The closer it gets to Oscar night, the less certain I feel.
Sure, a lot of the races seem pretty set, especially in the acting categories. But elsewhere, starting with Best Picture, many sure things have been shaken by a race that turned ugly and informal polling that points all over the map.
That said, here’s what I think will be in those envelopes when they’re opened on Sunday at the Kodak Theater. Categories are listed in the order in which they appear on the Oscar ballot.
Best Picture of 2009: “The Hurt Locker”
No question, “Avatar” is a colossus, its impact on the industry so massive that some Academy voters wouldn’t consider voting for anything else. But the remarkable string of guild victories for “The Hurt Locker” indicates a breadth of support that’s impossible to ignore.
“Hurt Locker” certainly could have been damaged by the recent fuss over injudicious emails sent by a producer and the controversy over its accuracy. But the attacks all came in the final week of voting, and I doubt they cost the movie too many votes. Plus, it’s just as likely that “Avatar” will be hurt by the preferential system of vote counting, which rewards consensus favorites over more divisive, “love ‘em or hate ‘em” films.
An “Avatar” win won’t surprise me. An “Inglourious Basterds” win would, though it’s possible. A different longshot would be a shock. But in the end, I think that the Academy will simply second what the producers, writers, editors, sound mixers, Brits and critics have already said: that “The Hurt Locker” is 2009’s Best Picture.
Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role: Jeff Bridges, “Crazy Heart”
It’s not the SAG, Golden Globe and Critics Choice Movie Awards wins that have me convinced; it’s the palpable affection in the room for Bridges every time he takes home another prize. People love this guy, and his performance in Scott Cooper’s understated, touching character study gives them an irresistible way to show that love.
Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role: Christoph Waltz, “Inglourious Basterds”
Was there ever any doubt about this one? No, there wasn’t.
Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role: Sandra Bullock, “The Blind Side”
Okay, I give up. I don’t want to pick her. I think her performance, while strong and solid and pleasing, is the least awards-worthy of the five nominees. I would love to see an upset by Carey Mulligan or Gabourey Sidibe. And I still think there’s a very good chance that Oscar voters, when they are finally faced with that ballot in front of them, will realize that it’s an insult to Meryl Streep not to vote for her. But despite all that, I find it impossible to shake off the feeling that it’s Bullock’s year.
Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role: Mo’Nique, “Precious”
See: Waltz, Christoph.
Animated Feature: “Up”
There’s a reason “Up” got a Best Picture nomination and the other four nominees didn’t: the Academy likes it best.
