Hanks vs Theron vs Samberg: With Theaters Still Closed, Summer Movie Showdowns Shift to Streaming

The biggest movie faceoff this summer took place in viewers’ living rooms rather than the multiplex. On July 10, Netflix debuted the Charlize Theron franchise-starter “The Old Guard” while Hulu premiered the Sundance favorite “Palm Springs” with Andy Samberg and Cristin Milioti. Even Apple TV+ got in on the action with Tom Hanks’ WWII thriller “Greyhound.” It was the first time that three major streaming services all had a big movie premiering on the same day, but it might not be the last. All summer long, major releases that used to play on gigantic screens have instead gone to streaming, while films that were supposed to rule the summer like “Wonder Woman 1984” and “Tenet” (which got delayed for the third time on Monday) are kept on ice. Comparing streaming viewership with any potential box office results is a fool’s errand, like equating apples with apple computers. After all, any Netflix or Hulu viewer is already paying for the service, so clicking “play” isn’t the same as buying a $15 ticket. But one analyst believes that many of those films would have performed, at worst, modestly if they were given a typical theatrical release. “There is definitely a correlation between online ‘free’ viewing and interest, and I’m sure there is a normalized percentage of people who would have paid to see the film in a theater,” Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter said. “Whether that percentage is 10% or 30%, I don’t really know.” “Palm Springs” broke records on Hulu. The rom-com recorded the streamer’s biggest opening weekend ever, viewed more times than any other movie in its first three days after launching. It was also the most discussed Hulu film on Twitter in its first three days. While Hulu did not release any specific viewership stats, it said that more people watched “Palm Springs” than when the service first premiered this year’s Best Picture winner “Parasite.” Hulu and Neon paid a record $17.5 million for “Palm Springs” at Sundance in January, before the global box office was upended by the pandemic. While the indie distributor Neon managed to get “Palm Springs” to play at a few drive-in theaters, the Hulu launch served as the mind-bending rom-com’s “release date.” Apple TV+, which has not released any subscriber info since its November launch, made headlines when it grabbed the Tom Hanks WWII thriller “Greyhound,” which was earmarked for a theatrical run from Sony. The film, starring and written by Hanks and directed by Aaron Schneider, broke the viewership record for an Apple TV+ original film in its opening weekend, an individual with knowledge told TheWrap, and 30% of the viewers of “Greyhound” were, in fact, new to the service. “The Old Guard,” which starred Charlize Theron and was based on the comic book of the same name, is already among Netflix’s most popular films ever and the streamer said it’s on track to be viewed in 72 million households within its first four weeks. The list of major films that played out on streaming this year while theaters remain closed grows beyond those three. Netflix, which has been making inroads into film for the past few years, had Will Ferrell-Rachel McAdams comedy “Eurovision” and Spike Lee’s follow up to his Oscar-winning “BlackKklansman,” the Vietnam-set drama “Da 5 Bloods.” Chris Hemsworth’s global action thriller “Extraction” became the service’s most-watched film ever following its April debut. Over the July 4th weekend, Disney+ debuted the highly anticipated filmed version of Lin-Manuel Miranda’s Broadway smash “Hamilton.” Like many others, “Hamilton” was primed for a big-screen run before the pandemic forced the company to change course. Pachter estimated that a film like “Extraction” could have done well in theaters, but Lee’s Vietnam War film less so. “I’m sure (‘Extraction’) would have done 25 million tickets sold ($250 million of box office),” Prachter continued. “It’s harder to say the correlation is as high on ‘Da 5 Blooods’ (27 million) and ‘The Wrong Missy’ (59 million), but again, I’m sure they would have done 10% or more of this in box office ($27 million and $59 million, respectively) and maybe twice that amount.” While streaming has ruled the summer of 2020, its business model can’t replicate the billion-dollar box office haul that films like “Mulan” and “Black Widow” are eyeing. “How are you going to make a billion dollars in box office without theatrical? Well, right now for some movies, they want to get them seen and recoup some and offset some of the money spent,” ComScore analyst Paul Dergarabedian said. “But for some of the really big movies, they’re still going to wait. And that says a lot.”