
TheWrap’s Awards Tracker uses a proprietary algorithm built on 25 years of awards history to forecast Academy Awards outcomes across eight major categories. Updated in real time, it maps how early nominations and wins at shows like the Golden Globes, DGA, and BAFTA impact their chances of Academy Award glory. Learn more about the methodology here.
Jump to:
Best Picture
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Wicked: For Good
Probability: 67% No change: 0%Prior to 2026, only 11 sequels have been nominated for Best Picture.
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Train Dreams
Probability: 67% No change: 0%Joel Edgerton hasn’t starred in a Best Picture nominee since 2012’s “Zero Dark Thirty.”
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Sinners
Probability: 67% No change: 0%Only eight horror films have been nominated for Best Picture. You can read William Bibbiani’s breakdown here.
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Sentimental Value
Probability: 67% No change: 0%Joachim Trier’s “The Worst Person in the World” picked up nominations for Best International Feature and Best Original Screenplay, but it was not recognized in Best Picture.
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One Battle After Another
Probability: 67% No change: 0%“One Battle After Another” would be the third consecutive Best Picture nominee for director Paul Thomas Anderson following “Licorice Pizza” and “Phantom Thread.”
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Marty Supreme
Probability: 67% No change: 0%Timothée Chalamet has starred in seven Best Picture nominees across the past 10 Academy Awards ceremonies.
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Jay Kelly
Probability: 67% No change: 0%Noah Baumbach’s last Oscar nomination was not for a film he directed, but for co-writing Greta Gerwig’s “Barbie.”
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Hamnet
Probability: 67% No change: 0%“Hamnet” could join “Hamlet,” “West Side Story” and “Shakespeare in Love” as the fourth Shakespeare-related story to win Best Picture.
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Frankenstein
Probability: 67% No change: 0%No film starring a title character of the Universal Monster movies has ever been nominated for Best Picture.
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Bugonia
Probability: 67% No change: 0%“Bugonia” would be Yorgos Lanthimos and Emma Stone’s third collaboration (following “The Favourite” and “Poor Things”) to get a Best Picture nomination.
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Weapons
Probability: 10% No change: 0%Zach Cregger could follow in Jordan Peele’s footsteps as a sketch comedy star who directed one of the few horror movies to be nominated for Best Picture.
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Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
Probability: 10% No change: 0%Both of Rian Johnson’s prior “Knives Out” movies were nominated for screenplay awards. Neither got a Best Picture nod.
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Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
Probability: 10% No change: 0%Biopics about musicians have been nominated for Best Picture at the last three Academy Awards ceremonies. At least one biographical film has been in every Best Picture lineup since 2008 — before the Academy expanded from five nominees.
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Sorry, Baby
Probability: 10% No change: 0%Eva Victor could join a short list of filmmakers whose debut features were nominated for Best Picture.
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Song Sung Blue
Probability: 10% No change: 0%Hugh Jackman has not starred in a Best Picture nominee since 2012’s “Les Misérables.”
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The Secret Agent
Probability: 10% No change: 0%Last year, “I’m Still Here” became the first Brazilian film and the first Portuguese-speaking film nominated for Best Picture. “The Secret Agent” would be the second.
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Nuremberg
Probability: 10% No change: 0%It’s been more than 60 years since Stanley Kramer’s “Judgment at Nuremberg” was nominated for 11 Oscars
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Nouvelle Vague
Probability: 10% No change: 0%“Nouvelle Vague” is one of two films directed by Richard Linklater in contention for Best Picture this year.
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No Other Choice
Probability: 10% No change: 0%Like Jafar Panahi, Park Chan-wook has never had a film nominated for an Oscar across his acclaimed career.
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It Was Just An Accident
Probability: 10% No change: 0%Despite an acclaimed career, Jafar Panahi has never had a film nominated for an Oscar.
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Is This Thing On?
Probability: 10% No change: 0%After “Maestro,” Bradley Cooper joined a rare class of filmmakers, including Orson Welles, James L. Brooks and Frank Darabont, whose first two features were nominated for Best Picture.
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A House of Dynamite
Probability: 10% No change: 0%“A House of Dynamite” would be Kathryn Bigelow’s first Best Picture nomination in more than a decade.
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Hedda
Probability: 10% No change: 0%No adaptation of a Henrik Ibsen play has been nominated for Best Picture.
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Blue Moon
Probability: 10% No change: 0%Richard Linklater and Ethan Hawke waited years to develop “Blue Moon” until Hawke had appropriately aged into the role.
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Avatar: Fire & Ash
Probability: 10% No change: 0%“Avatar” could join “The Godfather” and “The Lord of the Rings” series as the only franchises with three consecutive Best Picture nominations.
Best Director
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Ryan Coogler
Sinners
Probability: 60% No change: 0%“Sinners” could bring Ryan Coogler his first directing nod at a major awards ceremony.
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Joachim Trier
Sentimental Value
Probability: 60% No change: 0%Joachim Trier picked up a screenplay nomination for “The Worst Person in the World,” but he missed out on Best Director.
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Paul Thomas Anderson
One Battle After Another
Probability: 60% No change: 0%Paul Thomas Anderson has been nominated for 11 Oscars. He has won 0.
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Josh Safdie
Marty Supreme
Probability: 60% No change: 0%“Marty Supreme” marks Josh Safdie’s first solo directorial feature since his debut film. It could also bring him his first Oscar nomination.
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Chloé Zhao
Hamnet
Probability: 60% No change: 0%After becoming only the second woman to win Best Director at the Oscars, Chloé Zhao could become the first to win twice.
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Guilermo del Toro
Frankenstein
Probability: 60% No change: 0%“Frankenstein” would mark only Guillermo del Toro’s second nomination for Best Director. See our article on Frankenstein for more.
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Jon M. Chu
Wicked: For Good
Probability: 32% No change: 0%Despite winning Best Director at Critics’ Choice and the National Board of Review, Jon M. Chu missed the nomination at the Oscars for “Wicked.”
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Clint Bentley
Train Dreams
Probability: 32% No change: 0%This would be Clint Bentley’s second year in a row as a nominee — though last year, he was nominated as a screenwriter for “Sing Sing,” which he did not direct.
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Richard Linklater
Nouvelle Vague
Probability: 32% No change: 0%Richard Linklater helmed two films released in 2025, both of which find themselves on the list of Best Director contenders.
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Park Chan-Wook
No Other Choice
Probability: 32% No change: 0%Park Chan-wook has never received an Oscar nomination, nor have any of his films.
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Jafar Panahi
It Was Just An Accident
Probability: 32% No change: 0%Jafar Panahi would be the first Iranian director to be nominated in this category.
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Kathryn Bigelow
A House of Dynamite
Probability: 32% No change: 0%Kathryn Bigelow holds the distinction of being the first woman to win an Oscar for Best Director. Only two more have followed.
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Yorgos Lanthimos
Bugonia
Probability: 32% No change: 0%Yorgos Lanthimos has been nominated for five Oscars (two Best Picture, two Best Director, one Best Original Screenplay).
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Richard Linklater
Blue Moon
Probability: 32% No change: 0%Richard Linklater directs frequent collaborator Ethan Hawke for a ninth time in “Blue Moon.”
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James Cameron
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Probability: 32% No change: 0%After winning Best Director for “Titanic,” James Cameron was again nominated for the prize for “Avatar.” Though “The Way of Water” was nominated for Best Picture, Cameron did not get a third Director nod.
Best Actor
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Joel Edgerton
Train Dreams
Probability: 72% No change: 0%Joel Edgerton has never gotten a Best Actor nomination.
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Michael B. Jordan
Sinners
Probability: 72% No change: 0%While “Sinners” could bring Ryan Coogler his first nominations for directing and screenwriting, it could give Michael B. Jordan his first Oscar nomination overall.
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Wagner Moura
The Secret Agent
Probability: 72% No change: 0%Wagner Moura already picked up the Best Actor prize at Cannes Film Festival. Now, he could become first Brazillian actor nominated in this category — and the third nominated for acting overall.
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Leonardo DiCaprio
One Battle After Another
Probability: 72% No change: 0%Leonardo DiCaprio could surpass Denzel Washington and Bradley Cooper as the most-nominated male actor this century, with 6 nods since 2000.
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Timothée Chalamet
Marty Supreme
Probability: 72% No change: 0%Following Colman Domingo, Timothée Chalamet could become the second person this decade nominated for Best Actor two years in a row.
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Ethan Hawke
Blue Moon
Probability: 72% No change: 0%Ethan Hawke could join the five-timers club of Oscar nominees. Two of his prior nominations were for acting, while two were for screenwriting. Three of these four nominations were for Richard Linklater collaborations.
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Daniel Craig
Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
Probability: 21% No change: 0%Daniel Craig has been nominated for playing Benoit Blanc twice at the Golden Globes.
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Jeremy Allen White
Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
Probability: 21% No change: 0%The past four Academy Awards ceremonies have featured Best Actor nominees who portrayed real musicians.
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Dwayne Johnson
The Smashing Machine
Probability: 21% No change: 0%The last year the Best Actor race didn’t involve an actor portraying a real person was 2007.
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Hugh Jackman
Song Sung Blue
Probability: 21% No change: 0%This would mark Hugh Jackman’s second Best Actor nomination — both for musical performances.
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Rami Malek
Nuremberg
Probability: 21% No change: 0%To date, Rami Malek’s only nomination is for his Oscar-winning role in “Bohemian Rhapsody.”
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Lee Byung-hun
No Other Choice
Probability: 21% No change: 0%Lee Byung-hun would be the second South Korean actor nominated in this category — and the third South Korean performer nominated for acting overall.
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George Clooney
Jay Kelly
Probability: 21% No change: 0%After George Clooney got four acting nominations (one win) across seven seasons, “Jay Kelly” would mark his first acting nod since 2012.
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Oscar Isaac
Frankenstein
Probability: 21% No change: 0%“Frankenstein” would mark Oscar Isaac’s first Academy Awards nomination.
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Jesse Plemons
Bugonia
Probability: 21% No change: 0%Jesse Plemons has appeared in seven Best Picture nominees, but he was only nominated for “The Power of the Dog.”
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Daniel Day-Lewis
Anemone
Probability: 21% No change: 0%Daniel Day-Lewis got his last Best Actor nod for his “retirement film,” “Phantom Thread.”
Best Actress
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Amanda Seyfried
The Testament of Ann Lee
Probability: 74% No change: 0%This would be Amanda Seyfried’s first Oscar nomination for a musical, and her second nomination overall.
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Renate Reinsve
Sentimental Value
Probability: 74% No change: 0%Renate Reinsve received much acclaim for her performance in her last collaboration with Joachim Trier, “The Worst Person in the World,” though she missed out on the Oscar nomination.
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Chase Infiniti
One Battle After Another
Probability: 74% No change: 0%Chase Infiniti would join a rare class of actors nominated for their first feature film performance.
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Rose Byrne
If I Had Legs I'd Kick You
Probability: 74% No change: 0%Rose Byrne has gotten off to an early start with wins at Berlin International Film Festival and New York Film Critics Circle, as well as nominations at ceremonies like the Gothams and the Independent Spirit Awards.
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Jessie Buckley
Hamnet
Probability: 74% No change: 0%“Hamnet” would mark Jessie Buckley’s second Oscar nomination this decade following her Best Supporting Actress nomination for “The Lost Daughter.”
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Emma Stone
Bugonia
Probability: 74% No change: 0%Emma Stone and Sean Penn both have the opportunity to become the first actors to win three performance Oscars this century.
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Cynthia Erivo
Wicked: For Good
Probability: 18% No change: 0%Cynthia Erivo could join a short list of actors to be nominated twice for playing the same character.
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Kate Hudson
Song Sung Blue
Probability: 18% No change: 0%Kate Hudson has not been nominated for an Oscar in the 25 years since her turn in “Almost Famous.”
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Tessa Thompson
Hedda
Probability: 18% No change: 0%Tessa Thompson would follow Glenda Jackson as the second woman to score a Best Actress nomination for playing Hedda Gabler.
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Jennifer Lawrence
Die My Love
Probability: 18% No change: 0%This would mark Jennifer Lawrence’s first nomination since being recognized four times between 2010 and 2015.
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Sydney Sweeney
Christy
Probability: 18% No change: 0%The Best Actress category has not gone without a biographical performance since 2010.
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Julia Roberts
After the Hunt
Probability: 18% No change: 0%Julia Roberts could become a five-time acting nominee more than a decade after her last nomination.
Best Supporting Actor
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Stellan Skarsgård
Sentimental Value
Probability: 72% No change: 0%This would mark Stellan Skarsgård’s first Oscar nomination in his 53-year career.
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Sean Penn
One Battle After Another
Probability: 72% No change: 0%Sean Penn and Emma Stone both have the opportunity to become the first actors to win three performance Oscars this century.
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Benicio del Toro
One Battle After Another
Probability: 72% No change: 0%2026 marks 25 years since Benicio del Toro won his acting Oscar for 2001’s “Traffic.”
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Adam Sandler
Jay Kelly
Probability: 72% No change: 0%Adam Sandler once again finds himself in the awards race in the same season as Josh and Benny Safdie — who nearly directed him to a Best Actor nomination in 2019’s “Uncut Gems.”
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Paul Mescal
Hamnet
Probability: 72% No change: 0%This would be Paul Mescal’s second acting nomination — despite only appearing in his first movie in 2021.
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Jacob Elordi
Frankenstein
Probability: 72% No change: 0%Jacob Elordi could become the first actor to be nominated for playing the iconic role of Frankenstein’s Creature — a part taken on by the likes of Christopher Lee and Robert De Niro.
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Jonathan Bailey
Wicked: For Good
Probability: 25% No change: 0%Jonathan Bailey missed the Supporting Actor nomination for “Wicked” last year.
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Josh O'Connor
Wake Up Dead Man
Probability: 25% No change: 0%Josh O’Connor could become the first actor to get a nomination for appearing in a “Knives Out” movie.
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Jeremy Strong
Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
Probability: 25% No change: 0%Jeremy Strong has already been nominated for one Oscar and three Emmys this decade.
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Delroy Lindo
Sinners
Probability: 25% No change: 0%Delroy Lindo once again finds himself in the awards race following a notable omission from the Best Actor lineup in 2021 for “Da 5 Bloods.”
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Miles Caton
Sinners
Probability: 25% No change: 0%Miles Caton would be the 10th youngest Best Supporting Actor nominee ever.
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Billy Crudup
Jay Kelly
Probability: 25% No change: 0%Billy Crudup is one of the contenders with the shortest screen time in this year’s race with a performance only spanning a few scenes.
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Andrew Scott
Blue Moon
Probability: 25% No change: 0%Andrew Scott was nominated at last year’s SAG, Golden Globes and Critics Choice ceremonies — on the TV side for “Ripley.”
Best Supporting Actress
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Ariana Grande
Wicked: For Good
Probability: 69% No change: 0%Ariana Grande could join a short list of actors to be nominated twice for playing the same character.
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Amy Madigan
Weapons
Probability: 69% No change: 0%It has been 40 years since Amy Madigan got her last Oscar nomination.
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Wunmi Mosaku
Sinners
Probability: 69% No change: 0%Wunmi Mosaku already won Outstanding Supporting Performance at the Gotham Film Awards.
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Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas
Sentimental Value
Probability: 69% No change: 0%Like her “Sentimental Value” castmates, this would be the first Oscar nomination for Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas.
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Elle Fanning
Sentimental Value
Probability: 69% No change: 0%Despite being nominated for numerous acting awards since she was a child, Elle Fanning has never gotten an Oscar nomination.
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Teyana Taylor
One Battle After Another
Probability: 69% No change: 0%Teyana Taylor could join a short list of musicians who win acting awards at the Oscars — a feat that could also be accomplished by Ariana Grande.
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Emily Blunt
The Smashing Machine
Probability: 26% No change: 0%Emily Blunt could secure her second nomination this decade following her turn in “Oppenheimer.”
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Hailee Steinfeld
Sinners
Probability: 26% No change: 0%Hailee Steinfeld was last nominated for an Oscar for “True Grit” when she was only 14 years old.
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Jayme Lawson
Sinners
Probability: 26% No change: 0%Jayme Lawson is part of the robust supporting cast that makes “Sinners” a strong contender for the inaugural Best Casting category at the Oscars.
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Regina Hall
One Battle After Another
Probability: 26% No change: 0%“One Battle After Another” could become the first film to receive six acting nominations in a single year.
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Gwyneth Paltrow
Marty Supreme
Probability: 26% No change: 0%Gwyneth Paltrow hasn’t been nominated for an Oscar since she won in 1999 for “Shakespeare in Love” — a film with a few narrative connections to this year’s “Hamnet.”
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Odessa A'Zion
Marty Supreme
Probability: 26% No change: 0%Odessa A’Zion also stars in “I Love LA,” which will release its final episode just days before “Marty Supreme” hits theaters.
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Jennifer Lopez
Kiss of the Spider Woman
Probability: 26% No change: 0%Jennifer Lopez received numerous nominations for her role in “Hustlers,” including SAG, Golden Glboes and Critics Choice. She was not nominated for an Oscar.
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Rebecca Ferguson
A House of Dynamite
Probability: 26% No change: 0%This would mark Rebecca Ferguson’s first Oscar nomination, though she has starred in two Best Picture nominees: “Dune” and “Dune: Part Two.”
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Nina Hoss
Hedda
Probability: 26% No change: 0%Nina Hoss recently received acclaim for her supporting role in “Tár,” though it didn’t materialize in an Oscar nomination.
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Ayo Edebiri
After the Hunt
Probability: 26% No change: 0%Ayo Edebiri’s Oscar nomination would come hot on the heels of her nods at the 2025 Emmys for acting in and directing “The Bear.”
Best Screenplay (Original)
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Weapons
Zach Cregger
Probability: 76% No change: 0%Zach Cregger’s “Weapons” screenplay was at the center of an intense bidding war. New Line won for a reported $38 million.
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Sorry, Baby
Eva Victor
Probability: 76% No change: 0%“Sorry, Baby” could join a growing list of movies nominated only for their screenplays, including the first two “Knives Out” movies.
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Sinners
Ryan Coogler
Probability: 76% No change: 0%Ryan Coogler has been nominated for two Oscars before: for producing “Judas and the Black Messiah,” and for co-writing the song “Lift Me Up” from “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever.”
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Sentimental Value
Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier
Probability: 76% No change: 0%Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier were previously nominated for this category with “The Worst Person in the World,” the final film in their Oslo Trilogy.
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Marty Supreme
Josh Safdie, Ronald Bronstein
Probability: 76% No change: 0%This year, Josh Safdie competes in the Original Screenplay category, while his brother, Benny, is eligible for Adapted Screenplay with “The Smashing Machine.”
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Jay Kelly
Noah Baumbach, Emily Mortimer
Probability: 76% No change: 0%“Jay Kelly” would mark Noah Baumbach’s fourth screenwriting nomination at the Oscars, and Emily Mortimer’s first Oscar nomination in general.
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The Secret Agent
Kleber Mendonça Filho
Probability: 35% No change: 0%“The Secret Agent” would become the first Brazilian film nominated for Best Original Screenplay, and Kleber Mendonça Filho the first Brazilian screenwriter.
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It Was Just An Accident
Jafar Panahi
Probability: 35% No change: 0%Asghar Farhadi (“A Separation”) is the only Iranian screenwriter with an Original Screenplay nomination.
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Is This Thing On?
Bradley Cooper, Will Arnett, Mark Chappell, John Bishop
Probability: 35% No change: 0%Bradley Cooper has 12 Oscar nominations and 0 wins.
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A House of Dynamite
Noah Oppenheim
Probability: 35% No change: 0%This would mark the first Oscar nomination for former NBC News President Noah Oppenheim.
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Blue Moon
Robert Kaplow
Probability: 35% No change: 0%While “Blue Moon” is based on real people, it is a fictional imagining of a night in songwriter Lorenz Hart’s life.
Best Screenplay (Adapted)
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Train Dreams
Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar
Probability: 71% No change: 0%Greg Kwedar and Clint Bentley were nominated for Adapted Screenplay last year alongside Clarence Maclin and John “Divine G” Whitfield for writing “Sing Sing.”
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One Battle After Another
Paul Thomas Anderson
Probability: 71% No change: 0%Paul Thomas Anderson’s 11 Oscar nominations include five for his screenplays. He has yet to win.
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No Other Choice
Park Chan-wook, Lee Kyoung-mi, Jahye Lee, Don McKellar
Probability: 71% No change: 0%Park Chan-Wook has never been nominated for an Oscar.
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Hamnet
Chloé Zhao, Maggie O'Farrell
Probability: 71% No change: 0%Chloé Zhao was previously nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay for her Best Picture winner “Nomadland.” This time, she writes alongside Maggie O’Farrell, who wrote the novel “Hamnet.”
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Frankenstein
Guillermo del Toro
Probability: 71% No change: 0%“Frankenstein” would mark Guillermo Del Toro’s first screenplay nomination since his Best Picture winner “The Shape of Water” (which lost in the Best Original Screenplay category to “Get Out”).
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Bugonia
Will Tracy
Probability: 71% No change: 0%“Bugonia” is only the second film written Will Tracy, former editor-in-chief of “The Onion.”
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Wicked: For Good
Winnie Holzman, Dana Fox
Probability: 39% No change: 0%“Wicked” got 10 nominations at last year’s Oscars, but Best Adapted Screenplay was not one of them.
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Wake Up Dead Man
Rian Johnson
Probability: 39% No change: 0%Rian Johnson could become the first screenwriter to receive Oscar nominations for writing three consecutive films in a series.
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Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
Scott Cooper
Probability: 39% No change: 0%Scott Cooper received a WGA nomination for the screenplay for “Crazy Heart,” but not an Academy Awards nomination.
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Song Sung Blue
Craig Brewer
Probability: 39% No change: 0%“Song Sung Blue” directly adapts Greg Kohs’s 2008 documentary of the same name.
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Nuremberg
James Vanderbilt
Probability: 39% No change: 0%This would be James Vanderbilt’s first Oscar nomination, though he did receive a WGA nod for the film “Zodiac.”
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Hedda
Nia DaCosta
Probability: 39% No change: 0%Nia DaCosta draws from the oldest work this season, adapting Henrik Ibsen’s 1891 play “Hedda Gabler.”
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Avatar: Fire and Ash
James Cameron, Josh Friedman, Rick Jaffa, Shane Salerno, Amanda Silver
Probability: 39% No change: 0%Neither “Avatar” film has been nominated for its screenplay, despite both being Best Picture nominees.
Methodology
The Awards Tracker draws from 25 years of historical data across eight major awards shows: SAG, DGA, BAFTA, WGA, PGA, Golden Globes, Critics Choice, and the Oscars. For each year since 2000, we compiled all nominees and winners in eight top Academy Award categories: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress, Best Original Screenplay, and Best Adapted Screenplay.
Using this comprehensive dataset, we calculated the percentage likelihood that a nomination or win at a precursor ceremony translates to an Oscar nomination or win. These probabilities update in real time throughout awards season as new nominations and winners are announced, giving users an up-to-date snapshot of each contender’s statistical path to the Oscars.
Our goal is to provide a data-backed, transparent view into the momentum and predictive power of precursor awards as the season unfolds.