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After Record 2018 Box Office, 2019 Is Off to Sluggish Start

January’s monthly gross hits a six-year low

| February 3, 2019 @ 10:52 AM
box office Glass James McAvoy Samuel L. Jackson Bruce Willis

Universal Pictures

With several major films coming down the pike, 2019 could still be as big a year for the box office as 2018 was. But first, it’s going to have to get out of this sluggish start.

While Super Bowl weekend typically sees a drop in ticket sales, this weekend’s $67 million combined total was the weakest the box office has seen since August 2017, and the worst Super Bowl weekend since 2000. That comes after a January in which monthly grosses only reached $814.9 million. That’s the lowest since 2013 and ranks outside the top 10 among all January monthly totals.

“We were celebrating an incredibly strong finish to a record 2018, and then a big breeze came in,” said comScore’s Paul Dergarabedian.

Also Read: 'Glass' Leads Weakest Super Bowl Weekend Box Office Since 2000

Several factors are to blame for this weak start, the main one being, as always, the movies that are being offered. December was a far busier year than recent holidays, as every studio had a major release to take advantage of the absence of a “Star Wars” in the marketplace.

With so many films released in December, there was a bigger incentive for most studios to keep most of their early-year releases away from January to both allow their December films to leg out and to stay away from competition like “Aquaman,” which grossed $119 million last month.

In fact, the highest grossing new release in January was “Glass,” grossing $88 million through this weekend. That was a film that came from Universal, which needed a rebound from December after “Mortal Engines” and “Welcome to Marwen” bombed.

Also Read: How 'Bohemian Rhapsody' Crossed $750 Million at Global Box Office - Even Without China

“If you put out all your big products in December, it generates a lot of foot traffic and a big end-of-year boost,” said Dergarabedian. “But when you don’t have a big, $100 million-plus hit film coming out in January or one that expands well like ‘American Sniper,’ the market just ends up treading water until Valentine’s Day.”

For the films that were in theaters, some external factors also kept audiences away. Some analysts and distribution chiefs who spoke with TheWrap pointed to the government shutdown, which forced a lot of wallet tightening not just among furloughed government workers, but also for employees of businesses that rely on government work and employees for revenue.

Dergarabedian notes that severe winter storms in large regions of the country also slowed down cinema business, particularly this weekend, as the polar vortex slammed into the U.S. from the Northeast to the Dakotas.

“Usually when studios blame weather for a slowdown, I see it as a ‘dog ate my homework’ excuse, but this time it’s perfectly valid,” he said. “When it’s just six degrees Fahrenheit outside, you’re not going to go out of your house for anything, let alone to go to the movies.”

Also Read: 2018 Domestic Box Office Finishes With Record $11.85 Billion

Business should pick up next week, starting with the release of “The Lego Movie 2,” which is expected to open to at least $45 million and as much as $60 million. Other films like “Happy Death Day 2U” and “How to Train Your Dragon 3” will also stem the tide. However, 2019’s year-to-date total will continue to fall behind last year’s pace, as there are no films that will come close to the record-shattering performance of “Black Panther.”

Still, one distribution chief who asked to remain anonymous says there’s no reason for concern. With superhero films ready to dominate the market with the likes of “Shazam” and “Avengers: Endgame,” the big boom is still coming… just a bit later than it did last year.

“When you’re in distribution and you have a slow release period like this, it just comes down to the production schedule and when films are ready to be put out,” he said.

“As I projected out the year both for our studio and overall, I still see 2019 being just as strong as 2018, with a big summer slate and a lot of interesting movies in Q4. ‘Lego Movie 2’ will be the start of a return to business as usual and lead into what should be a great March.”

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  • The very first trailer for "Avengers: Endgame" is now out, and surely you all have seen it by now if you're reading this. It's not super heavy on detail, which is to be expected this far out, but there are still details we can glean about the plot of this crazy thing. So let's do dive in. 1. Tony Stark is adrift in space in the Guardians' ship All of the first minute of the trailer is spent with Tony Stark, who is adrift in space in the Milano seemingly about to run out of food and air. Tony is recording a goodbye message to Pepper Potts. It seems likely this could be the very beginning of "Avengers: Endgame," with a rescue to mirror Thanos' attack on the Asgardians in "Avengers: Infinity War." The question is: who's doing the rescuing? Could Captain Marvel show up on the stage that early in this? 2. Nebula is with him Nebula was the only other survivor from Titan, and I guess the ship that she rammed into Thanos during the big battle in "Infinity War" wasn't fit to fly after she wrecked it.Of course, if Nebula is with Tony, why wouldn't they be able to get anywhere? She would know how to fly the Milano, you would think. Hmmm. 2. Thanos is still wearing the burned up Infinity Gauntlet We get a brief look at Thanos on that planet he retired to after doing mass murder on a scale hitherto undreamt of. He's set up his armor as a scarecrow, and he's still wearing the Infinity Gauntlet. We know it's not completely broken -- we saw him use the burnt-out gauntlet to teleport out of Wakanda at the end of the battle there. But is there a reason he's still wearing it? Maybe he knows that the Avengers will need it if they wanna undo what he did? That's how it goes in the comics, anyway. 3. They know Spider-Man got dusted There's a shot in Avengers HQ with Bruce Banner (Mark Ruffalo) looking at two pictures and crying. The pictures are of Scott Lang and Peter Parker. Presumably this means the Avengers think they both got dusted. That makes sense for Scott, since he really did disappear at the time of the snap as he was in the Quantum Realm at the time. But they would have known Peter went to space with Tony Stark in pursuit of the Black Order. Of course, there's a pile of other questions this item inspires. Like: Could that scene happen after Tony is back on Earth? Do any of the other Avengers even know Spider-Man's secret identity? I guess Pepper or Happy could have told them, presuming they survived. Anyway, this is an interesting nugget, at least. 3. Clint Barton (aka Hawkeye) is now Ronin 4. The surviving Avengers on Earth have a plan 5. Scott Lang (aka Ant-Man) is out of the Quantum Realm Marvel Studios
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Just like 2018, Disney is going to be all over this year’s box office

2019 has just gotten started, and it's already looking like it could very well bring a box office as big as 2018. That's thanks in large part to Disney, which is sporting six -- yes, SIX -- films that could make a bid to earn over $1 billion worldwide this year. That's why the company dominates our predictions for the top 10 highest global grossing films of 2019, including the top five slots.

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