Thanks to a combination of a strong opening from Disney/Lucasfilm’s “The Mandalorian and Grogu” and great holds from other May releases, most notably Focus’ indie horror smash hit “Obsession,” the Memorial Day weekend box office is set to clear $200 million in overall 4-day grosses.
Industry estimates have “The Mandalorian and Grogu” earning a $100 million 4-day opening after it made $33 million on its opening day, with Disney’s projections slightly lower at $91-96 million. That hits the top end of pre-release projections and is a few steps below the $103 million 4-day opening of “Solo: A Star Wars Story” in 2018.
Reception for the film has largely been positive with an A- on CinemaScore — the same grade as all three “Star Wars” prequels — and Rotten Tomatoes scores of 63% critics and 88% audience.
As we noted in our preview, this result is well below the track record “Star Wars” has established for itself over several decades, though “Mandalorian and Grogu” can still post a theatrical profit against its $165 million production budget depending on how the next several weeks play out.
From there, merch and other ancillary revenue should make the film a very profitable one for Disney, including in its theme parks, where a relaunch of Disneyland and Disney Hollywood Studios’ “Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge” sections has been timed to the release of the film, complete with a “Mandalorian”-themed overhaul of the Millennium Falcon simulator “Smuggler’s Run.”
Meanwhile, “Obsession” heads into Memorial Day weekend having turned its excellent word-of-mouth into extremely strong weekday holds, including a rare instance of a Wednesday-to-Thursday increase.
With horror fans pouring in to see Inde Navarrette’s go-for-broke performance as a woman forced by a selfish wish to be disturbingly in love with her friend, industry estimates have the film making $23 million over the 4-day period, including a $19.9 million 3-day total that is a 16% increase from its opening weekend.
Acquired at TIFF by Focus for $15 million, “Obsession” is on pace to earn $55 million domestically through Monday, and depending on how well it holds against A24’s upcoming horror film “Backrooms,” it is on pace to earn $100 million-plus in North America.
Among other holdovers, Lionsgate’s “Michael” will pass $300 million domestic as it adds $23.5 million this holiday weekend, bringing its total to $317 million. Disney/20th Century’s “The Devil Wears Prada 2” is approaching $200 million domestic as it adds $14.8 million over four days, while Amazon MGM’s “The Sheep Detectives” tries to salvage its theatrical run with its strong word-of-mouth, adding an estimated $10 million for a $45 million domestic total through Monday.
