”If it works, the world will change,“ analyst Rich Greenfield tells TheWrap about Universal’s direct-to-consumer release of ”Trolls World Tour“
As the world changes rapidly under the specter of a global pandemic, the decision by Universal Studios to obliterate the traditional window between a theatrical and video-on-demand home release with next month’s “Trolls World Tour” is another sign of a business shift that may have lasting consequences.
Could this mark the end of traditional distribution in movie theaters? With 4,000-plus movie theaters closed to the public nationwide and people shut in at home, the decision to release a family-friendly film through online streaming partners may seem logical. But many observers see the move — announced initially as a day-and-date simultaneous release at home and in theaters — as a significant step toward ending exclusive windows for theaters, a battle that exhibitors have fought for nearly a decade.
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Tuna Amobi, an analyst at CFRA Research, called Universal’s move “somewhat unexpected and quite significant for the industry” and said it could become “an unintended catalyst for potentially lasting disruption of the theatrical distribution window.”
One Hollywood producer who declined to be named said it signaled a major shift in studio thinking. “It’s not the end, but possibly the beginning of the end for most movies other than mega budget spectacles,” the producer said.
Also Read: Movie Theater Industry Will Rebound After Coronavirus Subsides, NATO Assures
Still, many analysts said it would be risky for studios to shift away from exhibition entirely just yet. Smaller non-tentpole films should be evaluated on a case-by-case basis if the economics make sense, insiders said, noting that the future of the industry may change if those titles do work financially.
Four years ago, Sean Parker proposed The Screening Room, a service to allow consumers to stream new movies at home for $50 on the same day they opened in theaters. While Parker received support from several studios and producers like Steven Spielberg, exhibitors dug in their heels around their exclusive release windows and the venture never got off the ground.
But the coronavirus pandemic has changed the dynamic. In addition to Universal’s decision to pivot away from theatrical with “Trolls,” the studio will also make “The Invisible Man,” “The Hunt,” and Focus Features’ “Emma” — three movies still in theaters last weekend — available via on-demand services as early as this Friday, far quicker than they would ordinarily appear. The 48-hour rentals are pricier than most VOD titles — $19.99 — which could produce more revenues to make up for the lost box office from their virus-shortened theatrical runs.
“For us, we are giving some optionality right now,” a Universal insider said. “When you can’t go to the theater, you can watch at home with your families. Same for ‘Invisible Man’ — we still want you to be able to see that movie.”
The insider said that NBCUniversal CEO Jeff Shell made the decision with his top leadership, including studio chief Donna Langley, distribution chief Pete Levinsohn and others at a marathon meeting on Friday. “This came together super quickly, with Jeff coming in and talking to the team: How is anyone going to see ‘Trolls’? That’s where the discussion started,” this individual said. “Then — wait — what about these other films in theaters?”
Also Read: Coronavirus Could Sink 2020 Box Office to Below $8 Billion for First Time in 20 Years
However, Greenfield said that a video-on-demand approach for most studio films could prove challenging since box office revenues will be hard to replace, especially for big-budget tentpole films. According to his analysis, the average billion-dollar-grossing film gives the studio a $375 million profit, but VOD could not generate that type of revenue (or profit). The most profitable PPV event in U.S. history was the Mayweather-Pacquaio fight in 2015, which grossed $400 million from 4.4 million buys, charged at $90 per buy. It’s hard to imagine moviegoers even paying $30-$40 for a new release every month, especially when services like Amazon, Netflix and Amazon Prime Video don’t charge extra for big starry titles.
LightShed Partners Estimates
For that reason, Universal decided to delay for nearly a year the release of the “Fast & Furious” sequel “F9,” which has the potential to gross over $1 billion at the worldwide box office. And MGM moved the upcoming Bond installment, “No Time to Die,” to November. Most recently, Disney shifted Marvel’s “Black Widow” back. With films that have potential to gross ten figures in ticket sales, delaying is a safer option than shifting to VOD.
“Even with the entire U.S. movie exhibition shutting down, we would not expect any major film studio to embrace (direct to consumer) release models for blockbuster films,” Greenfield said, noting that delay is typically the safest option given studios’ profit projections as well as talent contracts with backend deals “that never anticipated a direct-to-consumer release strategy.”
Shawn Robbins, chief analyst at Box Office Media, noted that Universal’s decision to delay a mega title like “F9” reflected that long-term view of the importance of theatrical releases. “We’re simply not going to see a flood of major releases like ‘Black Widow,’ ‘F9,’ ‘A Quiet Place Part II’ or ‘Mulan’ suddenly opt for in-home releases,” Robbins said. “It wouldn’t make sense for studios to go in that direction.”
B. Riley FBR analyst Eric Wold wrote in a memo: “We continue to believe that this is not a strategy that can be financially successful for most big-budget, high-profile titles — and would expect this move (and possibly others) to be very unique to the near-term outlook and not one that would linger into the second half of 2020 or 2021 as the theaters reopen to the world.”
Also Read: 'Black Widow' Pushed Back by Disney Due to Coronavirus
But that doesn’t mean straight-to-streaming isn’t an option for smaller films.
“For a movie like ‘Trolls,’ ‘Emma,’ ‘The Invisible Man,’ ‘The Hunt,’ you may be able to, but not for ‘Bond’ and ‘F9,’ and just achieve the same level of profitability,” Greenfield explained. “It’s important to remember while we don’t believe you can effectively do this with a billion dollar movie — there were only nine movies that did a billion dollars in 2019 — for a lot of other movies, this may make a lot of sense.”
However, in his article titled “Would You Rent a New Movie for $20? Universal Leads Film Biz Into the Future,” Greenfield said that while PVOD can work as a one-off, studios may struggle to maintain the approach over time given that consumers may be reluctant to spend $20 to rent a brand-new studio film “when there is a new movie on Netflix every single week at no additional cost.” He added,
The studio insider noted that for now, decisions were only made about “Invisible Man,” “The Hunt” and “Trolls.” “It feels like a temporary situation because of the unprecedented times we’re in, but I wouldn’t venture a guess beyond that. Being in the room, the only decisions made were about these films. No one is looking at June.”
However, some Hollywood studios have already followed Universal’s move. Warner Bros. took a baby step, deciding to release “Birds of Prey” into home entertainment two weeks earlier than the normal 10-week window. STX is also shortening the home entertainment window for Guy Ritchie’s “The Gentlemen.”
Also Read: Coronavirus: The Canceled Events in Tech, Media, Politics and Entertainment (Updating)
Even the National Association of Theatre Owners is taking the shortening of theatrical windows in stride given the unprecedented circumstances. “While one or two releases may forgo theatrical release, it is our understanding from discussions with distributors that the vast majority of deferred releases will be rescheduled for theatrical release as life returns to normal,” NATO said in a statement on Tuesday.
And industry veterans agree that movie theaters will rebound. “Not only will theaters recover, but we could reasonably see a spike in demand when life returns to normal,” Robbins said. “This is a unique situation, but history has shown that theaters bounce back after troubling economic times as an affordable source of escapism. People will be eager to break that cabin fever when the opportunity arrives, and studios and exhibition will be there to deliver it.”
But Greenfield added that these developments could also lead to a long-overdue reevaluation of the current theatrical release windows. “Waiting 90 days (for VOD) is absurd in 2020. It’s an antiquated absurdity that no one understands, especially millennials or Gen Z’s,” he said. “Hopefully this sends a new norm for blockbusters that you can watch movies whenever you want.”
Sharon Waxman and Umberto Gonzalez contributed to this article.
All the Movies Suspended or Delayed Due to Coronavirus Pandemic (Updating)
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Disney/MGM/Warner Bros.As the coronavirus continues to spread, an increasing number of movies are delaying or suspending production. As the number of impacted movies grows, TheWrap felt it would be most informative to keep a running list.
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Photo credit: Universal"No Time to Die"
MGM, Universal and Bond producers Michael G Wilson and Barbara Broccoli announced that after careful consideration and thorough evaluation of the global theatrical marketplace, the release of "No Time to Die" will be postponed until November 2020.
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Photo credit: Paramount
"A Quiet Place Part II"
Director John Krasinski announced on Instagram that the horror sequel's March theatrical release would be delayed amid the growing spread of the coronavirus around the globe. Paramount has now dated the film for release on Sept. 4.
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Photo credit: Sony
“Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway”
"Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway" was one of the first films delayed as part of the coronavirus, with Sony pushing its late March release to Aug. 7. But as the shutdowns continued, Sony juggled its release slate so that the family film will now open Jan. 15, 2021.
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Photo credit: Universal
"Fast and Furious 9"
The release of the next “Fast & Furious” installment, “F9,” has been delayed from May 22 to now opening on April 2, 2021.
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Paramount/Netflix
"The Lovebirds"
Paramount postponed the April 3 theatrical release of the romantic comedy “The Lovebirds" starring Issa Rae and Kumail Nanjiani after its SXSW premiere was also canceled. Netflix then acquired the film from Paramount and debuted it on May 22.
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Photo credit: Paramount
"Blue Story"
Paramount postponed the theatrical release UK gang film "Blue Story," which was set to open on March 20. The film then premiered on digital on May 5.
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Strand Releasing
"The Artist's Wife"
Strand Releasing and Water's End Productions delayed the limited release of the Bruce Dern and Lena Olin film "The Artist's Wife." The film was meant to open in New York on April 3 in Los Angeles on April 10 and in San Francisco on April 17. No new release date has been set.
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IFC Films
"The Truth"
Hirokazu Kore-eda's film "The Truth" from IFC Films will postpone its March 20 domestic release to now open at an unspecified date in summer 2020. The film is in both French and English starring Catherine Deneuve, Juliette Binoche and Ethan Hawke and has already opened in some overseas markets. IFC Films has set a new release date for July 3.
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Disney
"Mulan"
Disney postponed the release of its blockbuster, live-action remake of the animated film "Mulan" from March 27 to now open on July 24. The shift was part of a big shuffle of films Disney made to its release calendar on April 3.
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20th Century Studios
"The New Mutants"
After numerous delays, 20th Century's X-Men spinoff "The New Mutants" was also pushed back by Disney "out of an abundance of caution." The film from director Josh Boone was meant to open April 3. The film will now open Aug. 28, 2020.
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Searchlight Pictures
"Antlers"
"Antlers," an indie horror film from director Scott Cooper starring Keri Russell, was also pushed back by Disney and Searchlight Pictures from its April 17 release. No new release date has been set.
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Marvel
"Black Widow" and the MCU
In a restructuring of its entire release calendar, Disney pushed back every Marvel movie in the cinematic universe. "Black Widow" was meant to open on May 1, but will now shift back to the slot previously occupied by "The Eternals" on Nov. 6.“Eternals” is moving to February 12, 2021, “Shang-Chi and The Legend of the Ten Rings” will open May 7, 2021, and “Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness” is shifting to Nov. 5, 2021. The changes also affected Marvel's slate for 2022 with “Thor: Love and Thunder” opening Feb. 18, 2022, “Black Panther 2” shifting to May 8, 2022, and “Captain Marvel 2,” which was not previously dated, is now set for a July 8, 2022 release.
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Untitled Elvis Movie
Baz Luhrmann's Elvis Presley biopic starring Austin Butler ceased production in Australia after co-star Tom Hanks (playing Presley manager Col. Parker) and his wife, Rita Wilson, tested positive for COVID-19. The planned release date was also bumped back one month to now open Nov. 5, 2021.
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Paramount Pictures
"Mission: Impossible 7 and 8"
In late February, Paramount's action sequel halted production in Italy on the Tom Cruise action sequel. Paramount on April 24 also bumped the release dates of both films, with "M:I 7" moving to November 19, 2021 from its July 2021 release date, and the eighth film also moving back to Nov. 4, 2022 from its summer release.
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"The Nightingale"
Sony postponed the Budapest shoot of the drama starring real-life sisters Dakota and Elle Fanning.
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"Birds of Paradise"
Amazon Studios halted production in Budapest on director Sarah Adina Smith's ballet drama.
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Universal Pictures
"Jurassic World: Dominion"
Universal put a pause on production on the third "Jurassic World" in March after four weeks of shooting had been completed in the UK for a 20-week shoot. Production will resume on July 6, and the film is expected to be released on June 11, 2021.
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"Flint Strong"
Universal also halted production on this boxing biopic starring Ice Cube and Ryan Destiny.
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"Man From Toronto"
Sony delayed the start of production on the action comedy starring Kevin Hart and Woody Harrelson (who stepped in to replace Jason Statham).
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"Official Competition"
Spanish studio Mediapro suspended production on the new comedy starring Penélope Cruz and Antonio Banderas.
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Warner Bros.
"The Batman"
On March 14, Warner Bros. halted the U.K. production on Matt Reeve's DC Films reboot for at least two weeks. The film stars Robert Pattinson as the Caped Crusader. On April 20, Warner Bros. officially shifted the release date back four months to Oct. 1 from its originally planned June 2021 release date. The shift also pushed back some other DC titles, including "The Flash" to June 3, 2022 and "Shazam 2!" to Nov. 4, 2022.
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"Samaritan"
On March 14, MGM paused production on the Sylvester Stallone thriller. The film had been shooting in Atlanta.
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Getty Images
"Cinderella"
Sony's modernized take on "Cinderella" from director Kay Cannon and starring Camila Cabello will put its production on hiatus due to the travel ban extension to the UK. The film was shooting at Pinewood Studios.
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Warner Bros.
"Fantastic Beasts 3"
The third installment of J.K. Rowling's "Fantastic Beasts" series that's spun off from the Harry Potter universe will postpone its production that was scheduled to begin in March in the U.K. The film stars Eddie Redmayne, Johnny Depp, Jude Law and Katherine Waterston.
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Warner Bros.
"The Matrix 4"
Production on "The Matrix 4" was temporarily put on hold in March, an individual with knowledge told TheWrap. The sequel starring Keanu Reeves was in production in Berlin, Germany.
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A24
"First Cow"
After releasing Kelly Reichardt's "First Cow" in limited release on March 6, the distributor announced Monday it will re-release the film in theaters later this year.
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Greenwich Entertainment
"Deerskin"
The theatrical release of the indie film "Deerskin" from director Quentin Dupieux starring Jean Dujardin has been postponed until further notice. Greenwich Entertainment meant to release the film on March 20 after it played at Cannes, TIFF and Fantastic Fest. The movie will now open via a virtual cinema offering on May 1.
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Getty Images/Naughty Dog
"Uncharted"
“Uncharted,” the film adaptation of the popular PlayStation video game franchise starring Tom Holland, Mark Wahlberg, and Antonio Banderas, was unable to begin production in March amid coronavirus concerns. As part of a larger shuffle of Sony's release slate, the most recent release date for the film was also shifted back from March 2021 to Oct. 8, 2021.
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Sony Pictures Classics
"The Climb"
Sony Pictures Classics' indie comedy "The Climb," which played at Sundance this year, was meant to hit theaters March 20 and will now be released on Oct. 9.
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20th Century Studios
"Avatar"
The sequels to James Cameron's four "Avatar" sequels delayed shooting in New Zealand indefinitely, according to the film's producer Jon Landau speaking to the New Zealand Herald. The executive team was to fly to Wellington, NZ on Friday but will remain in Los Angeles due to the coronavirus. Landau said he couldn't give an answer as to when production would resume and when the local Kiwi crew could get back to work. "If I told you we are going to know something in two weeks I'd be lying. I might not be wrong - even a broken clock is right twice a day. But I would be lying because I don't know," Landau said. "We're in the midst of a global crisis and this is not about the film industry. I think everybody needs to do now whatever we can do, as we say here, to flatten the curve."
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Searchlight Pictures
"The Personal History of David Copperfield"
Searchlight Studios was meant to release "Veep" creator Armando Iannucci's comedic take on the Charles Dickens novel on May 8. It will now open in limited release on August 14.
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20th Century Studios
"The Woman in the Window"
The Amy Adams mystery thriller from director Joe Wright, "The Woman in the Window" was meant to open in theaters on May 15 from 20th Century Studios. No new release date has been set.
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Samuel Goldwyn Films
"Bull"
The theatrical release of the Annie Silverstein indie drama "Bull" was postponed from its March 20 release and will now open on VOD and digital on May 1. The film has toured the festival circuit since making its debut at Cannes in 2019.
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Universal
"Minions: The Rise of Gru"
The latest "Minions" movie "The Rise of Gru" was postponed from its release date on July 3. Illumination Entertainment's Paris office was forced to shut down due to the coronavirus, so the film was not able to be finished in time. Universal will release the film on July 2, 2021, a full year after its initial date.
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Warner Bros.
"Wonder Woman 1984"
The sequel to "Wonder Woman" starring Gal Gadot will now hit theaters on Oct. 2 after first being pushed back from its June 5 release date and again from Aug. 12.
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Warner Bros.
"In the Heights"
The movie musical based on Lin-Manuel Miranda's stage production "In the Heights" was postponed by Warner Bros. from its June 26 release date and bumped to June 18, 2021.
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Getty Images
"Malignant"
"Malignant," a horror film from director James Wan, was pushed indefinitely from its release date on Aug. 14 to clear the way for "Wonder Woman 1984" to open at the tail end of the summer.
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Sony
"Peter Rabbit 2," "Morbius" and "Ghostbusters: Afterlife"
In a sweeping overhaul of its release slate, Sony moved three films it had scheduled for release this summer to the first quarter of 2021. The "Peter Rabbit" sequel will now be released in January 2021 while both "Morbius" and "Ghostbusters: Afterlife" have been moved to next March. -
Sony
"Greyhound"
Sony has moved a WWII drama written by and starring Tom Hanks off of its mid-June release date and partnered with Apple to release the film on Apple TV+ in early July. -
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"Wicked"
Universal has removed the movie musical adaptation of “Wicked” from its release slate from its original date on Dec. 22, 2021, and will be redated at a later time.
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Illumination
"Sing 2"
Illumination’s “Sing 2” will now open in the place vacated by “Wicked” on Universal's release slate on Dec. 22, 2021.
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Paramount
"Top Gun: Maverick"
The sequel to the 1985 hit starring Tom Cruise has been pushed back from June 24 to December 23, 2020.
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Universal
"Candyman"
Universal's horror film "Candyman" from director Nia DaCosta and produced by Jordan Peele will move from its June 12 release date to Sept. 25, 2020.
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Photographed by Ian Spanier for TheWrap
"Praise This"
The Will Packer-produced musical comedy "Praise This" about a church choir was delayed from its Sept. 25 release date and will be re-added to the slate by Universal at a later date.
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Paramount Animation
"The Spongebob Movie: Sponge On The Run"
Paramount originally shifted the animated "Spongebob" movie from its release date on May 22 to open on August 7, but it will now debut in early 2021 on premium VOD followed by the rebranded CBS All Access.
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Disney
"Jungle Cruise"
With the shift of "Mulan," Disney moved the release of the Dwayne Johnson adventure comedy "Jungle Cruise" back a full year to July 30, 2021.
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20th Century Fox/Disney
"Free Guy"
The Ryan Reynolds video game comedy was meant to open July 3 but will now open Dec. 11.
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Searchlight Pictures
"The French Dispatch"
Director Wes Anderson’s “The French Dispatch” moved from July 24, 2020 to Oct. 16, 2020 as part of Disney's shift of its entire release calendar.
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Paramount
Untitled Indiana Jones
The fifth Indiana Jones movie starring Harrison Ford has already shifted its release date in response to Disney's wave of other release changes. It will now open July 29, 2022.
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Photograph by Steven Gerlich for TheWrap
"Nobody"
Universal's "Nobody," a revenge thriller and action movie starring Bob Odenkirk from the writer of "John Wick" and the producers of "Atomic Blonde," was delayed from its Aug. 14, 2020 release date to now open on Feb. 26, 2021. As a result, an untitled M. Night Shyamalan thriller that was slated for that day is now undated and will be re-added to the calendar later.
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Walt Disney Studios/Pixar
"Soul" and "Raya and the Last Dragon"
Disney and Pixar's "Soul" was moved from its June release date to open on Nov. 20. It's now opening near where the Disney Animation Studios film "Raya and the Last Dragon" was meant to open. That movie will now debut March 12, 2021. It filled the slot of an unnamed Disney live-action film that has now been removed from the slate.
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Getty Images
"Infinite"
The latest film from director Antoine Fuqua starring Mark Wahlberg, "Infinite," was pushed back by Paramount from its Aug. 7 release date to now open on Memorial Day weekend, May 28, 2021. The film is currently in post-production, and while "Infinite" wasn't explicitly pushed back due to the coronavirus, the new date allows the studio more time to ramp up the film's original intellectual property.
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"The Many Saints of Newark"
The prequel to "The Sopranos" that follows a young Tony Soprano, played by James Gandolfini's son Michael Gandolfini, during the 1960s Newark riots was pushed to 2021, now opening on March 12, 2021 after originally being slated for a September 2020 release.
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Getty Images
"King Richard"
The biopic about the life of tennis great Richard Williams starring Will Smith was pushed from its November 2020 release date to now opening almost a full year later on Nov. 19, 2021.
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Sony
"Venom: Let There Be Carnage"
While the "Venom" sequel did get a new title from Sony in its latest update, "Let There Be Carnage," it also found itself pushed back from an October release to now open on June 25, 2021.
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Getty Images
"Dungeons & Dragons"
Paramount's movie based on the "Dungeons & Dragons" game from the directors of "Game Night," John Francis Daley and Jonathan Goldstein, has been delayed from a November 2021 release date to May 27, 2022.
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Starz
"Spell"
Paramount's horror film starring Omari Hardwick that was set for release in August of this year was pulled from the release calendar, with no new date set as of yet.
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Lionsgate
"John Wick: Chapter 4"
The fourth movie in the Keanu Reeves action franchise "John Wick" was moved back a full year to now open May 27, 2022. Lionsgate also juggled several of its other big releases to 2021 and 2022, including "Fatale" (10/30/20), "Voyagers" (11/25/20), "The Asset" (4/23/21), "Barb and Star Go to Vista Del Mar" (7/16/21), "The Hitman's Wife's Bodyguard" (8/20/21) and "American Underdog: The Kurt Warner Story" (12/10/21). Further, the films "Run" and "Jesus Revolution" are both without release dates.
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Lionsgate
"Antebellum"
Lionsgate's horror movie "Antebellum" starring Janelle Monáe was moved from its April release date to now being the studio's next most earliest release in 2020 on Aug. 21.
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Universal
"The Forever Purge"
The fifth film in "The Purge" horror franchise was meant to open in theaters on July 10 of this year but was pulled from the release calendar. No new date has been set as of yet.
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Courtesy of Sundance Institute/Focus Features
"Kajillionaire"
"Kajillionaire," the latest film from director Miranda July that made its debut at Sundance and stars Debra Winger, Richard Jenkins and Evan Rachel Wood, has been pushed from its planned June release date to now open Sept. 18, 2020. However, the film will still open theatrically in a limited release.
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Getty Images
"Everybody's Talking About Jamie"
20th Century Studios' adaptation of the stage musical about a teenage drag queen stars Max Harwood and Richard E. Grant. It was meant to open Oct. 23, 2020 but will now open Jan. 22, 2021.
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Photo Courtesy of Apple Corps Ltd.
"The Beatles: Get Back"
"The Beatles: Get Back," a documentary from Peter Jackson about the Fab Four's time recording the "Let It Be" album and culminating in their historic rooftop concert, was pushed back from a fall release on Sept. 4, 2020 to now open Aug. 27, 2021.
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"The Broken Hearts Gallery"
Selena Gomez-produced rom-com “The Broken Hearts Gallery” is the story of Lucy, a 20-something art gallery assistant living in New York who, after her latest breakup, decides to create a pop-up art space of artifacts from past relationships. The film which was scheduled to be released on Aug. 7, has been pulled from the release schedule with its release date to be determined. -
"Greenland"
“Greenland,” a disaster thriller which stars Gerard Butler, along with the rest of humanity, tries to escape a massive comet that threatens to make all life on Earth extinct. Originally scheduled to be released on August 14, the film has been pushed a month to September 25.
Release slates for 2021 and beyond are taking shape as studios look to write off summer 2020
As the coronavirus continues to spread, an increasing number of movies are delaying or suspending production. As the number of impacted movies grows, TheWrap felt it would be most informative to keep a running list.
Beatrice Verhoeven
Film Editor, Twitter: @bverhoev