Between the Scripter Awards on Friday night and the Writers Guild Awards on Saturday, it'll probably be a good weekend for "The Social Network."
It could be the start of a remarkable comeback for the David Fincher film as it heads toward Oscar night … or it could be the film's last good weekend.
For "The Social Network," it's been a season of extremes, and a season that now hangs in the balance. An unprecedented sweep of the critics' awards made the film look like a prohibitive favorite to win the Best Picture Oscar – until the Hollywood guilds began handing out awards, when "The King's Speech" won top honors from the Producers, Directors and Screen Actors Guild, which made it a commanding favorite.
If "The Social Network" is to turn the tide, it needs to start now. The Scripter Awards, which take place on Friday night at USC, are given to the best screen adaptation of a literary work. The nominees include "Winter's Bone," "The Ghost Writer," "True Grit" and "127 Hours" – none of which are expected to put up much of a fight against Aaron Sorkin's screenplay for "Social Network."
(The writer of the original work also wins, which means that "The Accidental Billionaires" author Ben Mezrich will share in Sorkin's victory if the film triumphs, even though Sorkin says he and Mezrich wrote their individual works simultaneously and separately.)
The Writers Guild of America Awards takes place the following night at Hollywood & Highland, and once again Sorkin is a strong favorite to win in the Adapted Screenplay category. WGA restrictions mean that "Winter's Bone" is not eligible; "Social Network" is up against "127 Hours," "I Love You Phillip Morris," "The Town" and "True Grit."
As an added bonus, "The King's Speech" is guaranteed not to win – but since that film isn't eligible, the WGA Original Screenplay Award for "The Kids Are All Right" or (less likely) "Inception" won't really damage the frontrunner.
The question that'll face "The Social Network" on Sunday morning is whether it can capitalize on the small shot of momentum that comes from a pair of expected victories – and if so, how.
Columnists have been offering scenarios in recent days, ranging from S.T. Van Airsdale's suggestion that David Fincher show that he actually wants the award to John Lopez's theory that the preferential system of ballot-counting – in which a film can win if it picks up enough number two and three votes from movies that are eliminated from contention – will help a critical favorite like "TSN."
In fact, I'd guess that the preferential count will help "TKS" or even "The Fighter" or "Toy Story 3" more than "TSN." The question to ask: among voters whose first choices are "Winter's Bone," "127 Hours," "The Kids Are All Right," "Inception" and "True Grit," which film is likely to be ranked second? If the majority of those voters go for "Social Network," it can pull off an upset; if they split their votes or rally behind something else, the Facebook flick is in trouble.
