EXCLUSIVE
Everybody's confused about the new Best Picture process.
Nobody knows how it will play out, and whether we'll have five nominees, or 10, or some number in between.
But what if I could tell you what happens when the Oscar process is applied to ballots cast by a group of hundreds of voters who've historically been an accurate predictor of what Oscar voters will do?
I can, and here's the answer: There won't be 10 Oscar Best Picture nominees.
There will be eight.
And we got that number by counting the Critics' Choice Movie Awards ballots the same way the Motion Picture Academy tallies its votes.
Also read: 'The Artist,' 'Hugo' Top Critics Choice Movie Awards Nominations
The study began when I approached executives at the Broadcast Film Critics Association, which gives out the Critics' Choice Movie Awards -- and of which I am a member -- with a crazy suggestion:
"After you announce your nominees, let me recount the ballots using the Oscar system," I asked.
The CCMAs, after all, are one of the most accurate bellwethers of the Oscars. Last year, 27 of the Academy's 30 Best Picture and acting nominees had already received CCMA noms; the year before, it was 24 out of 30.
Understandably, the Broadcast Film Critics didn't go for my plan to borrow their ballots, even after I promised not to reveal which films would have been left out. But they were intrigued by the idea, and they got in touch with the accountant who tallies those ballots at CMM, LLP.
The Broadcast Film Critics and CMM agreed to let me tutor the accounting firm's Debby Britton on the Oscar process, and then reveal the results after the counting was completed.
So I sent Britton a step-by-step description of the process that the Academy says will result in somewhere between five and 10 Oscar nominees.
And here's how it played out:
A large majority of the Broadcast Film Critics' more than 250 critics cast ballots, which asked them to rank their favorite movies, one through five. On those ballots, 33 different films received first-place votes.
Also read: My Prediction: Only 7 Films Will Get Best Picture Nominations
Under the Oscar system, the race is immediately narrowed to those 33 films; every other movie is out of the running, no matter how many second- or third-place votes it received.
Once the initial count was made, the number of votes required to guarantee a nomination was determined. This is done by dividing the number of votes by 11, and then adding one (or if the result is not a whole number, adding whatever fraction is needed to make it one).
Example: If 250 members had voted, 23 votes would have guaranteed a nomination, because it would be impossible for more than 10 films to receive that many votes.
