For a while there, it looked so clear-cut.
The Oscar sweepstakes was a two-horse race, the blockbuster “Avatar” vs. the critics' and guild favorite "The Hurt Locker."
But upsets are not unheard of come Oscar night. And within the last couple of weeks, the buzz has been suggesting that an upset could come in the shape of Quentin Tarantino’s “Inglourious Basterds.”
Harvey Weinstein, to be sure, has done a brilliant job of casting "Basterds" as the third alternative.
He’s done this in the past with films like “Shakespeare in Love” and “The Cider House Rules,” persuading voters, sometimes successfully and sometimes not, that his horse is the only one that has a real shot at knocking off the frontrunner.
Can he pull it off?
Here's how the race is shaping up so far -- and what could muddy the waters.
When “Avatar” was released, it suddenly had Best Picture stamped all over it. Not only was it drawing huge crowds, but two words in particular were being used to describe James Cameron's 3D epic: game changer.
And “Hurt Locker”? A terrific movie, without question. But gritty little war dramas just don’t take home the gold on Oscar night. Especially not when the war is one we’re still fighting.
Then “Hurt Locker” started winning awards. One after another. Film critics’ awards: Los Angeles, New York, Chicago. Then, more importantly, the Hollywood guilds: Producers Guild. Art Director’s Guild. American Cinema Editors.
And along with the movie, Kathryn Bigelow was racking up Best Director kudos, including the big one, the DGA.
Suddenly, the race came down to the top-grossing film of all time vs. what would be the lowest-grossing Best Picture winner ever.
And that’s where it seemed to stand, with the smart money actually giving it to Bigelow and her film by a nose.
Enter Harvey.
Weinstein has been pulling out all the stops, flatly proclaiming that "Basterds" is going to win Best Picture.
To that end, Quentin Tarantino has been making constant public and private appearances. Audi sponsored a packed party for film and director. Norman Lloyd and Roger Corman threw a smaller lunch at Musso and Franks.
The latter gathering seemed to suggest that Tarantino has the approval of an odd subset of the Academy, voters like Mickey Rooney, who told the L.A. Times that he doesn’t see new movies.
Weinstein also has suggested that the Academy’s newly installed preferential system of counting final Best Picture ballots might hurt Cameron’s love-it-or-hate-it blockbuster and help propel his film to victory.
Under that system, voters are asked to rank all 10 nominees from first to last. Unless one film gets more than 50 percent of the first-place votes – which, let’s face it, is virtually impossible in this year’s race – the film with the fewest Number One votes will be eliminated. Its ballots will then be redistributed into the pile of whatever film is ranked second on each ballot.
The process continues, with the last-place film eliminated in each subsequent round, until one film winds up with a majority of the votes.
