Nate Silver Gives Republicans a 60 Percent Chance of Reclaiming the Senate

Nate Silver Gives Republicans a 60 Percent Chance of Reclaiming the Senate

The FiveThirtyEight stats guru says GOP's odds in the mid-term elections are favorable — but leaves himself some wiggle room

Nate Silver, the stat guru who gained fame by correctly predicting every state in the 2012 election, chimed in on the 2014 mid-term elections Sunday. It's not good news for the Democrats — Silver gives Republicans a 60 percent chance of retaking the Senate.

Silver, who recently launched the web site FiveThirtyEight via ESPN, made his comments to ABC's Jon Karl on “This Week With George Stephanopoulos” on Sunday morning.

Also read: Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight Launch Gets Lackluster Reviews in Its First Week

He said his best projection saw the GOP taking six seats, the number they'd need to claim a one-vote majority. And he gave Republicans a 30 percent chance of taking even more spots.

But he left himself plenty of room for error, saying the number had a plus-five or minus-five margin of error. That means the Republicans could gain 11 seats — or just one, in which case the balance of power would remain unchanged.

Here's the video:

ABC US News | ABC Business News

  • louisrr

    I hope this is merely an “early” prediction. I guess the media will “run” with this all day …everyday, until election time.
    This would be MAJOR scary if the GOP controlled BOTH houses. Might as well prepare for the impending gutting of the country, IF such a “prediction” were to become reality.
    Can people REALLY be that dumb to elect more of the right-wing grifters?
    We shall see.

    • SoCalGuy

      “Can people REALLY be that dumb to elect more of the right-wing grifters?”

      I'd like to think not, but every day I'm proven wrong on that one…

      • joulesbeef

        No they are actually predicting that most people are too dumb to actually go vote. Young people tend to not vote in non presidential elections, and old people do.

      • jack flash

        Exactly! Everyday poor people call themselves republicans. Thats how much attention people are paying. How scary, a democracy where too many people are too stupid to be informed.

      • traffikator

        The problem is not that people do not recognize that Republicans are evil and no go for the country. The problems is that they have made it extremely difficult and some cases impossible for voters to be able exercise their constitutional right to vote. Plus the gerrymandered districts which means that even when more people vote for the democrat, the Republican still wins. What the President needs to do is to go on the campaign as if he was campaigning for Hillary to win 2016. Turn out the votes. The Dems say they will embark on that project. They also need another strategy. Call the Republicans liars. Really, use the word lying and show all the proof and examples. Put them on the defense. Then make specific statements and dare them not to agree. Let them express themselves so people will hear more of who they are. For example, they keep talking about the Ukraine issue, say out aloud. If you were the President of the United States of America, please tell the American that you would send in troops and start a war with Russia or that you send in the B52s to drop its load. Dare them to disagree or force them to agree with him. He needs different tactics. He must force them to disagree Publicly with provable facts and statistics while on the offensive.

    • SallyinChicago

      Silver is always on the money.

      • traffikator

        Hopefully the President can use this as a call to ask the American people to prove Nate wrong, because if they don't it will further doom for the struggling democracy and economy. And more of your freedoms and liberties will be taken away by Republicans. And you can forget about any infrastructure building generating more jobs and be ready for more money spending on useless wars.

  • Steve White

    Obviously you don't count all the stupid, left wing idiots in this country for obama and his socialists comrades in the senate. How's that National Health Care program working for you? How about the fact that we are now viewed as eunuchs on the world's geopolitical stage? Loving the NSA too? And how about those corrupt folk in the IRS and Justice Department? Or would you prefer to take the 5th as well? Wake up. This country has gone from bad to worse under Obama…..and you're kidding yourself if you believe otherwise.

    • Indy

      The Democrat party has become horrible. The country indeed has gone from bad to worse. If you are in LA which has become an out of control corrupt Democrat pustule, it will push you faster in the arms of the Republicans than anything.

      • traffikator

        If you can be pushed into the arms of Republicans then you deserve what they dole out to you and you are the same pustule matter that you complain about. Yes some places are corrupt and need to be cleaned up, but Republicans are gangrene and are to be destroyed for the good of the country.

    • jack flash

      Lets elect another Bush, maybe declare war on another country with no wmd's. Get 5000 kids killed. Run the stock market down to 6000,lose a million jobs a month. Oh, the good old days. Every comedian made a living off the stupidity of that idiot. The best you got on Obama is Healthcare. Wow! No memory.

      • traffikator

        Healthcare is getting better. And it will be awesome long before 2016. They got nothing. All the people they parade on Fox and in their ads have been proven to be liars who are getting better coverage for much cheaper. No system is without faults and some will be hurt a little but the majority will be better off and eventually those hurting will be better off also. If we can sacrifice trillions of dollars in useless wars and hundreds of thousands of lives all in the name of protecting freedom and spreading democracy, we can afford a few dollars more to help millions pay for healthcare. It will benefit us all in the short and long term.

    • SallyinChicago

      A lot of those policies & laws started BEFORE Mr. Obama took office and he simply is fulfilling them….like the ACA which has been hanging around for about 2 decades!
      Would you prefer somebody else in office now? Who? Romney?

    • Jonas Grumby


      The best part? Your America is DEAD. Demographics baby. All your nightmares will come true. And that … is DAMN funny.