Awards Tracker

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TheWrap’s Awards Tracker uses a proprietary algorithm built on 25 years of awards history to forecast Academy Awards outcomes across eight major categories. Updated in real time after Oscar nominations on Jan. 22, it maps how early nominations and wins at shows like the Golden Globes, DGA, and BAFTA impact their chances of Academy Award glory. Learn more about the methodology here.

Jump to:

Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actor
Best Actress
Best Supporting ACTOR
Best Supporting ACTRESS
Best Original Screenplay
Best Adapted Screenplay

Best Picture

  1. One Battle After Another
    Probability: 99% No change: 0%
    Nominations: Oscars, SAG, BAFTA, PGA, GG, Critics Choice
    Wins: BAFTA, PGA, GG, Critics Choice
    “One Battle After Another” marks the third consecutive Best Picture nominee for director Paul Thomas Anderson following “Licorice Pizza” and “Phantom Thread.”
  2. Sinners
    Probability: 7.69% Up: 6.69%
    Nominations: Oscars, PGA, Critics Choice
    This century, when a nomination leader also won Best Ensemble at the Actor Awards, it also won Best Picture 89% of the time. The only holdout was “American Hustle.” However, only two movies have won Best Picture after only winning SAG ensemble: “Crash” and “Parasite,” neither of which was a nomination leader. “Sinners” has momentum, but a Best Picture win would be a massive upset.
  3. Hamnet
    Probability: 3.8% Down: -29.53%
    Nominations: Oscars, SAG, BAFTA, PGA, GG, Critics Choice
    Wins: GG
    “Hamnet’s” wins and losses this season resemble three other films this century, including “Moonlight,” which won Best Picture.
  4. Frankenstein
    Probability: 3.8% Down: -10.49%
    Nominations: Oscars, SAG, PGA, GG, Critics Choice
    Five other films this century have gotten the same Best Picture nominations and wins as “Frankenstein.” One (“Million Dollar Baby”) won Best Picture.
  5. Sentimental Value
    Probability: 1% No change: 0%
    Nominations: Oscars, SAG, BAFTA, PGA, GG, Critics Choice
    Wins: SAG
    Joachim Trier’s “The Worst Person in the World” picked up nominations for Best International Feature and Best Original Screenplay, but it was not recognized in Best Picture or any acting categories.
  6. Train Dreams
    Probability: 1% No change: 0%
    Nominations: Oscars, BAFTA, PGA, GG, Critics Choice
    Joel Edgerton last starred in a Best Picture nominee in 2012 (“Zero Dark Thirty”)
  7. The Secret Agent
    Probability: 1% No change: 0%
    Nominations: Oscars, GG
    Last year, “I’m Still Here” became the first Brazilian film and the first Portuguese-speaking film nominated for Best Picture. “The Secret Agent” is now the second.
  8. Marty Supreme
    Probability: 1% No change: 0%
    Nominations: Oscars, SAG, BAFTA, PGA, GG, Critics Choice
    Only four films this century have won Best Actor and Best Picture: “Gladiator,” “The King’s Speech,” “The Artist” and “Oppenheimer.”
  9. F1
    Probability: 1% No change: 0%
    Nominations: Oscars, PGA
    Read TheWrap’s coverage with the team behind “F1” here
  10. Bugonia
    Probability: 1% No change: 0%
    Nominations: Oscars, PGA, GG, Critics Choice
    “Bugonia” marks Yorgos Lanthimos and Emma Stone’s third collaboration (following “The Favourite” and “Poor Things”) to get a Best Picture nomination.

Best Director

  1. Paul Thomas Anderson One Battle After Another
    Probability: 90% Down: -2.31%
    Nominations: Oscars, DGA, BAFTA, GG, Critics Choice
    Wins: DGA, BAFTA, GG, Critics Choice
    Prior to this year, Paul Thomas Anderson had been nominated for 11 Oscars. He won 0.
  2. Ryan Coogler Sinners
    Probability: 5.56% Up: 0.3%
    Nominations: Oscars, DGA, BAFTA, GG, Critics Choice
    Despite his film “Black Panther” being the only MCU film to get a Best Picture nomination, “Sinners” marks Ryan Coogler’s first Best Director nod at the Academy Awards.
  3. Chloé Zhao Hamnet
    Probability: 5.56% Up: 0.3%
    Nominations: Oscars, DGA, BAFTA, GG, Critics Choice
    After becoming only the second woman to win Best Director at the Oscars, Chloé Zhao could become the first to win twice.
  4. Joachim Trier Sentimental Value
    Probability: 1% No change: 0%
    Nominations: Oscars, BAFTA, GG, Critics Choice
    Joachim Trier picked up a screenplay nomination for “The Worst Person in the World,” but he missed out on Best Director.
  5. Josh Safdie Marty Supreme
    Probability: 1% Down: -2.85%
    Nominations: Oscars, DGA, BAFTA, Critics Choice
    Only seven directors this century got BAFTA, Critics Choice, DGA and Oscar nominations despite missing a nomination at the Golden Globes. One (Roman Polanski for “The Pianist”) won.

Best Actress

  1. Jessie Buckley Hamnet
    Probability: 99% Up: 10.11%
    Nominations: Oscars, SAG, BAFTA, GG, Critics Choice
    Wins: SAG, BAFTA, GG, Critics Choice
    “Hamnet” marks Jessie Buckley’s second Oscar nomination this decade following her Best Supporting Actress nomination for “The Lost Daughter.”
  2. Kate Hudson Song Sung Blue
    Probability: 1% No change: 0%
    Nominations: Oscars, SAG, BAFTA, GG
    Kate Hudson had not been nominated for an Oscar in the 25 years since her turn in “Almost Famous.”
  3. Renate Reinsve Sentimental Value
    Probability: 1% No change: 0%
    Nominations: Oscars, BAFTA, GG, Critics Choice
    Renate Reinsve received much acclaim for her performance in her last collaboration with Joachim Trier, “The Worst Person in the World,” though she missed out on the Oscar nomination.
  4. Rose Byrne If I Had Legs I'd Kick You
    Probability: 1% Down: -32.33%
    Nominations: Oscars, SAG, BAFTA, GG, Critics Choice
    Wins: GG
    Women are exactly half as likely to win Best Actress at the Oscars if they win Best Actress (Musical/Comedy) at the Golden Globes than they are if they win Best Actress (Drama).
  5. Emma Stone Bugonia
    Probability: 1% No change: 0%
    Nominations: Oscars, SAG, BAFTA, GG, Critics Choice
    Emma Stone and Sean Penn both have the opportunity to become the first actors to win three performance Oscars this century.

Best Actor

  1. Michael B. Jordan Sinners
    Probability: 11.11% Up: 7.88%
    Nominations: Oscars, SAG, BAFTA, GG, Critics Choice
    Michael B. Jordan joins Nicolas Cage (“Adaptation”) and Lee Marvin (“Cat Ballou”) on the short list of actors nominated for playing identical twins.
  2. Wagner Moura The Secret Agent
    Probability: 1% No change: 0%
    Nominations: Oscars, GG, Critics Choice
    Wins: GG
    Wagner Moura finds himself in an interesting position. While roughly 65% of Best Actor (Drama) winners at the Golden Globes win Best Actor at the Academy Awards, no Best Actor winner at the Oscars has ever missed a nomination at the Actor Awards since its inception.
  3. Leonardo DiCaprio One Battle After Another
    Probability: 1% No change: 0%
    Nominations: Oscars, SAG, BAFTA, GG, Critics Choice
    Leonardo DiCaprio surpasses Denzel Washington and Bradley Cooper as the most-nominated male actor this century, with 6 nods since 2000.
  4. Timothée Chalamet Marty Supreme
    Probability: 1% Down: -24%
    Nominations: Oscars, SAG, BAFTA, GG, Critics Choice
    Wins: GG, Critics Choice
    Following Colman Domingo, Timothée Chalamet becomes the second person this decade nominated for Best Actor two years in a row.
  5. Ethan Hawke Blue Moon
    Probability: 1% No change: 0%
    Nominations: Oscars, SAG, BAFTA, GG, Critics Choice
    Ethan Hawke joins the five-timers club of Oscar nominees. Two of his prior nominations were for acting, while two were for screenwriting. Three of these previous four nominations were for Richard Linklater collaborations.

Best Supporting Actress

  1. Amy Madigan Weapons
    Probability: 50% Up: 49%
    Nominations: SAG, GG, Critics Choice
    Wins: SAG, Critics Choice
    There are only two other supporting actresses this century who have gotten Oscar nominations, won at Critics Choice, lost at the Golden Globes and missed the BAFTAs entirely: Virginia Madsen (“Sideways”) and Amy Ryan (“Gone Baby Gone”). Neither won the Oscar.
  2. Wunmi Mosaku Sinners
    Probability: 28.57% Down: -48.7%
    Nominations: SAG, BAFTA, Critics Choice
    Wins: BAFTA
    In a Supporting Actress race that’s all over the place, Wunmi Mosaku may bring this year’s nomination leader a crucial acting win.
  3. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas Sentimental Value
    Probability: 1% No change: 0%
    Nominations: BAFTA, GG, Critics Choice
    Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (alongside Renate Reinsve) becomes the first Norwegian performer nominated for acting in Norwegian.
  4. Elle Fanning Sentimental Value
    Probability: 1% No change: 0%
    Nominations: GG, Critics Choice
    Despite being nominated for numerous acting awards since she was a child, Elle Fanning has never gotten an Oscar nomination.
  5. Teyana Taylor One Battle After Another
    Probability: 1% Down: -24%
    Nominations: SAG, BAFTA, GG, Critics Choice
    Wins: GG
    Teyana Taylor could join a short list of musicians who win acting awards at the Oscars.

Best Supporting Actor

  1. Sean Penn One Battle After Another
    Probability: 92.3% Up: 72.3%
    Nominations: Oscars, SAG, BAFTA, GG, Critics Choice
    Wins: SAG, BAFTA
    Sean Penn’s season is a unique one. He won at the Actor Awards and BAFTAs, but lost at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice. However, 92% of nominees who have the wins he has went on to get the Oscar
  2. Stellan Skarsgård Sentimental Value
    Probability: 3.85% No change: 0%
    Nominations: Oscars, BAFTA, GG, Critics Choice
    Wins: GG
    Stellan Skarsgård finds himself in a history-making position, as only two men this century have won Best Supporting Actor without getting an Actor Awards nomination: Benicio del Toro (“Traffic”) and Christoph Waltz (“Django Unchained”). Like Skarsgård, both won the Golden Globe. Unlike Skarsgård, neither was nominated for Critics Choice. This puts Skarsgård in a small group of men (such as Sylvester Stallone in “Creed”) who saw varied nominations and big wins pre-Oscars but eventually missed out on the final prize.
  3. Delroy Lindo Sinners
    Probability: 1% No change: 0%
    Nominations: Oscars
    Delroy Lindo became the surprise of the morning when he got the Oscar nomination despite missing out at the Actor Awards, Golden Globes and Critics Choice.
  4. Benicio del Toro One Battle After Another
    Probability: 1% No change: 0%
    Nominations: Oscars, SAG, BAFTA, GG, Critics Choice
    2026 marks 25 years since Benicio del Toro won his acting Oscar for 2001’s “Traffic.”
  5. Jacob Elordi Frankenstein
    Probability: 1% Down: -32.33%
    Nominations: Oscars, SAG, BAFTA, GG, Critics Choice
    Wins: Critics Choice
    Jacob Elordi becomes the first actor to be nominated for playing the iconic role of Frankenstein’s Creature — a part taken on by the likes of Christopher Lee and Robert De Niro.

Best Screenplay (Original)

  1. Sinners Ryan Coogler
    Probability: 87.5% Up: 18.27%
    Nominations: Oscars, BAFTA, WGA, GG, Critics Choice
    Wins: BAFTA, WGA, Critics Choice
    Ryan Coogler was nominated for two Oscars before “Sinners”: for producing “Judas and the Black Messiah,” and for co-writing the song “Lift Me Up” from “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever.”
  2. Sentimental Value Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier
    Probability: 1% No change: 0%
    Nominations: Oscars, BAFTA, GG, Critics Choice
    Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier were previously nominated for this category with “The Worst Person in the World,” the final film in their Oslo Trilogy.
  3. Marty Supreme Josh Safdie, Ronald Bronstein
    Probability: 1% Down: -4.26%
    Nominations: Oscars, BAFTA, WGA, GG, Critics Choice
    This marks Josh Safdie’s first Oscar nomination for screenwriting. Safdie is nominated alongside co-writer Ronald Bronstein — husband of “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You” writer/director Mary Bronstein.
  4. It Was Just An Accident Jafar Panahi
    Probability: 1% No change: 0%
    Nominations: Oscars, GG
    Asghar Farhadi (“A Separation”) was the only Iranian screenwriter with an Original Screenplay nomination prior to Jafar Panahi.
  5. Blue Moon Robert Kaplow
    Probability: 1% No change: 0%
    Nominations: Oscars
    While “Blue Moon” is based on real people, it is a fictional imagining of a night in songwriter Lorenz Hart’s life.

Best Screenplay (Adapted)

  1. One Battle After Another Paul Thomas Anderson
    Probability: 80% No change: 0%
    Nominations: Oscars, BAFTA, WGA, GG, Critics Choice
    Wins: BAFTA, WGA, GG, Critics Choice
    Paul Thomas Anderson’s 11 pre-2026 Oscar nominations include five for his screenplays. He has yet to win.
  2. Bugonia Will Tracy
    Probability: 11.11% Up: 2.78%
    Nominations: Oscars, BAFTA, WGA, Critics Choice
    “Bugonia” is only the second film written Will Tracy, former editor-in-chief of “The Onion.” This marks his first Oscar nod.
  3. Train Dreams Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar
    Probability: 1% No change: 0%
    Nominations: Oscars, WGA, Critics Choice
    Greg Kwedar and Clint Bentley were nominated for Adapted Screenplay last year alongside Clarence Maclin and John “Divine G” Whitfield for writing “Sing Sing.”
  4. Hamnet Chloé Zhao, Maggie O'Farrell
    Probability: 1% Down: -35.36%
    Nominations: Oscars, BAFTA, WGA, GG, Critics Choice
    Chloé Zhao was previously nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay for her Best Picture winner “Nomadland.” This time, she writes alongside Maggie O’Farrell, who wrote the novel “Hamnet.”
  5. Frankenstein Guillermo del Toro
    Probability: 1% No change: 0%
    Nominations: Oscars, WGA, Critics Choice
    Only three films this century have won Best Screenplay (Adapted) at the Oscars without a BAFTA nomination to match: “The Cider House Rules,” “Moonlight” and “Women Talking.” Unlike “Frankenstein,” all three scored nominations at the Golden Globes.

Methodology

The Awards Tracker draws from 25 years of historical data across eight major awards shows: SAG, DGA, BAFTA, WGA, PGA, Golden Globes, Critics Choice, and the Oscars. For each year since 2000, we compiled all nominees and winners in eight top Academy Award categories: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress, Best Original Screenplay, and Best Adapted Screenplay.

Using this comprehensive dataset, we calculated the percentage likelihood that a nomination or win at a precursor ceremony translates to an Oscar nomination or win. These probabilities update in real time throughout awards season as new nominations and winners are announced, giving users an up-to-date snapshot of each contender’s statistical path to the Oscars.

Our goal is to provide a data-backed, transparent view into the momentum and predictive power of precursor awards as the season unfolds.

Awards Coverage