of media with Sharon Waxman.
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Gary Newman and Dana Walden speak with Sharon Waxman on stage.
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Michael Bloom, Robert Goldberg, Kathleen Grace, Alec Shankman and Chris M. Williams speak about multimedia platforms at TheGrill.
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ILMxLAB's Vicki Beck and Google Spotlight Stories' Jan Pinkava talk about VR at TheGrill.
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Director John Singleton before his panel at the end of TheGrill's first day.
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Audience members talk during a break at TheGrill.
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Director of International Content Cooperation of Youku Tudou Inc., Catherine Zhang, attends TheGrill.
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Founding Partner of MacInnes Scott, John MacInnes, attends TheWrap's media conference on Monday.
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UCLA's Elizabeth Joye Buda and Kate Pierce attend TheWrap's TheGrill.
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The audience watches a panel at TheWrap's media and technology conference, TheGrill.
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TheWrap's film reporter Matt Pressberg on a panel with Co-Founder and EVP of WEVR, Anthony Batt, Founding Partner of MacInnes Scott, John MacInnes and Paramount Pictures' Ted Schilowitz.
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TheWrap's Tim Molloy speaks with "Boyz N The Hood" director John Singleton
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Cocktail party on the terrace of The Montage in Beverly Hills
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Sharon Waxman and TheWrap team
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Invar CEO Elizabeth Koshi, John Singleton, and ICM's Crystal Mais at TheGrill
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Raymond Reed and Sabrina Taylor
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Attendees at TheGrill cocktail party.
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Weather Channel's Dave Shull discusses climate change with Sharon Waxman.
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Producers Nina Jacobson and Darren Throop with Sharon Waxman
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Adi Sideman at TheGrill
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Tobias Quesser at TheGrill
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Franklin Leonard discusses diversity at TheGrill
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M and A panel at TheGrill
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Paramount distribution head Megan Colligan and Lionsgate Marketing SVP Thai Randolph
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TheGrill's Innovators Panel
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TheGrill's Innovators Panel
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DreamWorks founder Jeffrey Katzenberg and Sharon Waxman
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mitu President Beatriz Acevado
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Entertainment, media and technology converge at TheWrap’s 8th Annual Grill Conference at the Montage Beverly Hills
Co-Chairmen and CEO's of Fox Television Group Gary Newman and Dana Walden, and John Singleton.