The summer box office has gotten off to a red hot start. Thanks to “The Devil Wears Prada 2” and “Michael,” with an assist from “Mortal Kombat II” this past weekend, the May box office has reached $405 million through May 13, the second highest record in May up to this point in the past decade.
But get ready for that hot streak to start wearing off in the second half of the month. Currently, only two films on the remainder of the May slate are projected for an opening weekend of more than $10 million: the Memorial Day weekend release “The Mandalorian & Grogu” at $80 million-plus, followed by A24’s “The Backrooms” at around $20 million the weekend after.
And this weekend isn’t going to bring a big opening weekend either. The new offerings include Focus Features’ critically acclaimed TIFF horror acquisition “Obsession,” Amazon MGM’s pulpy revenge film “Is God Is,” and Black Bear’s Guy Ritchie action film “In the Grey” starring Jake Gyllenhaal and Henry Cavill.
“Obsession,” which is tipped to be the top newcomer of the weekend, might be able to beat box office projections of a $7-9 million start if word-of-mouth among opening night crowds is as strong as those who saw Curry Barker’s debut film at its Toronto midnight section premiere. But it isn’t expected to keep “The Devil Wears Prada 2” from holding on to the No. 1 spot, which would mean that, combined with “Mandalorian & Grogu,” Disney is on track to top the charts in every weekend of May.
But for theaters, a relatively slower Memorial Day period is one they will have to get through before the stronger numbers that have fueled optimism for the summer overall arrive. That starts in mid-June with Pixar’s “Toy Story 5,” and possibly earlier with the combined efforts of films like Amazon MGM’s “Masters of the Universe,” Paramount’s “Scary Movie” and Universal’s “Disclosure Day.”
It’s a trend that Daniel Loria, SVP and Editorial Director at Boxoffice, says he and theater owners have long been anticipating.
“I’ve been telling people for weeks that Memorial Day weekend doesn’t have the lineup to come close to matching what we saw last year,” he said. “For that matter, Thanksgiving weekend, which won’t have a Disney sequel or a ‘Wicked’ film, is also going to have a significant drop from recent years.”
Holdover help from “Michael” and “Prada 2” will help, but Memorial Day weekend will be far below the holiday record $330 million total recorded last year thanks to Disney’s “Lilo & Stitch” and Paramount’s final “Mission: Impossible” film. It may also slide below $200 million in overall grosses for the four-day period.
That will keep this May from being a $1 billion month, though the strong start should keep the final monthly total similar to last year’s $967 million. Pre-summer projections from one studio obtained by TheWrap that projected a $4.3 billion summer had May’s box office matching that of last year’s despite a softer Memorial Day weekend, followed by monthly totals of $940 million for June, $1.29 billion for July and $913 million for August, the last being the first $900 million-plus August in a decade.
Loria notes theaters have similar high expectations under the belief that the slower periods for this summer’s box office will have a higher floor than those of years past, allowing theaters to have fewer weeks where staffers get their hours cut.
“It’s about consistency. With the higher volume of films from weekend to weekend, the theaters know that the gaps in the calendar are better addressed,” he said. “We’re steering away from summers where there’s a few big opening weekends but followed by slower weeks where one film is doing two-thirds of overall business.”
