Why it's him: Abraham died in the comics in the manner that ultimately led to Denise's death on the TV show a few weeks ago. With his arc complete in the comics, it would make sense to kill him off now.
Why it's not him: His refusal to cower seems to have maybe won him Negan's respect.
Why it's not her: Sasha turned her hopelessness around last season, and it would be too depressing for her to die now.
Why it's her: She's in the sweet spot for "Walking Dead" deaths: popular and long-running, but not so popular and long-running that the show can't go on without her.
Why it's not her: Because it would feel like the show once again built up a character just to kill her off when it was dramatically convenient.
CARL (CHANDLER RIGGS)
Why it's him: Some fans don't like him lately, and they didn't even soften when he lost his eye.
Why it's not him: Hasn't he been through enough? Also, Negan charmingly commands, "If anybody says anything, cut the boy's other eye out and feed it to his father," right before he bludgeons his victim to death. Chances are he wouldn't say that if he was about to kill Carl.