Why Nate Silver Supports Election Recount Even Though It’s ‘Unlikely’ to Change Anything
”There are no obvious statistical anomalies in the results in swing states based on the type of voting technology that each county employed,“ statistics guru says
The election recount, which was initiated by Green Party presidential nominee Jill Stein and set into motion on Friday in Wisconsin, is unlikely to overturn the election results, according to statistics guru Nate Silver.
In a post published on his site FiveThirtyEight on Monday, Silver said he was “skeptical of claims of irregularities in the presidential election,” pointing to the fact that “there are no obvious statistical anomalies in the results in swing states based on the type of voting technology that each county employed.”
“What we’re talking about is more like an audit or an investigation,” Silver wrote. “An investigation that would look for signs of deliberate and widespread fraud, such as voting machines having been hacked, whole batches of ballots intentionally having been disregarded, illegal coordination between elections officials and the campaigns, and so on.”
Silver goes on to say that “many individuals and organizations, including the campaigns’ own election monitors, lawyers and statisticians have all looked into it and found nothing.
The Clinton campaign, which agreed to take part in the recount, itself admitted it did not uncover “any actionable evidence of hacking or outside attempts to alter the voting technology.”
Furthermore, Silver argues, “It’s awfully hard to rig an election because of the degree of coordination required across dozens of localities in dozens of states.”
Lastly, Silver says, while polls underestimated Trump’s support among white voters, they were “fairly accurate otherwise,” especially when looking at Trump’s over-performance, which, according to Silver “occurred not only in swing states but also in states that he won easily, such as North Dakota.”
But while Silver admits he doesn’t believe the recount (or audit) will result in any significant changes, he’s not against it.
“I’m in the information business,” Silver said. “An audit very probably won’t detect a conspiracy, but it will reveal information about our voting systems. FiveThirtyEight and most other American news organizations are founded on the premise that more information is better, even if it risks being misinterpreted.”
According to Silver the public will have to get used to a new reality where “nuggets of insight come buried in mounds of misinformation.”
“An audit is as good a place as any to start,” Silver concludes.
Silver, a former New York Times prognosticator, became a household name after he called all 50 states correctly during the 2012 presidential election. He was able to leverage his fame as the nation’s predictor-in-chief into a new role at ESPN, where he founded the site FiveThirtyEight. But his reputation took a hit after his site predicted that Trump had a 1-in-3 chance of defeating Hillary Clinton the Monday before the election.
37 Hollywood Stars for Donald Trump in 2020 (Photos)
With time running out for the President to gain Joe Biden in the polls, here are 34 of Trump's celebrity fans rooting for the President to win a second term.
"I think Trump, no matter what anybody thinks of him, is doing a good job at trying to get these states — and all of the American people — what they need," Dennis Quaid told the Daily Beast in April 2020.
Comedian Roseanne Barr tweeted a picture of herself wearing a "Trump 2020" baseball cap with the caption, "2020 vision."
Former "Buffy the Vampire Slayer" Kristy Swanson in March tweeted, "An honor to meet you Mr. President."
Former NFL great Hershel Walker spoke at the RNC in August and tweeted, "TRUMP PENCE 2020"
"Thank you for being the best President ever," tweeted Diamond and Silk.
Mariano Rivera, the Former Yankee pitcher who was awarded the Medal of Freedom from the President in 2019 said, "He's doing the best for the United States."
"Phenomenal President. Quite possibly the USA," tweeted UFC fighter Conor McGregor back in January. "Most certainly one of them anyway, as he sits atop the shoulders of many amazing giants that came before him."
"We're on the very front end of this right now, and I feel comfortable and confident that because of strong leadership," said Elisabeth Hasselbeck on "The View" in March supporting the President's coronavirus response.
Former "Entertainment Tonight" anchor Mary Hart hosted the President's controversial July 4th celebration at Mt. Rushmore in South Dakota back in July.
"He is literally going to go down in history as one of our greatest Presidents," said "Pawn Stars" Rick Harrison at the Conservative Political Action Conference in February.
NASCAR driver Corey LaJoie sported a "Trump 2020" on his car at NASCAR’s Brickyard 400 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway, back in July.
UFC fighter Colby Covington recently supported the President on his Instagram saying, "Had a tremendous time yesterday with @erictrump & @carlos_e_gavidia at the MAGA Boat Parade in Miami!"
“All I gotta say is Trump 2020, bitch. Fuck I look like paying an extra 33 in taxes for Biden," rapper Lil Pump said on his Instagram story in October 2020.
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Golf legend Jack Nicklaus in a statement on his Twitter "strongly recommend(s) you consider Donald J. Trump for another four years. I certainly have and have already cast my vote for him!"
Lil Wayne shocked fans on Oct. 29 when he tweeted a photo of himself with President Trump. He captioned the pic by saying that "besides what he’s done so far with criminal reform, the platinum plan is going to give the community real ownership."
NFL Legend Brett Favre tweeted, "In this election, we have freedom of choice, which all should respect. For me & these principles, my Vote is for @RealDonaldTrump."
With the election underway, here are the stars who will be voting for President Donald Trump’s second term in 2020
With time running out for the President to gain Joe Biden in the polls, here are 34 of Trump's celebrity fans rooting for the President to win a second term.