The October box office is off to an unprecedented start this weekend, as Columbia Pictures’ “Venom” is currently estimated to obliterate this month’s opening weekend record with an $81.7 million start from 4,250 screens.
If that estimate holds, it would be 46 percent ahead of the previous October record set by “Gravity” five years ago with $55.7 million. Even the more conservative $70 million estimate Sony is projecting would be 25 percent above the record. “Venom” earned $32.8 million — including an October record $10 million from Thursday previews — and performed solidly with Marvel fans with a B+ on CinemaScore.
With critics giving the film just a 31 percent score on Rotten Tomatoes, we will see if the approval from hardcore Spider-Man fans translates into interest with general audiences to sustain the film in later weeks. Another Sony film that earned a B+ on CinemaScore, “The Amazing Spider-Man 2,” opened to $91 million in summer 2014, but fell 61 percent in its second weekend. The good news is that “Venom” was made on a much cheaper budget of $100 million, putting the break even point much lower than most comic book movies.
Warner Bros.’ “A Star Is Born” will be in a distant second this weekend, but the studio won’t lament that, as the Bradley Cooper/Lady Gaga awards contender is also beating analyst expectations with an estimated $42.4 million opening from 3,686 screens. Analysts had been expecting an opening of around $35 million, but such a result would put the film among the top 10 October openings of all-time.
More importantly, “A Star Is Born” is looking like it will be the crowd-pleaser critics said it would be, earning an A from all quadrants on CinemaScore on top of its 91 percent Rotten Tomatoes score. That puts Cooper’s directorial debut in position for long-term success at the box office, as it will draw interest from younger Lady Gaga fans and older prestige audiences well into November.
Last week’s releases, WB’s “Smallfoot” and Universal’s “Night School,” are holding on decently against the tough competition. “Smallfoot” is currently sitting in third with an estimated $14.1 million opening, just a 39 percent drop from its $23 million opening. “Night School” is looking at a 55 percent drop and a $12.5 million second weekend after opening to $27.2 million. Universal’s “The House With a Clock in Its Walls” completes the top five with an estimated $7 million third weekend.
Combined, the total weekend grosses is currently estimated to clock in at $170 million, which would be a new October weekend record.