It’s never too early in Oscar season.
Most of the real contenders have yet to hit the big screen, but that hasn't kept a spate of trial balloons and unlikely scenarios that are being entertained to swirl around town.
The big ones right now?
That "True Grit," sight unseen, is a strong candidate to win Best Picture.
That “The Social Network” could be competing as an Original Screenplay rather than an adapted one.
That Mel Gibson might be a Best Actor candidate.
That Ben Affleck’s “The Town” is a bona fide Best Picture contender.
Let’s try to figure out just how likely these are to actually happen.
"TRUE GRIT" IS A GENUINE BEST PICTURE THREAT
A small number of key films have yet to screen for Oscar-watchers, foremost among them David O. Russell’s “The Fighter” and the Coen Brothers’ “True Grit.” These days, the attention is all on the latter film, a Jeff Bridges/Matt Damon remake of the 1969 Henry Hathaway film – or, perhaps more accurately, the Coens' version of the Charles Portis novel on which Hathaway’s film was based.
Its teaser trailer, released last week, won immediate raves: Brad Brevet said it was reason enough to stop talking about Best Picture being a race between “The Social Network” and “The King’s Speech.”
And now the full-length trailer, longer and darker and set to the doomy strains of Johnny Cash’s “God’s Gonna Cut You Down,” has prompted more pundits to label the film a possible Oscar juggernaut on the level of the Coen’s Best Picture winner “No Country for Old Men.”
“If the movie lives up to the promise of this preview,” asked Dave Karger, “could we have another ‘No Country for Old Men’ on our hands?”
I would never rule the film out sight unseen, but it’s worth pointing out that the Coens have made three films that were nominated for Best Picture, and 12 that weren’t.
More than that, let's remember that "True Grit" is a remake. Maybe it’s a reimagining, maybe it’s closer to the book, and maybe it’s more stylish and dramatic and substantial. But it also has shots that are extremely close to those in the original (check out Jeff Bridges, reins in his mouth, riding across the field to face down the bad guys). And as far as I can determine, remakes simply don’t win Best Picture. Ever.
I won’t count the Coens out. I’m just saying that the “True Grit” trailers aren’t enough to make me think that the usual rules won’t apply.
"THE SOCIAL NETWORK" IS AN ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
OK, I get the thinking behind this one: Ben Mezrich’s book “The Accidental Billionaires” has been attacked as being a one-sided distortion of the founding of Facebook. Mezrich’s admitted use of fictional techniques has left the author open to charges that his true story might not be all that true.
