There have been many questions surrounding the future of the Marvel Cinematic Universe over the past three years. Has the once-invincible franchise lost its ability to make audiences embrace new superheroes? Has its interconnectivity become a liability rather than an asset? Can the next two “Avengers” films restore widespread goodwill, or have too many moviegoers permanently moved on?
But through all that uncertainty, one unshakable fact remains: the world loves Spider-Man. And based on the wild pre-release metrics for Sony/Marvel Studios’ “Spider-Man: Brand New Day,” the world really loves seeing Tom Holland play Spider-Man.
They love him so much that box office tracking points to “Brand New Day” earning an opening weekend that ranks among the top five highest of all time, with theatrical sources pointing to an opening higher than the $260 million domestic/$600 million global opening of “Spider-Man: No Way Home” in 2021. A mix of adoration for Holland’s Spider-Man, a marketing campaign that focuses on the personal instead of MCU cameos and positive reviews all set up for an absolutely massive launch.
It’s all the more impressive considering that “No Way Home” sourced much of its hype from the return of past Spider-Men Tobey Maguire and Andrew Garfield along with villains from their respective films like Willem Dafoe’s Green Goblin.
But there’s no tease of nostalgia fueling the pre-release buzz for “Brand New Day,” and while the new film has surprise MCU cameos and sets up future movies in the series, much of that has been kept out of Sony’s marketing material for Holland’s fourth “Spider-Man” film and his seventh go-around in the role since being introduced in “Captain America: Civil War” 10 years ago.
Instead, Sony has leaned into a simple but effective pitch: what is next for Holland’s Peter Parker after the ending of “No Way Home?” With his mentors Tony Stark and Aunt May dead and the rest of the world completely forgetting him, including his closest friends MJ and Ned, Peter is truly on his own as he struggles with whether he can or should try to reconnect with the people he lost — and what it means to be both himself and Spider-Man.
That pitch is selling unbelievably well.
Marvel may be struggling to get non-hardcore fans to embrace fresh additions to its universe like the New Avengers and the Fantastic Four, but as we have seen from “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” and “Deadpool & Wolverine,” new stories with heroes introduced during Marvel’s 2010s period of dominance are still big draws.
And over the last five years, as Marvel has dealt with real-life tragedies and scandals that have forced major creative overhauls, the gut-punch ending of “No Way Home” has endured for millions of moviegoers regardless of their feelings on what has become of the MCU. Since they first appeared onscreen together in “Spider-Man: Homecoming,” the chemistry between Holland, Zendaya and Jacob Batalon has made Peter, MJ and Ned into a team as beloved as the Avengers or the Guardians.
Now, after years of waiting, moviegoers finally get to see if Peter will be able to rebuild those relationships and find a new way forward. And if the critics are any indication, they will enjoy it. Reviewers have not been kind to the MCU during its current period of inconsistency, but “Brand New Day” has largely won them over with a superb 89% Rotten Tomatoes score at time of writing.
Considering that there’s yet to be an MCU film that has pleased critics but alienated audiences, that is a very good omen for “Brand New Day” as it prepares to power the box office through the final weeks of summer and perhaps even into September. But forecasting just how big this weekend will be is difficult because pre-release data has pushed “Brand New Day” into such rarified air that there’s very few past films to compare it to.
Officially, trackers are projecting an opening of $195 million domestic and $465 million worldwide, both of which would stand as the highest for any film since “Zootopia 2” last November. But theatrical sources told TheWrap that domestic presale and social media data have outperformed that of “Deadpool & Wolverine,” which opened to $211 million domestic and $444 million worldwide.
Combine that with a more family-friendly PG-13 rating compared to the R rating of “Deadpool,” the presence of Zendaya and “Stranger Things” alum Sadie Sink driving female turnout, and strong overseas presales even in China, which didn’t even get a theatrical release of “No Way Home,” and the sky is truly the limit on this film.
Just meeting the tracking benchmarks would make this film a huge hit for Sony. But if it manages to top the global opening of “No Way Home,” the lack of major releases throughout August should clear the path for “Brand New Day” to become the eighth film before inflation adjustment — and the first non-“Avengers” superhero film to cross the hallowed $2 billion mark.
