The guilds have spoken.
(Well, most of them, anyway.)
But what have they told us? What have the Directors Guild of America, the Writers Guild of America, the Producers Guild of America, the Screen Actors Guild, the American Society of Cinematographers and the Art Directors Guild said with their nominations?
They’ve said many things. Some are contradictory. Some have a bearing on the Oscar race. Some don’t. Which are which may only be apparent in retrospect.
But here are 10 lessons we might take from the past week’s worth of guild nominations:
1. “Avatar” has broad support. Of course James Cameron’s record-setting blockbuster was going to be nominated by the PGA (they love movies that make money) and the DGA (they love strong directors). But it also picked up nods from the ADG, the ASC … and, crucially, the WGA, whose 10,000 members honored the film for what was widely considered its weak link, its screenplay.
I’m not yet persuaded that this broad-based appreciation is going to translate into an Oscar nomination for writing, or an Oscar win for Best Picture; I think it’ll have too many detractors within the elements of the Academy that aren’t represented in those guilds.
But its support is unquestionably widespread … except, to judge by the SAG nominations, among actors, who also make up by far the largest Academy branch.
2. Size matters … Sorry, “Bright Star” and “The Messenger” and “The Last Station” and the other small movies that were thought to be on the bubble, ready to slide into the best-picture race. Except in the acting categories, most of them didn’t emerge from the guilds with the kind of momentum they needed – whereas more commercial successful films like “Star Trek,” “Distict 9” and “The Hangover” all scored significant nominations.
3. … Except when it doesn’t. “(500) Days of Summer” and “Crazy Heart,” a pair of Fox Searchlight films, scored WGA nominations and kept their Academy hopes alive in the key writing categories. The former film seems a likely Oscar nominee, the latter an increasingly potent competitor – particularly as voters pick up those screeners to view Jeff Bridges’ performance.
4. “Star Trek” just might boldly go where no “Star Trek” movie has gone before. A Best Picture nomination? Two weeks ago, I’d have thought that it’d be a contender in the sound and effects categories, but not much else. Now I’d say a best-pic nod isn’t logical – but it’s certainly possible.
5. Three’s a crowd … of five. Last year, as Sasha Stone at Awards Daily pointed out, five films picked up nominations from all three of the top guilds – four of which wound up as Oscar Best Picture nominees, and one of which ("The Dark Knight") was edged out by "The Reader," to the dismay of many. This year, four turned the same trick: “Avatar,” “The Hurt Locker,” “Precious” and “Up in the Air.”
