After previously declaring YouTube as the “new king of all media,” MoffettNathanson says the Google-owned video platform is now the world’s largest media company.
On Monday, the firm put out a new analysis noting that YouTube’s $62 billion in revenue during parent company Alphabet’s fourth quarter slightly exceeded Disney’s media revenues of $60.9 billion. That figure excludes Disney’s experiences division.
It now estimates that the Google-owned video platform is worth between $500 billion and $560 billion, based on a multiple of 8 to 9 times the company’s 2025 revenue.
“Over the next few years, unlike almost any other asset we cover, we strongly believe that YouTube will be a major beneficiary of both the structural tailwinds and headwinds facing technology and media companies,” the firm wrote. “In a world filled with business model concerns, YouTube’s global scale and innovative offerings create an uncommonly high moat.”
MoffettNathanson expects that the continued development of generative AI will help YouTube creators produce more impactful content that will be better targeted and monetized.
It also said that YouTube TV’s embrace of skinnier bundles and à la carte streaming channels will deliver value to consumers looking to find a more economical way to watch premium content. Additionally, it anticipates that YouTube’s music service will benefit from increasing engagement, pricing power and margin leverage.
In its latest quarter, Alphabet said that YouTube has over 325 million paid subscriptions led by Google One and YouTube Premium. MoffettNathanson estimates that the total subscriber base sits at 334 million, with 180 million of the total coming from Google One and 143 million coming from YouTube Premium. Additionally, it estimates that YouTube TV has over 10 million subscribers, while YouTube’s Primetime Channels has about 1 million for its standalone Sunday Ticket offering.
Looking ahead, MoffettNathanson expects YouTube’s subscription revenue growth to continue to outpace advertising.
The firm noted that YouTube’s new $7.99 per month, ad-reduced tier for YouTube Premium and Music will support a “higher forward growth trajectory” than previously estimated. It also said YouTube TV’s new skinny bundles will save subscribers between $5 to $8 per month and will broaden the service’s addressable market and drive stronger subscriber adds for YouTube TV than previously anticipated.
“We now anticipate slightly faster subscription revenue growth in 2027 and 2028 than previously penciled in,” the firm concluded. “All together, we forecast YouTube’s total revenue growth to settle in the low double-digit range from 2026 through 2028.”
