Fall TV Forecast: ABC Plays It Safe – Too Safe – With Hot Women, Dumb Dudes

“Suburgatory” looks like ABC’s best chance for a hit this fall

ABC's fall plans call for sexy, empowered women and threatened men. It's a simple, sitcommy worldview, and it unfortunately extends to its dramas. The lone show that breaks the pattern, the smart comedy "Suburgatory," also looks like ABC's best chance for a hit.

Welcome to the final installment in our five-part, network-by-network series on the new fall shows. ABC has perhaps the safest lineup of any network — at a time when it could have used more risks.

Also read: Fall TV Forecast: How NBC Can Break Into 3rd Without Breakout Hits

If ABC doesn't find fresh successes, this could be the season it loses its third-place ranking to NBC. NBC has two big guns — the NFL and midseason's "The Voice" — and even had surprisingly good ratings for one of the two new comedies it debuted Wednesday. (Last season, ABC narrowly beat NBC for third place in the 18-49 race, averaging a 2.5 rating/7 share for the season vs. a 2.3/6.)

Besides "Suburgatory," the only ABC shows that look like potential breakouts are the drama "Revenge" and sitcom "Last Man Standing." The latter will only succeed if enough viewers care about Tim Allen's return to TV.

Here's our look at ABC's shows:

CHARLIE'S ANGELS/PAN AM

ABC has two female-centric dramas trying to have it both ways. Men and women alike are supposed to ogle their sexy outfits, even as we respect the characters for how brave and empowered they are.

In other words, the actresses act very serious to pretend they aren't wearing silly clothes. They're in a bad situation, and everyone tuning in will know it. You can already feel the condescension at the shows' attempts at condescension.

Also read: Bunnies and Stewardesses: Fall TV's Racy Slant

The "Charlie's Angels" movies — okay, the first one — at least had a sense of humor about the cheesy outfits. Each new one was like an inside joke between movie and viewer. People who tune in expecting anything fun to happen will be quickly let down.

"Pan Am" has a cool look, at least, even if it's purloined from "Catch Me if You Can." It shares a time period with "Mad Men," but "Mad Men" has far stronger characters. (And would never survive on a network.)

"Charlie's Angels" may have one thing going for it — it's the only action/drama show in its timeslot, 8 p.m. Thursdays. But it faces solid NBC and CBS comedies and Fox's much-hyped "X Factor." It may also compete for young, female viewers with CW's most successful show, "The Vampire Diaries."

"Pan Am" gets Sunday night at 10, and faces football on NBC. Not an enviable place to be.

ONCE UPON A TIME

ABC's other show for fans of costumery kicks off Sundays at 8, where it also faces football. At least it offers a clear choice. The show, about a town where real life and fairy tales collide, is a confusing place with a sword-wielding Snow White and a likeable female bail bondswoman. But it just seems too complicated to hit.

REVENGE

The most promising of ABC's dramas finds a young woman trying to avenge the death of her father in the Hamptons. It has a pulpy appeal and sophisticated sheen, always a fun combination. Its also gorgeous, between the setting and the glamorous clothes. 

"Brothers & Sisters" star Emily VanCamp doesn't look dangerous as the vengeance-minded heroine, and that should be part of the fun. Madeleine Stowe seems to be enjoying herself as well as the icy nemesis.

The show also can't help but seem fresh against its aged competition Wednesdays at 10: "Law & Order: SVU" and "CSI" on NBC. Both dramas are undergoing their latest casting reshuffles.

LAST MAN STANDING/MAN UP

At ABC, Tuesdays at 8 belong to guys — the kinds of guys who feel themselves to be in constant competition with their wives, if not oppressed by them. ABC hopes the success of the shows will help it launch a Tuesday block, and that these are the men for the job.

"Man Up" feels a little sharper, but "Last Man Standing" has Tim Allen, who will have a hit if he can still pull a chunk of his "Home Improvement" audience.

His show won't succeed on its concept alone, which is basically this: The man of the house is surrounded by women and an insufficiently macho son. The women want to drive his big manly truck. One of his daughters cries over "Glee." 

Fox's "Glee" happens to be one of the girlie shows that ABC's manly man hour faces on Tuesday nights, along with CW's "90210." The other competition includes CBS's proven "NCIS" and NBC's reliable "Biggest Loser."

"Man Up" has better jokes and an ensemble of demeaned men to share them. The best: a guy talks his wife into let him play video games all night by asking if she wants to have sex.

SUBURGATORY

A mix of breezy social commentary and family disasters makes "Suburgatory" a logical bridge between ABC's "The Middle" and "Modern Family," the two shows it sits between on Wednesday nights at 8:30.

It faces "X Factor" and CBS's "Survivor," but those turned off by big reality competitions will have to choose between this, CW's "H8R" (which debuted to low ratings Wednesday), and NBC's "Free Agents," which had a small sample audience in its first airing after its lead-in, "Up All Night," performed well.

With a cast including Jeremy Sisto, Cheryl Hines and Ana Gasteyer, "Suburgatory" has a good chance of vanguishing "Free Agents." (I say this as someone who liked "Free Agents" and thinks it deserves a shot.) "Suburgatory" just seems more accessible.

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