After the disappointing “Birds of Prey” opening last week, movie theaters and studios are hoping for better returns during the Valentine’s/Presidents’ Day weekend, which will see the DC Comics movie attempt a rebound against a varied slate of new releases led by the Paramount family film “Sonic the Hedgehog.”
“Sonic” will be the No. 1 film on this 4-day weekend as both Paramount and independent trackers are projecting an extended opening total in the low $40 million range. While that would be a decent start for this $95 million-budgeted CGI/live-action hybrid, Paramount is aiming much higher than decent, and the studio likely hopes for a theatrical run strong enough to merit a sequel.
“It was a really rough 2019 for Paramount, and that’s in good part because they just don’t have enough reliable franchises,” said Exhibitor Relations analyst Jeff Bock. “If ‘Sonic’ can become popular with families and overseas audiences, it could really help them build a more consistent movie slate that won’t have as many long slumps like we saw last year.”
There was a time when it seemed like “Sonic” was headed for disaster. When the film’s first trailer was released last April ahead of a then-scheduled November release, Sonic fans, critics and even the uninitiated mocked the character’s eerily human-looking design so thoroughly that Paramount moved back the release to February to make time for a total redesign of the character. The new design turned out much closer to the character’s video game appearance, and when a second trailer was released, reception among kids and “Sonic” fans was far more positive.
That trailer was followed by one of the biggest marketing campaigns for a Paramount release in recent years, with billboards, commercials, and bus ads prominently featuring Sonic’s makeover. But the blue hedgehog wasn’t alone. The campaign has also heavily pushed Jim Carrey, who plays Sonic’s nemesis Dr. Robotnik. The past decade saw Carrey take a big step back from the slapstick roles that made him a big star in the 90s and 2000s, with the one exception being a return to one of his most famous roles with “Dumb and Dumber To” in 2014.
The Robotnik footage shown in the trailers have teased a return to the Carrey of old, which might lure in moviegoers who aren’t fans of Sonic but who grew up watching Carrey 25 years ago and are nostalgic for his brand of humor. If demographic breakdowns this weekend show a stronger than expected turnout from non-family audiences over the age of 35, that might be a reason why.
“Sonic the Hedgehog” will also release in 41 countries overseas, including in South America, Australia, and much of Europe. But China and Japan, the Asian markets where Sonic is most popular, are still to come. But even if word of mouth is positive both domestically and internationally this weekend, Paramount could see overseas numbers sag if the coronavirus crisis persists by the time “Sonic” is released in Chinese theaters on February 28.
China’s government has ordered the closure of almost every theater in the country as part of an effort to contain the virus that has as of this writing killed over 1,000 people. The lockdown began during the Lunar New Year holiday when many Chinese films come out, and those films have had their theatrical releases indefinitely postponed. Even if theaters are back in business by the time “Sonic” is supposed to be released in China, it’s quite likely that it will have to compete with an extremely jammed market filled with local fare like “Detective Chinatown 3,” reducing how much money it might make in Asia. That will be something both Paramount and analysts will have to keep in mind when it comes time to look at the overall theatrical performance and determine whether we will see a “Sonic 2” in the future.
Directed by Jeff Fowler, “Sonic the Hedgehog” follows the SEGA video game icon (voiced by Ben Schwartz) as he flees his world and arrives on Earth to hide from those who want to take his super-speed powers. But after an accidental encounter with a small-town Montana sheriff (James Marsden,) Sonic’s presence is exposed to the world, and he must team up with the cop to avoid being hunted down by the evil Dr. Robotnik. Tika Sumpter also stars in the film, which was written by Pat Casey and Josh Miller.
In addition to “Sonic,” two other wide releases will try to bring in Valentine’s Day couples looking for a date movie: the Sony/Blumhouse horror film “Fantasy Island” and the Universal romance “The Photograph.”
“Fantasy Island” is a dark take on the classic Ricardo Montalban TV series, starring Michael Peña in Montalban’s role as Mr. Roarke, the owner of a mysterious remote island that offers to make the wishes of its visitors come true. But for Roarke’s visitors, those granted wishes soon turn into nightmares, forcing them to figure out the island’s secrets if they want to make it out alive. Directed by Jeff Wadlow, the film is projected to earn a 4-day opening of around $18 million against a reported budget of $7 million. Sony is projecting a $13-15 million start.
“The Photograph” stars LaKeith Stanfield as a journalist who forms an unexpected relationship with the estranged daughter (Issa Rae) of a recently deceased photographer he is writing a story on. Lil Rel Howrey, Rob Morgan and Courtney B. Vance also star in the film, which was written and directed by Stella Meghie. The film has a reported budget of $16 million and is projected to earn a 4-day opening weekend of $12-14 million.
None of this weekend’s new releases had a critics score on Rotten Tomatoes at time of writing.
10 Top-Grossing Movies of All Time, Adjusted for Inflation (Photos)
"Avengers: Endgame" became the highest-grossing film of all time on July 21, when Disney announced that the movie had pulled in $2.79 billion at the global box office. But the title of the highest-grossing film is a deceptive one -- it doesn't take into account the changing prices of movie theater tickets or the general effect of economic inflation. CNBC enlisted Comscore, a media analytics company, to calculate the top 10 highest-grossing films in the U.S. when ticket price changes and inflation are taken into account.
Because of the wide variations in inflation rates between currencies, Comscore analysts focused only on ticket sales in the United States, where "Endgame" made $854 million according to BoxOfficeMojo. They found the average ticket price for the year a film was released and divided that into the film's domestic gross to find the estimated number of tickets the film sold, then multiplied the estimated number of tickets by the average price of a ticket in 2019 ($9.01, according to CNBC). Comscore also included any times that the film was re-released in the adjusted domestic gross.
At an $854 million domestic gross, "Endgame" did not even crack the top 10 when adjusted for inflation.
Here are the top domestic earners:
10. "Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs" (1939)
Estimated admissions: 109,000,000
Non-adjusted domestic gross: $184,925,486
Estimated domestic adjusted gross: $982,090,000
Disney’s first animated feature has been rereleased at least three times since its debut in 1937 according to CNBC, selling around 109 million tickets in total. “Snow White” made more in its 1983, 1987 and 1993 releases than it did in its initial run, and when all of those are adjusted for today’s ticket price, the movie would have made just under $1 billion in the U.S.
RKO Radio Pictures
9. "The Exorcist" (1973)
Estimated admissions: 116,532,505
Non-adjusted domestic gross: $232,906,145
Estimated domestic adjusted gross: $1,049,957,870
Audiences may have fainted, vomited and cried in the theater when “The Exorcist” debuted in 1973, but that didn’t stop them from buying tickets. William Friedkin’s groundbreaking horror film made the bulk of its money during its initial release, according to CNBC, and was brought to theaters again in 2000 and 2010 with extended scenes. All told, the movie sold an estimated 116.5 million tickets, which equates to around $1.04 billion.
Warner Bros.
8. "Doctor Zhivago" (1965)
Estimated admissions: 124,612,132
Non-adjusted domestic gross: $112,150,919
Estimated domestic adjusted gross: $1,122,755,309
“Doctor Zhivago” earned $112.1 million during its 1965 theatrical run, selling around 124.6 million tickets. The romantic drama, based on a 1957 novel by Boris Pasternak, picked up five Academy Awards, and would have brought in around $1.12 billion at today’s ticket prices.
MGM
7. "Jaws" (1975)
Estimated admissions: 128,078,818
Non-adjusted domestic gross: $260,000,000
Estimated domestic adjusted gross: $1,153,990,148
Often referred to as the first summer blockbuster, Steven Spielberg’s “Jaws” debuted in 1975, selling around 128 million tickets and ruining an untold number of beach vacations. That’s equivalent to $1.15 billion at today’s ticket prices.
Universal Pictures
6. "The Ten Commandments" (1956)
Estimated admissions: 131,000,000
Non-adjusted domestic gross: $65,500,000
Estimated domestic adjusted gross: $1,180,310,000
Cecil B. DeMille’s biblical epic sold an estimated 131 million tickets during its 1956 run, earning $65.5 million. When adjusted for inflation, the Charlton Heston and Yul Brynner vehicle would have earned $1.18 billion at the box office, even with its 3-hour-and-40-minute runtime.
Paramount Pictures
5. "Titanic" (1997)
Estimated admissions: 143,501,591
Non-adjusted domestic gross: $658,672,302
Estimated domestic adjusted gross: $1,292,949,334
Even without adjustments for inflation, James Cameron’s high-seas romance sits just below “Avengers: Infinity War” as the sixth highest-grossing film at the domestic box office and just under “Avatar” as the third highest-grossing film globally. The film has been in theaters three times -- an initial run, a 3D rerelease and a 20th anniversary rerelease -- selling about 143.5 million tickets in total. By today's ticket prices, the movie would have earned around $1.29 billion.
Paramount Pictures
4. "E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial" (1982)
Estimated admissions: 147,950,537
Non-adjusted domestic gross: $434,974,579
Estimated domestic adjusted gross: $1,333,034,339
Steven Spielberg’s sci-fi adventure has brought in $434.9 million since it was first released in 1982. It sold about 147.9 million tickets over the course of three releases, with two rereleases in 1985 and 2002, which equates to around $1.33 billion using today’s average ticket price. The movie’s effect on Reese’s Pieces sales remains in dispute, though.
Universal Pictures
3. "The Sound of Music" (1965)
Estimated admissions: 157,218,258
Non-adjusted domestic gross: $159,509,250
Estimated domestic adjusted gross: $1,416,536,505
The hiiills are alive...with the sound of 157 million tickets…
This musical was released twice in theaters, first in 1965 and again in 2018, selling the majority of its tickets in the initial run and making $158.8 million in the U.S. Adjusted for today’s ticket prices, that’s $1.41 billion.
Twentieth Century Fox
2. "Star Wars" (1977)
Estimated admissions: 178,119,595
Non-adjusted domestic gross: $460,998,007
Estimated domestic adjusted gross: $1,604,857,551
The original “Star Wars” (“Star Wars: Episode IV - A New Hope” for the sticklers in the audience) has been rereleased in theaters at least twice since it first wowed audiences in 1977, earning $460.9 million in the United States. It sold an estimated 178.1 million tickets, which comes out around $1.6 billion in modern box office terms.
Twentieth Century Fox
1. "Gone with the Wind" (1939)
Estimated admissions: 201,068,305
Non-adjusted domestic gross: $203,078,988
Estimated domestic adjusted gross: $1,811,625,428
1939’s Civil War-era romance has been rereleased at least seven times since its premiere, according to Comscore, selling around 201 million tickets, which equates to about $1.81 billion in modern ticket prices. That leaves Clark Gable and Vivien Leigh’s Southern drama a theoretical billion dollars ahead of the latest Marvel flick’s domestic gross.
MGM
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When box office numbers are adjusted for ticket price inflation, ”Gone With The Wind“ easily tops ”Avengers: Endgame“
"Avengers: Endgame" became the highest-grossing film of all time on July 21, when Disney announced that the movie had pulled in $2.79 billion at the global box office. But the title of the highest-grossing film is a deceptive one -- it doesn't take into account the changing prices of movie theater tickets or the general effect of economic inflation. CNBC enlisted Comscore, a media analytics company, to calculate the top 10 highest-grossing films in the U.S. when ticket price changes and inflation are taken into account.
Because of the wide variations in inflation rates between currencies, Comscore analysts focused only on ticket sales in the United States, where "Endgame" made $854 million according to BoxOfficeMojo. They found the average ticket price for the year a film was released and divided that into the film's domestic gross to find the estimated number of tickets the film sold, then multiplied the estimated number of tickets by the average price of a ticket in 2019 ($9.01, according to CNBC). Comscore also included any times that the film was re-released in the adjusted domestic gross.
At an $854 million domestic gross, "Endgame" did not even crack the top 10 when adjusted for inflation.