BEST PICTURE
Nominees:
“Black Panther”
“BlacKkKlansman”
“Bohemian Rhapsody”
“The Favourite”
“Green Book”
“Roma”
“A Star Is Born”
“Vice”
This race is wide open. My gut says “Roma,” while my head says when in doubt go with the Producers Guild winner, which is “Green Book.”
Predicted winner: “Roma”
BEST DIRECTOR
Nominees:
Alfonso Cuarón, “Roma”
Yorgos Lanthimos, “The Favourite”
Spike Lee, “BlacKkKlansman”
Adam McKay, “Vice”
Pawel Pawlikowski, “Cold War”
This isn’t quite a lock, because Spike Lee has never won a competitive Oscar.
Predicted winner: Alfonso Cuarón, “Roma”
BEST ACTOR
Nominees:
Christian Bale, “Vice”
Bradley Cooper, “A Star Is Born”
Willem Dafoe, “At Eternity’s Gate”
Rami Malek, “Bohemian Rhapsody”
Viggo Mortensen, “Green Book”
Malek is the clear favorite, maybe because nobody really wants to spend two hours with Dick Cheney, no matter how good Bale is at personifying the former vice president.
Predicted winner: Rami Malek, “Bohemian Rhapsody”
BEST ACTRESS
Nominees:
Yalitza Aparicio, “Roma”
Glenn Close, “The Wife”
Olivia Colman, “The Favourite”
Lady Gaga, “A Star Is Born”
Melissa McCarthy, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”
One person who can spoil Close’s fairy-tale ending: “The Favourite” star Olivia Colman, whose delicious performance was in a different category at the Globes, and who went on to beat Close at the BAFTAs.
Predicted winner: Glenn Close, “The Wife”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Nominees:
Mahershala Ali, “Green Book”
Adam Driver, “BlacKkKlansman”
Sam Elliott, “A Star Is Born”
Richard E. Grant, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”
Sam Rockwell, “Vice”
Ali’s grace and gravitas has remained unscathed even as “Green Book” has come under fire on various fronts.
Predicted winner: Mahershala Ali, “Green Book”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Nominees:
Amy Adams, “Vice”
Marina de Tavira, “Roma”
Regina King, “If Beale Street Could Talk”
Emma Stone, “The Favourite”
Rachel Weisz, “The Favourite”
This is probably a very close race between King and Weisz, with de Tavira as a possible spoiler.
Predicted winner: Regina King, “If Beale Street Could Talk”
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Nominees:
“The Favourite”
“First Reformed”
“Green Book”
“Roma”
“Vice”
“The Favourite” is the kind of thing the Academy likes in this category: smart and sassy with lots of words.
Predicted winner: “The Favourite”
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Nominees:
“The Ballad of Buster Scruggs”
“BlacKkKlansman”
“Can You Ever Forgive Me?”
“If Beale Street Could Talk”
“A Star Is Born”
If voters aren’t going to give Spike Lee the Best Director or Best Picture Oscars (and they probably aren’t), here’s an easy place to recognize the guy and salute a vital piece of work.
Predicted winner: “BlacKkKlansman”
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Nominees:
“Cold War”
“The Favourite”
“Never Look Away”
“Roma”
“A Star Is Born”
But this isn’t a slam dunk: “Cold War” is a formidable achievement, while the sumptuous but strange look of “The Favourite” calls attention to itself in a way voters might respond to.
Predicted winner: “Roma”
BEST FILM EDITING
Nominees:
“BlacKkKlansman”
“Bohemian Rhapsody”
“The Favourite”
“Green Book”
“Vice”
It feels as if Academy members simply like “Bohemian Rhapsody” better than they like its strongest competitor, “Vice.”
Predicted winner: “Bohemian Rhapsody”
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Nominees:
“The Ballad of Buster Scruggs”
“Black Panther”
“The Favourite”
“Mary Poppins Returns”
“Mary Queen of Scots”
Watch out for a possible upset by “Black Panther,” with designs that create a vivid world with a much richer subtext than usual for a Marvel flick.
Predicted winner: “The Favourite”
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Nominees:
“Border”
“Mary Queen of Scots”
“Vice”
The trolls in “Border” and the hairdos in “Mary Queen of Scots” are spectacular, but “Vice” turned Christian Bale into Dick Cheney, and that ought to be enough.
Predicted winner: “Vice”
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Nominees:
“Black Panther”
“BlacKkKlansman”
“If Beale Street Could Talk”
“Isle of Dogs”
“Mary Poppins Returns”
The race boils down to Nicholas Britell’s ravishingly beautiful music for “If Beale Street Could Talk” vs. Ludwig Goransson’s African-spiked “Black Panther” score vs. Marc Shaiman’s vibrant music to “Mary Poppins Returns.”
Predicted winner: “If Beale Street Could Talk”
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Nominees:
“All the Stars” from “Black Panther”
“I’ll Fight” from “RBG”
“The Place Where Lost Things Go” from “Mary Poppins Returns”
“Shallow” from “A Star Is Born”
“When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings” from “The Ballad of Buster Scruggs”
“Shallow” is the prohibitive front runner for a reason.
Predicted winner: “Shallow” from “A Star Is Born”
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Nominees:
“Black Panther”
“The Favourite”
“First Man”
“Mary Poppins Returns”
“Roma”
It would not be a surprise to see a “Black Panther” win here, but once again we think old habits will die hard and extravagance will win out.
Predicted winner: “The Favourite”
BEST SOUND EDITING
Nominees:
“Black Panther”
“Bohemian Rhapsody”
“First Man”
“A Quiet Place”
“Roma”
More than half the time in recent years, both of the sound awards have gone to the same film and the likeliest dual winner is probably the big rock musical, “Bohemian Rhapsody.”
Predicted winner: “Bohemian Rhapsody”
BEST SOUND MIXING
Nominees:
“Black Panther”
“Bohemian Rhapsody”
“First Man”
“Roma”
“A Star Is Born”
The sound mixing Oscar often goes to musicals, and two of them are nominated this year, with “Bohemian Rhapsody” seeming to have the momentum over “A Star Is Born.”
Predicted winner: “Bohemian Rhapsody”
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Nominees:
“Avengers: Infinity War”
“Christopher Robin”
“First Man”
“Ready Player One”
“Solo: A Star Wars Story”
There’s likely enough respect for “First Man” to give it a slight edge over “Christopher Robin,” and over bigger films like the Visual Effects Society winner “Infinity War.”
Predicted winner: “First Man”
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Nominees:
“Capernaum”
“Cold War”
“Never Look Away”
“Roma”
“Shoplifters”
Only one of these nominees is also nominated for Best Picture, so history says “Roma” will win.
Predicted winner: “Roma”
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Nominees:
“Incredibles 2”
“Isle of Dogs”
“Mirai”
“Ralph Breaks the Internet”
“Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse”
“Spider-Man” has the advantage of peaking at the right time.
Predicted winner: “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse”
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Nominees:
“Animal Behavior”
“Bao”
“Late Afternoon”
“One Small Step”
“Weekends”
“Bao” is a personal story that happens to be the first Pixar short from a female director, which means it ticks both of the boxes that have registered with voters lately.
Predicted winner: “Bao”
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Nominees:
“Free Solo”
“Hale County This Morning, This Evening”
“Minding the Gap”
“Of Fathers and Sons”
“RBG”
If Oscar voters want to send a political message, “RBG” will win; if they want to salute spectacular filmmaking, it’ll be “Free Solo.”
Predicted winner: “Free Solo”
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Nominees:
“Black Sheep”
“End Game”
“Lifeboat”
“A Night at the Garden”
“Period. End of Sentence”
If “Period. End of Sentence” has a slight edge over “Black Sheep” and “End Game,” it’s because this is always a tough category filled with stories about serious issues, and the winner is often the film that offers a little light and a way forward.
Predicted winner: “Period. End of Sentence”
BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT
Nominees:
“Detainment”
“Fauve”
“Marguerite”
“Mother”
“Skin”
“Marguerite,” the touching story of a dying woman who shares a long-buried secret with her caregiver, has an edge because it’s the nominee that makes you feel something other than horror.
Predicted winner: “Marguerite”
