It's not over 'til it's over, right?
So why does it feel as if it's over?
"The King's Speech." Colin Firth. Natalie Portman. Christian Bale. Aaron Sorkin. David Seidler. "Toy Story 3." They all have an air about them: case closed; take it to the bank; game, set and match.
But with a week and a half left until Oscar night, that just doesn't seem right. There ought to be some hints that things aren't as inevitable as they appear to be. There ought to be some tea leaves that, if you read them the right way, indicate possible surprises on the stage of the Kodak Theater on Feb. 27.
What follows is a search for signs of uncertainty in this year's Oscar race. I suspect I'm looking for my own sake as much as for anybody else's – because while I like the idea that I correctly picked the Best Picture winner in the first week of September, before I'd seen it or most of its fellow nominees, I also want to believe that there are still questions to ponder in the final week of the race.
THE DIRECTOR CONUNDRUM
"The King's Speech" enjoyed a remarkable night at the BAFTA Awards on Sunday, winning seven awards and picking up the nearly unprecedented combination of Best Film and Outstanding British Film. But also the way, the film suffered a hiccup in one of the key categories, Best Director, where Tom Hooper lost to "The Social Network" director David Fincher.
Even if you disregard the fact that BAFTA splits picture and director far more often than the Oscars do, the move reinforced what I keep hearing from Academy voters. Many of them – probably even the majority, among ones I've talked to about this – fully expect that Fincher will win the Oscar for directing even while his Facebook flick loses Best Picture to the royal drama.
While "The King's Speech" has swamped "The Social Network" in almost all Hollywood guild contests, including the Directors Guild, Fincher has somehow managed to remain the favorite in the directing race. Which leads to a follow-up question to bring delight to "Social Network" partisans: If voters put his name down for Best Director, are they really going to forsake his film in the big race?
To that last question, I think the answer is yes: Even if Fincher wins the directing prize at the Oscars, "The King's Speech" will win Best Picture. Remember: the picture and director ballots are counted differently now, and it's almost certain that "The King's Speech" is far too big a consensus movie to lose the top prize.
So if Fincher wins here (I'm still on the fence about it), it'll be the closest thing his picture will have to a moment of Oscar glory.
ANNETTE'S SURGE
Last week saw a sudden burst of stories about how Academy members really liked Annette Bening, about how she was due for an Oscar, about how her newfound presence on television and around town in screening Q&As marked a surge that just might take down favorite Natalie Portman.
