As the Academy Awards approach, the stark contrast between Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners,” which just made history with a record 16 nominations, and the completely shut-out of “Wicked: For Good” highlights a changing roadmap for navigating awards season.
Traditionally, studios park prestige contenders in November and December so they are top of mind when it is time for awards nominations. “Wicked: For Good” followed this playbook with a massive holiday debut. However, “Sinners,” which premiered all the way back in April, was ultimately able to overcome this time lag to capture the Academy’s overwhelming attention.
“Sinners” didn’t just spike on opening weekend; it built a compounding, word-of-mouth narrative. It reached its highest demand (nearly 150x the average movie) only after it became available on streaming, helping to extend its longevity far beyond its theatrical window.
This mirrors what we saw in 2022 with “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” which also successfully navigated a risky spring release. “Everything Everywhere All At Once” reached its peak demand only after winning the Oscar for Best Picture, nearly a year after it premiered. This late surge in audience attention translated directly into a revenue bump for streamers. We calculate that in the first quarter and second quarter of 2023, following its big win, “Everything Everywhere All At Once” delivered nearly $6 million in streaming subscriber revenue globally on platforms where it was available. For a movie like “Sinners,” awards season could act as the exact same catalyst, igniting another wave of incremental revenue.
A lack of Oscar nominations does not signify a failure for a massive IP property. With “Wicked: For Good,” the performance of the franchise ecosystem is more important than a single film’s awards haul. We’ve already measured that starting to play out. Our Streaming Economics model calculates that “The Wizard of Oz” generated an additional $2M in streaming revenue following the premiere of “Wicked.” This illustrates the complicated franchise calculus at play when a legacy title can drive incremental value without new production or marketing costs, effectively reducing the risk of the broader investment.
With high-profile contenders like “Sinners” and “Everything Everywhere All At Once,” we can see the autumn sprint to the Oscars is losing its monopoly. Whether a film is building year-long momentum like “Sinners” or activating a legacy catalog like “Wicked,” the real winners of awards season are the studios that understand how to de-risk their slates by turning a cultural footprint into a predictable financial asset.