Which Oscar Best Picture Nominees Will Get Biggest Box Office Bump?
“La La Land,” “Fences” and “Arrival” are expanding starting Friday
Beatrice Verhoeven | January 24, 2017 @ 2:17 PM
Last Updated: January 24, 2017 @ 5:30 PM
LIonsgate
While this year’s nine Best Picture contenders are light on blockbusters — no nominee has crossed $100 million yet — Lionsgate’s “La La Land” and The Weinstein Company’s “Lion” are expected to gain the most at the box office, analysts told TheWrap.
Damien Chazelle’s musical, which tied an Academy record with 14 nominations, will reach its widest point this weekend, expanding to 3,000 theaters from 1,865. The film has grossed $90 million to date in its gradual platform release, is now expected to cross the $100 million mark this weekend.
“‘La La Land’ is in full stride and still might be under the radar but because we are talking about 61 percent expansion, it will cause a big boost, especially with the 14 nominations, which a lot of films haven’t done,” Jeff Bock, senior analyst at Exhibitor Relations, told TheWrap. “It’s not an art house film per se, it’s something else, which is good for its box office longevity. It’s going to reach $150 million because the people who have been putting off seeing it will go see it now.”
In the hours since the nominations, Fandango reported more than 50 percent higher ticket sales for “La La Land” than would be expected on an average ticketing day. And in a recent Fandango survey, 69 percent of moviegoers said they are more inclined to see a movie after it gets an Oscar nomination.
“‘La La Land’ has been a hot ticket on Fandango since day one,” Fandango correspondent Chris Witherspoon told TheWrap. “Now that it has made Oscar history as the first original musical with 14 nominations, ‘La La Land’ continues to see brisk sales as one of the year’s must-see films.”
“Lion” is also expected to get a boost from its Best Picture nomination — while The Weinstein Company will not expand the movie this weekend, it plans to take the movie wide to 1,800 plus theaters on February 3, which will give it a big (but delayed) boost in awareness and revenue.
The fact-based drama, which earned supporting nominations for Dev Patel and Nicole Kidman, earned $1.8 million last weekend, bringing its cumulative total to $16.4 million after nine weeks in limited release. The film had a drop-off of just 20.9 percent even though the theater count of 575 remained the same.
Fox’s “Hidden Figures” is expected to coast on its impressive box office performance and not get much of a further boost from its three Oscar nominations. The historical drama has grossed $83 million to date after expanding on Jan. 6 from 25 theaters to 2,471 locations, and widening further to 3,416.
If its box office continues to drop in the 20 percent range, the drama is likely to surpass the $100 million mark. But Fox has not yet responded to TheWrap’s request for comment on the upcoming screen count for the film starring Octavia Spencer, Taraji P. Henson and Janelle Monae.
“Fences,” “Arrival” and “Moonlight” are expected to get moderate boosts from their Oscar nominations. Bock said that “Fences,” starring Denzel Washington and Viola Davis, is a type of drama that has been seen before, but Washington is always a big box office draw. Add the fact that he directed the film, and “Fences” might see a bigger boost than anticipated.
Paramount will also expand Denzel Washington‘s “Fences” to 750 locations this weekend after it scored four nominations including Best Picture, Best Actress and Best Screenplay.
The studio’s “Arrival,” the top-grossing film from this year’s slate of nine nominees with $95 million to date, is expanding again this weekend, from 180 locations to 1,100-plus, and is expected to cross the $100 million mark on the strength of its eight nominations.
A24’s “Moonlight,” which also earned a total of eight nominations, has earned around $15 million since its limited debut in October. Last weekend, it played in 489 theaters and A24 will expand it to 1,000 screens this weekend — the film’s widest point of release.
Barry Jenkins’ coming-of-age drama about a gay African American man in Miami may receive only a slight boost from the Oscar recognition, Bock said, due to a narrative that “might not play in middle America.” He added, “I don’t think there is room for ‘Moonlight’ to go much further.”
Amazon Studios and Roadside Attractions’ expansion of “Manchester by the Sea” from 543 theaters to 900 to 1,000 theaters this weekend may prove less successful.
Kenneth Lonergan’s film, which has grossed $38 million since its limited release on Nov. 18, was already in the 1,000-theater range earlier this month and analysts say it may be “played out” despite its spate of nominations, including for stars Casey Affleck and Michelle Williams.
Two other nominees, CBS Films’ “Hell or High Water” and Liongate’s “Hacksaw Ridge,” won’t return to theaters following their nominations, according to their respective studios.
Mel Gibson’s “Hacksaw Ridge” has grossed $65 million domestically since its release on Nov. 4, while the August 1 release “Hell or High Water” topped out at $27 million when it concluded its theatrical run late last year.
All of these titles, however, may see a boost in post-theatrical revenue.
16 Biggest Oscar Snubs and Surprises, From Ruth Negga to Amy Adams (Photos)
This year's Oscars field is out, and its one of the strongest -- and most diverse -- that we've seen in years. But as always, there are nominations that surprised us and absences that left some grumbling. Here's a short list of those.
SURPRISE: Ruth Negga nominated for "Loving"
Emma Stone, Natalie Portman and Amy Adams were early and clear frontrunners in this category, so while Negga’s performance in “Loving” was lauded by critics, it was surprising to see her replace Amy Adams in the final ballot.
SNUB: Annette Bening for "20th Century Women"
The actress was nominated for her role for the Golden Globes (but didn’t win) and was completely overlooked by the Screen Actors Guild Awards. Turns out, Bening’s role as the mother of a male teenager coming of age in “20th Century Women” didn’t impress the Academy enough to score a nomination.
SURPRISE: Victory for "Hidden Figures
The feel-good drama about a group of African-American female NASA scientists topped the box office for two consecutive weeks and has now piloted itself to a Best Picture nomination. Awards favorite Octavia Spencer landed an Oscar nom for Best Supporting Actress
SNUB: Amy Adams for "Arrival"
Amy Adams had been a clear frontrunner for her leading role in “Arrival,” especially after having been nominated for a Golden Globe and a SAG Award in the same category. But the Academy left out the actress.
SURPRISE: Lucas Hedges for "Manchester By The Sea"
Odds-on Best Actor favorite Casey Affleck has dominated the coverage of Kenneth Lonergan's beautiful and tragic drama, but Hedges' breakout performance as 16-year-old Patrick Chandler added an element of levity and innocence to the film. While he didn't manage to get a Golden Globes nomination, the Academy took note of Hedges' performance.
SNUB: "Birth of a Nation" strikes out
Consider this one an expected snub. After its mammoth success at Sundance, "Birth of a Nation" was seen as the film that was going to carry the Academy out of its #OscarsSoWhite debacle. Instead, its wide release brought weak box office returns, historical accuracy criticism, and bad publicity after rape allegations surrounding director Nate Parker resurfaced. Instead, "Moonlight," "Fences," "Hidden Figures' and "Lion" are the movies that are bringing diversity to the Oscar race.
SURPRISE: Mel Gibson for "Hacksaw Ridge"
It seems that Hollywood is finally ready to take Gibson back. After getting a standing ovation at an Academy screening last fall, Mel Gibson has landed a Best Director nomination for "Hacksaw Ridge" in a competitive field that includes Damien Chazelle and Barry Jenkins
SNUB: "Silence"
Despite its enormous critical acclaim, "Silence" will be only the second Scorsese film in the last 15 years to not get a Best Picture nomination. Weak box office numbers and late screening releases hampered the film's campaign, and it will have to settle for just a Best Cinematography nomination
SURPRISE: Isabelle Huppert for "Elle"
The French actress was a surprise winner for the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Motion Picture - Drama for her star turn in "Elle," after most people assumed the ceremony would be another coronation for "Jackie" headliner Natalie Portman. And she continues to defy predictions, landing an Oscar nomination as well.
SURPRISE: Viggo Mortensen for "Captain Fantastic"
Mortensen continues his surprise run for his work in the hidden Sundance gem "Captain Fantastic," adding to his Golden Globe, SAG, and BAFTA nods.
SNUB: Tom Ford for Adapted Screenplay
It probably wasn't easy for the famous designer to take Austin Wright's novel "Tony & Susan" and adapt it for the big screen. The film was lauded by critics and Ford was nominated for two Golden Globes for writing and directing the film -- yet the Academy left him off the list.
Getty Images
SURPRISE: "Passengers" nominated for Original Score
The film score nomination went to "Passengers" starring Chris Pratt and Jennifer Lawrence, shutting out other contenders like "Rogue One: A Star Wars Story."
Sony
SNUB: Best Director for "Hell or High Water"
David Mackenzie didn't receive a nomination for directing "Hell or High Water," one of the most critically successful films of 2016. Instead, Mel Gibson snagged a nomination for "Hacksaw Ridge."
CBS Films
SNUB: "Gleason"
Amazon's heart-wrenching and inspiring documentary about former National Football League player Steve Gleason, who is paralyzed from the neck down due to complications from ALS, scored big with audiences -- including Best Supporting Actor nominee Michael Shannon -- but failed to pick up an Oscar nomination in one of the deepest documentary fields in years.
SNUB: "Deadpool" gets zilch
Sorry, comic book fans. The Merc's run ends here. Surprising nominations at the Golden Globes and the Producers' Guild Awards couldn't be converted into Oscar nominations, and we sadly won't see Ryan Reynolds in full Deadpool uniform goofing around on the red carpet. Unless, you know, he decides to show up anyway and demand an explanation for why he wasn't nominated.
Fox
SNUB: Taraji P. Henson
The "Hidden Figures" star may have gotten a Golden Globes nomination, but she fell short with the Academy.
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“Hidden Figures” and Ruth Negga are pleasant surprises while Annette Bening and Martin Scorsese are left out in the cold
This year's Oscars field is out, and its one of the strongest -- and most diverse -- that we've seen in years. But as always, there are nominations that surprised us and absences that left some grumbling. Here's a short list of those.