Choosing a movie’s release date remains more art than science today, even with the oceans of analytical data, tracking information drawn from test audiences and historical referencing.
Distribution executives at Hollywood studios are the ones who pick the dates on which movies premiere and where. In simplest terms, their aim is to find a slot on the calendar that gives their movies the best chance to succeed at the box office.
For example, if you’re opening a horror film, you don’t want to go against another horror movie, or roll out even a week after, but you don’t mind opposing a romantic comedy at all.
They’re getting pretty good at it, too, and rarely do you see matchups between two films that target the same demographic group, like a couple of years ago when “Fast and Furious 6” took on “The Hangover III” in May. (The hot cars won, by knockout.)
That’s good for the movies, the studios and audiences. It’s not so hot for the purposes of this piece, which highlights some of the juicier smackdowns, but there are a few fun face-offs this summer:
“PITCH PERFECT 2” vs. “MAD MAX: FURY ROAD”
Weekend: May 15
Max Rockatansky (Tom Hardy) and Imperator Furiosa (Charlize Theron) rate an edge over the Barden Bellas’ Rebel Wilson and Anna Kendricks, given their $150 million budget and director George Miller‘s return to his 1980s apocalyptic franchise for Warner Bros. But the a cappella angels are no slouches when it comes to high notes or laughs, and Universal has cultivated a major fan base. Still, we’ll give the nod to the dystopian devils based on the killer trailer. Winner: “Mad Max,” in a close one.
“ALOHA” vs. “SAN ANDREAS”
Weekend: May 22
Both of these movies have the potential to really connect — or whiff. If Bradley Cooper and Emma Stone pass their chemistry test, Sony’s romantic comedy written, directed and produced by Cameron Crowe, could be an island of relief for moviegoers from the action and superheroes. And you have to like the supporting cast, with Bill Murray, John Krasinski and Rachel McAdams. But the Warner Bros. earthquake thriller has Dwayne Johnson and Kylie Minogue, and there hasn’t been a disaster movie since last August’s “Into the Storm.” The reteaming of The Rock, director Brad Peyton and producer Beau Flynn should prevail, but it may not top their $350 million “Mysterious Island” haul. Winner: “San Andreas,” but it’s shaky.
“SPY” vs. “ENTOURAGE” vs. “INSIDIOUS 3”
Weekend: June 5
Of course we realize there’s an extra noggin in this head-to-head-head battle, but we wonder why Warner Bros. didn’t when it slotted Ari Gold and the gang here. They’re set up to be shaken and stirred by Melissa McCarthy in Fox’s Bond spoof, and spooked by the creepy Jason Blum threequel directed by Leigh Whannell. Alas, there may have been no great date for this one, given it comes four years after the end of the HBO series. The raft of cameos (Warren Buffet, Tom Brady) is cool, but with interest waning in Hollywood, imagine what it’s like in Nebraska?
Winner: “Spy,” edging “Insidious 3” and waxing “Entourage.”
“MAGIC MIKE XXL” vs. “TERMINATOR: GENISYS”
Weekend: July 1
We’re guessing Channing Tatum’s abs offset the absence of Matthew McConaughey and Alex Pettyfer, but have doubts about Myrtle Beach as a hot spot. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s best days at the box office may be behind him and the same is likely true for the iconic killer cyborg series. The new cast of Jason and Emilia Clarke, Jai Courtney and J.K. Simmons is a good one, and director Alan Taylor is no slouch. “Genisys” may not cover its mega-budget but it should open large, thanks in part to the curiosity factor. Winner: “Terminator: Genisys” in close one.
“ANT-MAN” vs. “TRAINWRECK”
Weekend: July 17
Early word on the Judd Apatow-directed comedy starring Amy Schumer is positive, and supporting players Bill Hader, Tilda Swinton, Mike Birbiglia and Marissa Tomei should be fun. But there’s some irony in the R-rated commitment comedy going up against a superhero saga starring former Apatow acolyte Paul Rudd. With the monster “Minions” opening a week before, this could be the first Marvel movie since it partnered with Disney not to open at No. 1.
Winner: “Ant-Man,” because who bets against Marvel?
“MASTERMINDS” vs. “FANTASTIC FOUR”
Weekend: Aug. 7
With Zach Galafianakis, Kristen Wiig, Owen Wilson and Jason Sudeikis, Relativity’s comedy based on the 1997 Loomis Fargo heist has a fairly fantastic four of its own, and Jared Hess (“Napoleon Dynamite”) as director. But Fox’s reboot has a nice lineup too, with Miles Teller, Michael B. Johnson, Jamie Bell and Kate Mara. The director is Josh Trank, who’s on board for the standalone “Star Wars” film, and the writer is “X-Men” alum Simon Kinberg. The Meryl Streep rock dramedy “Ricki and the Flash” could crimp the comedy, while the super group’s main concern may be midsummer Marvel malaise.
Winner: “Fantastic Four,” by plenty.
“STRAIGHT OUTTA COMPTON” vs. “THE MAN FROM U.N.C.L.E.” vs. “UNDERDOGS”
Weekend: Aug. 14
Given the anticipation surrounding the story of N.W.A. from Ice Cube and starring his son, O’Shea Jackson, Universal’s biopic about the iconic rap group is the clear favorite. But the Weinstein Company thinks its remake of the Argentinian foosball hit voiced by Ariana Grande, Katie Holmes, Bella Thorne and Eugenio Derbez (“Instructions Not Included”) will be its biggest animated film ever. Director Guy Ritchie and stars Henry Cavill and Armie Hammer make a potent trio, but why they chose a 50-year-old TV show to base an action film on, we can’t figure out. Winner: “Straight Outta Compton,” easily.
42 Summer Movies on Our Radar: From 'Avengers,' 'Jurassic World' to 'Magic Mike XXL' (Photos)
"Avengers: Age of Ultron" - May 1 The elite superhero team -- including Scarlett Johansson, Robert Downey Jr., Chris Hemsworth and Chris Evans -- assembles again in this follow up to the 2012 blockbuster.
Marvel/Disney
"Welcome to Me" - May 1 Kristen Wiig stars in this indie drama about a woman with borderline personality disorder who buys herself a cable access talk show after winning the lottery. Will Ferrell and Adam McKay produced.
Alchemy
"The D-Train" - May 8 Jack Black plays the head of his high school reunion committee who must convince the most popular guy in his class (James Marsden) to attend the reunion in this Sundance pic.
IFC
"Maggie" - May 8 Arnold Schwarzenegger stars in this indie as a father who stays with his daughter (Abigail Breslin) as she transforms into a zombie.
Roadside Attractions
"Hot Pursuit" - May 8 Reese Witherspoon and Sofia Vergara star in this buddy comedy about a straight-laced cop (Witherspoon) tasked with escorting a witness (Vergara) to her trial
Warner Bros
"The Connection" - May 15 Oscar-winner Jean Dujardin stars in this French crime thriller as a real-life policeman who dedicates his career to taking down a drug lord (Gilles Lellouche)
Relativity
"Mad Max: Fury Road" - May 15 Tom Hardy takes over the role that made Mel Gibson an international star in this reboot from the madcap mind of George Miller
Warner Bros.
"Pitch Perfect 2" - May 15 Anna Kendrick returns for the song-filled sequel to the 2012 musical smash hit.
Universal
"Poltergeist" - May 22 Sam Rockwell leads a remake of the 1982 horror classic that was originally written by Steven Spielberg.
Twentieth Century Fox
"Tomorrowland" - May 22 George Clooney and Britt Robertson star in a sci-fi fantasy about a man and woman who must discover the secrets of a strange land lost in time and space.
Disney
"Aloha" - May 29 Cameron Crowe directs Bradley Cooper and Emma Stone in a romantic comedy about a military contractor overseeing a satellite launch in Hawaii.
Columbia Pictures/Twentieth Century Fox
"San Andreas" - May 29
Dwayne Johnson stars in a disaster movie about a chopper pilot who must rescue his daughter (Alexandra Daddario) after a massive earthquake strikes California.
Warner Bros.
"Entourage" - June 5 Vince (Adrian Grenier) drives Ari (Jeremy Piven) up the wall when he decides to direct and star in his own movie in the big screen version of the HBO show.
HBO/Warner Bros.
"Spy" - June 5 Melissa McCarthy co-wrote and stars in a comedy about a CIA analyst who gets her chance to work in the field when an arms dealer (Rose Byrne) threatens to destabilize the world.
Twentieth Century Fox
"Insidious Chapter 3" - June 5 In this horror prequel, psychic Elise Rainier (Lin Shaye) agrees to help teenager (Stefanie Scott) who is being targeted by a supernatural force.
Blumhouse
"Jurassic World" - June 12 Chris Pratt and Bryce Dallas-Howard lead the latest installment in the Michael Crichton-inspired series. This time around, the park is terrorized by a genetically-engineered dinosaur that escapes its enclosure.
Legendary Pictures
"Me and Earl and The Dying Girl" - June 12 This 2015 Sundance Grand Jury winner follows an anti-social teen (Thomas Mann) who falls in love with a classmate (Olivia Cooke) who has leukemia.
Fox Searchlight
"Dope" - June 19 This Sundance breakout centers on a teen (Shameik Moore) trying to make his Ivy League dreams come true in his tough LA neighborhood.
Open Road Films
"Inside Out" - June 19 Pixar takes us inside the mind of a little girl as her emotions vie for control. Amy Poehler, Mindy Kaling and Bill Hader all lend their voices.
Disney/Pixar
"Ted 2" - June 26 Seth MacFarlane's foul-mouthed teddy bear returns in the sequel that finds Ted (voiced by MacFarlane) and John (Mark Wahlberg) fighting in court to prove that Ted is human.
Universal Pictures
"Batkid Begins" June 26 This feel-good documentary tells the story of a five-year-old leukemia patient who inspired people from all over the world to help him live out his dream of being Batman for a day.
Warner Bros
"Max" - June 26 A Marine-trained German shepherd is sent to live with the family of his former handler (Robbie Amell), who was killed in Afghanistan
Warner Bros
"Big Game" - June 26 A teenage-boy (Onni Tommila) rescues the President of the United States (Samuel L. Jackson) when Air Force One crash lands near his campsite.
EuropaCorp
"Magic Mike XXL" - July 1 Channing Tatum gyrates his way into this sequel as stripper "Magic" Mike who decides to attend an annual stripper conference in Myrtle Beach.
Warner Bros.
"Terminator: Genisys" - July 1 Arnold Schwarzenegger is back as the unstoppable android as he fights to protect Sarah Connor (Emilia Clarke) with the help of Kyle Reese (Jai Courtney).
Paramount
"Minions" - July 2 The Minions are back in this "Despicable Me" spinoff. This time, they are recruited by a super-villainess (Sandra Bullock) in her plot to take over the world.
Universal Pictures
"The Bronze" - July 10 "Big Bang Theory" star Melissa Rauch co-wrote and stars in this comedy about a former Olympic athlete clinging to her last shreds of fame.
Relativity
"Self/Less" - July 10 Ryan Reynolds stars in this thriller about a wealthy, dying man who pays to have his consciousness transferred into a younger body. When he begins to investigate where the body came from, he discovers a terrifying mystery
Focus Features
"Ant-Man" - July 17 Paul Rudd leads this Marvel comic adaptation about a con man who is given a device that can shrink him in scale by Dr. Hank Pym (Michael Douglas).
Marvel/Disney
"Trainwreck" - July 17 Amy Schumer and Bill Hader star in a Judd Apatow comedy about a magazine writer (Schumer) who refuses to commit, until her relationship with a doctor (Hader) challenges her notions of monogamy.
Universal Pictures
"Stanford Prison Experiment" - July 17 Based on the infamous 1971 psychological experiment, 24 male students volunteer to play prisoners or guards in a mock-prison, only for things to spiral completely out of control.
IFC
"Paper Towns" - July 24 Based on the novel by John Green, Nat Wolff plays a boy who convinces his friends to embark on a road trip to find the missing girl next door (Cara Delevingne).
Twentieth Century Fox
"Pixels" - July 24 Adam Sandler leads a team of gamers (Kevin James, Josh Gad, Peter Dinklage) who must fight aliens that invade Earth in the form of classic video games.
Columbia Pictures
"Southpaw" - July 24 Jake Gyllenhaal packed on the muscle for this drama about a troubled boxer fighting to regain custody of his daughter. Antoine Fuqua directed based on a script by Kurt Sutter.
The Weinstein Company
"Irrational Man" - July 24 Joaquin Phoenix and Emma Stone star in a Woody Allen film about a college philosophy professor (Phoenix) who enters into a relationship with his student (Stone).
Sony Classics
"Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation" - July 31 Tom Cruise once again does the impossible as he leads his team against an international syndicate intent on destroying the Impossible Mission Force.
Paramount
"End of the Tour" - July 31 Jesse Eisenberg stars as Rolling Stone journalist David Lipsky as he conducts a series of interviews with author David Foster Wallace (Jason Segel). The film is based on Lipsky's book, "Although of Course You End Up Becoming Yourself."
A24
"Fantastic Four" - August 7 Miles Teller (Mr. Fantastic), Michael B. Jordan (Human Torch), Kate Mara (Invisible Girl), and Jamie Bell (The Thing) lead this comic adaptation about the superhero team that gained powers after an accident in space.
Twentieth Century Fox
"Masterminds" - August 7 Kristen Wiig, Jason Sudekis and Zach Galifianakis star in this heist comedy about a real 1997 armored car robbery in North Carolina
Relativity
"The Man From U.N.C.L.E." - August 14 Henry Cavill and Armie Hammer play an American and Russian agent forced to team up to stop an evil organization trying to steal nuclear weapons. The film is based on the 1964 TV series of the same name.
Warner Bros
"Straight Outta Compton" - August 14 O'Shea Jackson Jr., the son of Ice Cube, plays his father in this look at the impact of the revolutionary gangster rap group NWA.
Universal
"Hitman: Agent 47" - August 28 Rupert Friend stars in this video game adaptation about a genetically engineered assassin who teams up with a mysterious young woman to bring down an evil corporation.
Twentieth Century Fox
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TheWrap Summer Movie Preview 2015: ”Mission: Impossible 5,“ ”Entourage,“ ”Mad Max: Fury Road“ also among season’s big releases