“Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales” is on pace for a $77 million Memorial Day weekend total, with a $62 million estimated three-day total from 4,276 locations.
That would continue the slide for the “Pirates” franchise at the domestic box office, with the 3-day total dropping 31 percent from the $90 million opening for the last “Pirates” film, “On Stranger Tides.” It’s also drifting closer to the $46 million three-day opening made by the franchise’s first film, “The Curse of the Black Pearl,” back in 2003. With an A- on CinemaScore, the film has pleased those who did see the movie, but franchise fatigue and poor critic reception — 32 percent on Rotten Tomatoes — has put some holes in this boat.
But when overseas numbers are factored in, Disney will make back its $230 million budget easily, as it is expected to gross over $300 million worldwide by the end of Monday. In China, it is on target for a $67 million opening weekend, the third highest for any Disney film behind only “Captain America: Civil War” and “Avengers: Age of Ultron.”
With an estimated three-day overseas total of $208 million, “Dead Men Tell No Tales” is about to push the “Pirates” franchise past an all-time gross total of $4 billion. Even with dropping domestic numbers, don’t be surprised if Captain Jack Sparrow returns to the seas in the future.
Paramount/Skydance’s “Baywatch,” meanwhile, is struggling to get any traction and has remained at a four-day estimate of $22 million from 3,647 locations and a five-day total of $26 million. It remains in third place for the weekend behind “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2,” which is estimated to make $24.2 million.
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That means “Baywatch,” which has a reported budget in the high $60 million range, is on pace to become another flop for Paramount, as independent trackers had it making around $40-42 million over five days. Between this and other box office misfires like “Rings,” “xXx: The Return of Xander Cage” and “Ghost in the Shell,” Paramount has had a very rough 2017 and will need its one big tentpole franchise release, “Transformers: The Last Knight,” to perform well when it releases in July.
Rounding out the top five is Fox’s “Alien: Covenant” and Warner Bros.’ “Everything, Everything.” “Covenant” is projected for a $13.1 million four-day total, while “Everything, Everything” is looking at an estimated $7.6 million.