It's been a great year for broadcasters, with one big exception: TV's biggest tentpole hits from the past decade are sagging badly this season.
And so far, no new blockbusters have emerged to replace them.
The proof, as always, is in the Nielsen numbers (see chart below). Signature series that transformed their respective networks and helped define the first part of the new century -- "CSI," "Grey's Anatomy," "Desperate Housewives" -- are experiencing double-digit declines.
They're still big hits, but they no longer pack a knockout punch in the ratings.
Nobody expects scripted TV shows to live forever, of course.
"It's just viewer fatigue," one network wag told TheWrap. "What happens is that shows are white hot, then they're red hot, then they become steel. They're not white-hot anymore -- but they're still steel."
That's why network suits aren't panicking at the audience shrinkage for these once-mighty warriors. "These are still among the most popular series on television," CBS strategist-in-chief Kelly Kahl correctly noted.
Still, the steep fall-off by veterans -- which in some cases has picked up since the start of the calendar year -- is likely to be top of mind in the coming weeks as programmers put together new schedules for their fall campaigns.
Already, there's industry speculation that CBS -- which has a deep bench filled with younger shows filled with growth potential -- might decide to move "CSI" out of its 9 p.m. Thursday anchor position.
Scenarios floated by rivals include possibly having it swap places with current 10 p.m. Thursday drama "The Mentalist" or perhaps moving it to a new night in order to make room for a hot newcomer.
Kahl, of course, wouldn't discuss Eye strategy. He did, however, acknowledge that "CSI" faces fierce foes in its longtime home.
"Thursday at 9 is probably the most competitive time period on TV," he said. "Nobody is throwing up an airball."
The rivalry has taken its toll.
While "CSI" is still a Top 10 show in total viewers, and a huge moneymaking machine for parent CBS Corp., the forensic artists from Sin City are down a stunning 33 percent this season among adults 18-49.
"CSI" has even finished in third place in its timeslot a few times this season, something that as recently as two years ago was unheard of.
Its timeslot competitor over at ABC, "Grey's Anatomy," has also declined markedly. It's down 12 percent this season, with episodes since the start of the year showing even further losses.
ABC's other blockbuster from the last decade, "Desperate Housewives," isn't immune to the aging process, either. Thanks in part to a greatly diminished lead-in from the fast-fading "Extreme Makeover: Home Edition," the gals of Wisteria Lane are off 20 percent versus last season.
ABC scheduling chief Jeff Bader says that one of "biggest challenges of scheduling" is managing the life cycles of blockbusters.
