Movie theaters on Florida’s Atlantic coast are getting ready to shut down Thursday as Hurricane Matthew prepares to make landfall.
And with their Friday status remaining uncertain, that might cause this weekend’s box office to take a dip, which would be bad news for the projected number one movie, Universal’s “The Girl on the Train.”
There’s only so much rabid film fans can do when the theater is closed. Neither snow nor rain nor heat nor gloom of night usually keeps people from going to the movies as long as it’s physically possible to get there, but they can’t control the forces of nature. So while Matthew is forcing cinemas to close for now, don’t expect people to stay away for long, even if they need to paddle their way to the concession line.
Jeff Bock, senior analyst at Exhibitor Relations, said that other than blizzards or similar extreme weather events that physically prevent people from getting to the movies, ordinary bad weather isn’t much of a box office deterrent.
“Outside of some blizzards on the weekends, weather has very little effect on the box office,” he told TheWrap.
After all, a climate-controlled cinema is the perfect tonic for both a sweltering summer day and a teeth-chattering winter night. And when the sky is opening up and 100-mph winds test the structural integrity of every building, it’s natural to want to get lost in the magic of Hollywood. History appears to prove that out — the box office declined the weekend affected by several notable recent storms, but quickly rebounded, proving movies aren’t just recession-proof — but also waterproof.
Hurricane Sandy, which started bearing down on New York City on Oct. 28, 2012, was one of the few non-snowstorm weather events that appeared to have a material impact on the box office. New York theaters started shutting down by mid-afternoon on the 28th, a Sunday, and BoxOfficeMojo estimated the storm, which flooded subway lines and plunged half of Manhattan into darkness, might have kept business down by as much as 10 percent.
That weekend, four new nationwide releases all underperformed, and the box office fell 28 percent from the previous weekend. “Argo,” a film that had come out two weeks prior, ended up as the weekend’s box office champ. The following week, the box office jumped 48 percent as “Wreck-It Ralph” and “Flight” claimed the top two spots.
In January, Winter Storm Jonas temporarily closed theaters across the mid-Atlantic seaboard, which may have directly contributed to a 15 percent decline at the weekend box office, Patrick Corcoran, vice president of communications at the National Association of Theater Owners, told TheWrap in June.
That shows up in the box office totals from the weekend of Jan. 22, which was when the storm hit. The box office was down 32 percent from the previous weekend and 23 percent from the following weekend, as another holdover, “The Revenant,” took the top spot.
Granted, “Kung Fu Panda 3” came out on Jan. 29 and was always going to open bigger than the three Jan. 22 debutants: “Dirty Grandpa,” “The Boy” and “The 5th Wave,” but the weekend’s blizzard, which dumped up to three feet of snow in parts of the Northeast, made a night at the movies a much more difficult undertaking.
On Monday, Florida Gov. Rick Scott warned that Hurricane Matthew could be the most destructive storm to hit Florida since 1992’s Hurricane Andrew, which was the costliest storm in American history at the time — and which caused more than one-weekend blip on the box office.
Andrew made landfall on Monday, Aug. 24, dumping nearly 14 inches of rain on metro Miami. And as millions of Floridians and others in the path of the storm boarded up their windows and stocked up on nonperishables, the box office for the weekend immediately preceding the storm dropped 27 percent from the prior weekend. It fell another 5 percent the week after, as local residents began to grapple with the $26 billion in damage the storm caused.
But for those seeking an escape from waterlogged and ravaged storm-affected regions, theaters that were still open could certainly offer that. The No. 1 movie the weekend after Andrew? “Honeymoon in Vegas.”
25 Fall Movies We're Dying to See: From 'The Birth of a Nation' to 'Rogue One' (Photos)
Fall Preview 2016: TheWrap picks the movies you need to see before the year's end, from superhero films to critically acclaimed indies.
"The Light Between Oceans" Cast: Michael Fassbender, Alicia Vikander, Rachel Weisz Director: Derek Cianfrance Release Date: Sept. 2 What it's about: A lighthouse keeper (Fassbender) and his wife (Vikander) rescue a baby girl who washes up in a rowboat and unofficially adopt her. When the girl grows older, an encounter with a certain woman on the mainland threatens to break up their happy life. Why we're dying to see it: This is the movie that started the real-life Fassbender-Vikander romance. We have to see the chemistry that unfolds between them on screen.
DreamWorks
"The Magnificent Seven" Director: Antoine Fuqua Cast: Denzel Washington, Chris Pratt, Ethan Hawke Release Date: Sept. 23 What it's about: A remake of the classic Western about seven outlaws as they help a town under siege by an industrialist villain. Why we're dying to see it: It's an A-list remake that showcases some good diversity. Plus Antoine Fuqua directed "Training Day," in which Denzel Washington won an Academy Award for Best Actor.
Columbia Pictures
"Queen of Katwe" Director: Mira Nair Cast: Lupita Nyong'o, David Oyelowo, Madina Nalwanga Release Date: Sept. 23 What it's about: A biographical drama about Phiona Mutesi, a Ugandan chess prodigy who earned Woman Candidate Master at the World Chess Olympiads. Why we're dying to see it: It's an untold story of a Ugandan chess player who grew up in the slum of Katwe. Rarely do we get to see feel-good stories about Africa on the big screen.
Walt Disney Pictures
"The Girl on the Train" Cast: Emily Blunt, Rebecca Ferguson, Haley Bennett Director: Tate Taylor Release Date: Oct. 7 What it's about: The story follows a recently divorced woman (Blunt) who fantasizes during her daily commute about the seemingly perfect couple who live in a house that her train passes every day, until she sees something shocking and becomes entangled in a mystery. Why we're dying to see it: It's based on Paula Hawkins' best-selling novel and has the same feel as "Gone Girl."
Universal Pictures
"The Birth of a Nation" Cast: Nate Parker, Armie Hammer, Mark Boone Junior, Gabrielle Union Director: Nate Parker Release Date: Oct. 7 What it's about: Parker stars as the 19th-century slave Nat Turner, who was taught to read the Bible to preach to fellow slaves but wound up leading a famous rebellion in 1831. Why we're dying to see it: Parker's directorial debut was phenomenon at Sundance, where it was bought for a festival-record $17.5 million.
Fox Searchlight Pictures
"Kevin Hart: What Now?" Cast: Kevin Hart Director: Leslie Small Release Date: Oct. 14 What it's about: A stand-up comedy film that features his performance from the recently concluded "What Now?" tour. Why we're dying to see it: It's been five long years since his last stand-up film, "Laugh at My Pain."
Universal Pictures
"A Monster Calls" Cast: Liam Neeson, Sigourney Weaver, Felicity Jones Director: J.A. Bayona Release Date: Oct. 21 What it's about: A young boy deals with a terminally ill mother and bullies at school with the help of an ancient monster tree (voiced by Liam Neeson). Why we're dying to see it: Patrick Ness' fantastical children's novel, based on an idea from a woman with terminal cancer, was adapted for the screen by Ness himself.
Focus Features
"Doctor Strange" Cast:Rachel McAdams, Benedict Cumberbatch, Benedict Wong, Mads Mikkelson, Tilda Swinton Director: Scott Derrickson Release Date: Nov. 4 What it's about: Dr. Stephen Strange (Cumberbatch) is an egotistical but brilliant surgeon whose career is destroyed after a car accident ruins his hands. Searching the globe to repair them, he encounters the Ancient One (Swinton), a sorcerer who trains Strange to defend the world from evil. Why we’re excited to see it: Doctor Strange is one of Marvel’s more eccentric (and lesser known) heroes and the trailers have promised plenty some seriously trippy, magical mayhem.
Walt Disney Studios
“Hacksaw Ridge” Cast:Andrew Garfield, Sam Worthington, Vince Vaughn, Teresa Palmer Director:Mel Gibson Release Date: Nov. 4 What it’s about: It's based on the true story of U.S. Army medic Desmond T. Doss (Garfield) during World War II. Doss refused to kill anybody or bear arms, becoming the first conscientious objector to receive the Medal of Honor from President Harry Truman. Why we’re excited to see it: The story sounds fascinating, and this is Mel Gibson’s first film as a director since 2006’s “Apocalypto.”
Summit Entertainment
"Loving" Cast: Joel Edgerton, Ruth Negga, Nick Kroll Director: Jeff Nichols Release Date: Nov. 4 What it's about: An interracial couple wages a legal fight against imprisonment in the mid-20th-century South, leading to the landmark 1967 Supreme Court decision Loving v. Virginia. Why we're dying to see it: The film has been building buzz since its debut at Cannes, particularly for co-star Ruth Negga.
Focus Features
"All Eyez on Me" Cast: Demetrius Shipp Jr. Danai Gurira, Lauren Cohan Director: Benny Boom Release Date: Nov. 11 What it's about: A biopic on Tupac Shaku's rise to fame all the way to his death during a drive-by in Las Vegas. Why we're dying to see it: Tupac has had multiple films made about his life, but the last one worth watching ("Tupac: Resurrection") was released 13 years ago. Plus, Tupac.
Open Road Films
"Arrival" Cast: Amy Adams, Jeremy Renner, Forest Whitaker Director: Denis Villeneuve Release Date: Nov. 16 What it's about: After alien spacecrafts descend on Earth, a linguist (Adams) is hired by the U.S. government to investigate them. Why we're dying to see it: The film has a strong pedigree, Adams has been nominated for five Oscars and the director's last film, "Sicario," received three Oscar nominations.
Paramount Pictures
"Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk" Cast: Kristen Stewart, Chris Tucker, Vin Diesel, Garrett Hedlund Director: Ang Lee Release Date: Nov. 11 What it's about: Based on a novel of the same name, the film follows an Iraq war hero whose victory tour back in the U.S. is interrupted by jarring flashbacks. Why we're dying to see it: Great source material, and Ang Lee's first film since another eye-catching literary adaptation, "The Life of Pi."
TriStar Pictures
“Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them” Cast:Eddie Redmayne, Ezra Miller, Colin Farrell Director: David Yates Release Date: Nov. 18 What it’s about: Before Harry Potter even existed, there was Newt Scamander (Redmayne). The wizard -- and future author of a textbook mainstay at Hogwarts — visits the Magical Congress of the United States in 1926, but loses control of a special briefcase containing a number of dangerous beasts. Why we’re excited to see it:J.K. Rowling. Wizards. Eddie Redmayne.
“Nocturnal Animals” Cast:Jake Gyllenhaal, Amy Adams, Isla Fisher, Armie Hammer Director:Tom Ford Release Date: Nov. 18 What it’s about: In an adaptation of Austin Wright's 1933 novel “Tony and Susan,” Adams stars as an art gallery owner who begins receiving the manuscript of her ex-husband’s violent thriller novel. As Susan reads more of the story, she begins to interpret it as a threat. Why we’re excited to see it: This will be fashion designer Tom Ford’s second directorial feature, following 2009’s “A Single Man.” The dynamic cast is sure to make this thriller a memorable one.
Focus Features
"Manchester by the Sea" Cast:Casey Affleck, Michelle Williams, Kyle Chandler, Lucas Hedge Director: Kenneth Lonergan Release Date: Nov. 18 What it’s about: An uncle (Affleck) must take care of his teenage nephew (Hedge) and return to his hometown after the death of the boy’s father. Why we’re excited to see it: The film received high praise when it premiered at Sundance and Lucas Hedge delivers a breakout performance as the nephew, Patrick.
Amazon Studios
"Moana" Cast:Dwayne Johnson, Auli’i Cravalho, Phillipa Soo Director: Ron Clements, John Musker Release Date: Nov. 23 What it’s about: A young woman, Moana (Cravalho), sets sail for a fabled island and is joined by demigod Maui (Johnson) along the way. Why we’re excited to see it: The animated musical is Disney’s first story about a Polynesian princess and will feature original music by “Hamilton” creator Lin-Manuel Miranda. Plus, the Rock sings!
"La La Land" Cast:Emma Stone, Ryan Gosling, J.K. Simmons, Finn Wittrock Director: Damien Chazelle Release Date: Dec. 2 What it’s about: Stone and Gosling star as an aspiring actress and a jazz pianist, respectively, in modern-day L.A. The two meet and soon fall in love, but as each begins to find success in their dream careers, their relationship threatens to tear apart. Why we’re excited to see it: We’ve already seen the chemistry between Stone and Gosling in “Crazy, Stupid, Love” and “Gangster Squad,” so we can’t wait to see what happens with the two of them when dancing and music are added in this romantic comedy-drama musical.
"Fences" Director: Denzel Washington Cast: Denzel Washington, Viola Davis, Jovan Adepo Release Date: Dec. 16 What's it about: A once-promising baseball player ends up working as a garbageman in 1950s Pittsburgh. Why we're dying to see it: August Wilson's Pulitzer Prize winning play with two amazing actors -- who won Tonys in 2010 for playing these very roles on Broadway.
20th Century Fox
"Rogue One: A Star Wars Story" Cast:Felicity Jones, Diego Luna, Riz Ahmed, Mads Mikkelsen Director: Gareth Edwards Release Date: Dec. 16 What it’s about: Essentially a prequel to “Star Wars: A New Hope,” the film follows a group of Rebel spies as they attempt to steal plans for the Death Star. Why we’re excited to see it: Not only is it the first standalone film in the "Star Wars" franchise, but the trailer promises a badass female lead and plenty of fight scenes.
Lucasfilm
"Collateral Beauty" Cast:Will Smith, Keira Knightley, Helen Mirren, Kate Winslet, Edward Norton Director: David Frankel Release Date: Dec. 16 What it’s about: An advertising executive in New York faces a downward spiral after a tragic event, prompting his colleagues to seek a plan to get him out his funk. Why we’re excited to see it: “The Devil Wears Prada” director returns to New York City with an all-star cast.
Getty Images
"The Founder" Cast:Michael Keaton, Laura Dern, Nick Offerman, John Carroll Lynch Director: John Lee Hancock Release Date: Dec. 16 What it’s about: The biographical film follows Ray Kroc (Keaton) meeting Mac and Dick McDonald and developing the first McDonald’s franchise. Why we’re excited to see it: Aren’t you curious to hear how McDonald’s started? And Keaton could be back in the Oscar race for the third straight year.
"Passengers" Cast:Jennifer Lawrence, Chris Pratt, Michael Sheen, Laurence Fishburne Director: Morten Tyldum Release Date: Dec. 21 What it’s about: Lawrence and Pratt play two passengers aboard a spacecraft that’s on a 120-year journey to a distant planet. Due to a malfunction, two passengers are prematurely woken up with 90 years left to go on the voyage. Why we’re excited to see it: Two of Hollywood's biggest stars team for a sci-fi romance that seemed very promising from the first footage shown at CinemaCon in April.
Getty Images
"Why Him?" Cast:James Franco, Zoey Deutch, Bryan Cranston, Keegan-Michael Key, Adam DeVine, Megan Mullally Director: John Hamburg Release Date: Dec. 25 What it’s about: A father (Cranston) meets his daughter’s wealthy and eccentric boyfriend (Franco) and immediately dislikes him -- and resists all of Franco's attempts to win him over. Why we’re excited to see it: Cranston and Franco seem like the perfect oddball pairing-- plus it's great to see them both in a comdy.
20th Century Fox
"Toni Erdmann" Cast: Peter Simonischek, Sandra Hüller, Michael Wittenborn Director: Maren Ade Release Date: Dec. 25 What it’s about: An older father (Simonischek) tries to reconnect with his adult daughter (Hüller) by playing pranks on her. Why we’re excited to see it: The comedic film, a hit at Cannes, boasts a 91 percent rating on Rotten Tomatoes. TheWrap’s Steve Pond described it as a “hysterically funny but deeply touching father-daughter story that ... doesn’t waste a moment.”
1 of 26
Fall Movie Preview 2016: TheWrap picks the films you need to see before year’s end
Fall Preview 2016: TheWrap picks the movies you need to see before the year's end, from superhero films to critically acclaimed indies.
DreamWorks
