Warner Bros.

At Saturday night’s Producers Guild Awards, “A Star Is Born” could take a huge step toward becoming the Oscar Best Picture winner that many people thought it would be as soon as it premiered at the Venice Film Festival in August.

Or it could go home from the PGA looking like the Oscar also-ran that it has appeared to be at some other recent awards shows.

The Producers Guild is the moment of truth for Bradley Cooper’s hit musical, the night on which it absolutely needs to go home with the big prize.

Also Read: 'A Star Is Born' Film Review: Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga Reinvigorate a Classic

In a way, that hardly seems fair for “A Star Is Born.” The film, after all, has almost run the table on guild and professional nominations, which are all-important precursors to the Oscars. It is the only film to have been nominated by the Directors Guild, Producers Guild, Writers Guild, Screen Actors Guild (including the SAG ensemble award), American Cinema Editors, Art Directors Guild, American Society of Cinematographers, Cinema Audio Society, Costume Designers Guild, Casting Society of America, Make-Up Artists & Hair Stylists Guild and Society of Camera Operators.

(It wasn’t nominated by the Visual Effects Society, but it’s hard to hold that against it.)

By guild nominations alone, “A Star Is Born” ought to be a frontrunner. Its problem is that to win the top Oscar, you need to look like a winner — and you look like a winner by winning big awards, which is where “A Star Is Born” has fallen short so far.

Also Read: 'A Star Is Born' Continues Guild Awards Sweep With Cinema Audio Society Nomination

It went into the Golden Globe Awards a prohibitive favorite in several categories, including Best Actress (Lady Gaga) and Best Motion Picture – Drama. In the former category, Lady Gaga lost to Glenn Close in a shocking upset; in the latter, it was beaten by “Bohemian Rhapsody,” which had received far more negative reviews than any other nominee.

Then, a week later, “A Star Is Born” went into the Critics’ Choice Awards in a tight race with “Roma” — and while Lady Gaga tied with Close for the win, the film once again lost the best-picture award, this time to Alfonso Cuaron’s black-and-white drama.

Of course, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association and the Broadcast Film Critics Association, which vote for the Globes and the CCA, respectively, are a far cry from the Academy. It doesn’t often happen that a film will lose at both of those awards shows and then win Best Picture, but it can happen: “Birdman” did it in 2015 and “The King’s Speech” in 2011.

But this is crucial: In both of those cases, things turned around with a win at the Producers Guild Awards. The PGA is the show that confirmed “The King’s Speech” as an Oscar favorite even after “The Social Network” had won everything in sight until then. It was the show that tipped the balance in the tight race between “Birdman” and “Boyhood” four years later.

Also Read: Producers Guild Awards Nominations Include 'Roma,' 'Black Panther,' 'A Star Is Born' - and Also 'Crazy Rich Asians'

It’s also the only major awards show that counts its final votes using the preferential system in use in the Oscars’ Best Picture category. That system uses ranked choice to find a consensus winner, and its use makes the PGA a key early test.

It’s not infallible by any means. After both groups expanded their Best Picture slates in 2009 and instituted preferential voting, the PGA winner went on to win the Oscar for six years in a row (including a dead heat in 2014, when Oscar winner “12 Years a Slave” tied with “Gravity” at the PGA). But the guild went for “The Big Short” in 2016 and “La La Land” in 2017, while the Oscars took “Spotlight” and “Moonlight,” so the correlation has been shaky in recent years despite a 2018 match on “The Shape of Water.”

Still, “A Star Is Born” needs to turn things around quickly to acquire the patina of a winner, particularly since Cooper will be a decided underdog to Cuaron at the Directors Guild Awards on Feb. 2. Ideally, it wants to go into the homestretch with PGA and SAG ensemble wins — and if it doesn’t get the former, it’s likely that the latter won’t be enough.

The Producers Guild could be crucial for some other films, too. A win for “Roma” would make it a genuine Oscar favorite, while a victory for “Green Book” would put it in the thick of that race despite the criticism it has weathered lately. And if “Black Panther,” “BlacKkKlansman,” “Vice” or something else wins, all bets are off.

The film with the highest stakes, though, is clearly “A Star Is Born.” The movie still has a path to Oscar victory, but that path needs to start on Saturday night at the Beverly Hilton.

The Evolution of Bradley Cooper, From 'Sex in the City' to 'A Star Is Born' (Photos)

"He's the kind of hot where, trust me, when he's in front of you, you would just grab your ankles," Amy Schumer said about Bradley Cooper in a memorable "Saturday Night Live" monologue. And yet Cooper has gone from relative obscurity and bit parts on TV to bona fide auteur.
"Sex and the City" (1999)

Bradley Cooper's very first acting role was in the second season of "Sex and the City," where he had a quick fling with Sarah Jessica Parker's Carrie Bradshaw. But it ended after Cooper's character spotted an embarrassing photo shoot gone wrong of Carrie in a magazine.
HBO
Inside the Actors Studio (2000)

Cooper enrolled in NYC's Actors Studio Drama School for an MFA in 2000, and he famously appeared on an episode of Bravo's "Inside the Actors Studio" asking a question of Sean Penn. The moment became something of a meme when someone spliced together a comment from Cooper's "American Hustle" co-star Louis C.K. saying that anyone who asks a question on "Inside the Actors Studio" will never be famous.
"Wet Hot American Summer" (2001)

"Wet Hot American Summer" is a cult classic in part because it featured so many comedians who later went on to mega-stardom, including Amy Poehler, Paul Rudd, Elizabeth Banks and many more. In his feature film debut, Cooper plays a camp counselor and theater director -- and love interest to Michael Ian Black's character, as later revived in the "First Day of Camp" Netflix series.
USA Films
"Alias" (2001-2003)

One of Cooper's big recurring roles was as the nerdy Will Tippin on J.J. Abrams' "Alias." He played a newspaper reporter and friend to Jennifer Garner's superspy. Cooper later told GQ he was miserable on the set and asked for Will be written out, anticipating he might eventually be fired.
ABC
"Wedding Crashers" (2005)

Cooper played the best bad boyfriend ever, Sack Lodge, in "Wedding Crashers." Cooper would be stuck playing the asshole type for a few more years, but he'd eventually move into leading man roles before long.
Warner Bros.
"Kitchen Confidential" (2005-06)

Cooper played a cocky version of an Anthony Bourdain-type chef, specifically Jack Bourdain, in this short-lived cooking drama very loosely based on Bourdain's best-seller "Kitchen Confidential."
Fox
"Nip/Tuck" (2007)

Cooper had a six-episode stint on Ryan Murphy's FX drama "Nip/Tuck," playing an actor named Aidan Stone. Back then, he was still being referred to in news reports as the "'Alias' hottie." And sure enough he found an opportunity to take his shirt off, as in this clip, where Cooper plays a surgeon in a TV drama who ends up stripping down to save a man's life.
FX
"The Hangover" (2009)

In addition to "He's Just Not That Into You," Bradley Cooper's breakout role came in 2009 when he co-starred in the surprise smash comedy "The Hangover." Cooper plays a type-A personality opposite Ed Helms and Zach Galifianakis. With this hit, and its two sequels, showed his versatility as a comic actor and launched himself into movie stardom.
Warner Bros.
"The A-Team" (2010)

Cooper starred opposite Liam Neeson, Sharlto Copley and Quinton "Rampage" Jackson in the remake of the '70s TV show "The A-Team," stepping into the role made famous by Dirk Benedict.
"Limitless" (2011)

Not only did Cooper get to strut his stuff as a leading man, he also served as a producer on "Limitless," Neil Burger's thriller about a man who takes a pill that enables him to tap into 100 percent of his brain's capabilities, making him a savant at anything he touches. Sounds a lot like Cooper, to be honest. Cooper would even cameo in CBS' short-lived spinoff series.
Relativity Media
"Silver Linings Playbook" (2012)

Cooper's first taste of prestige fare was in David O. Russell's "Silver Linings Playbook," playing a Philadelphia man recently out of a mental institution who is still recovering from anger issues and outbursts. Opposite Jennifer Lawrence, Robert De Niro and Jacki Weaver, the role was by far the highlight of Cooper's career until that point, netting him his first Oscar nomination.
The Weinstein Company
"American Hustle" (2013)

Cooper would pair with David O. Russell and Jennifer Lawrence again in the '70s throwback caper "American Hustle," even getting a stylish perm (and another Oscar nomination) for the part.
Columbia Pictures Corporation
"Guardians of the Galaxy" (2014)

While Cooper isn't technically a superhero, he's part of the Marvel Cinematic Universe as the voice of Rocket in "Guardians of the Galaxy." Cooper has called his voice a combination of Gilbert Gottfried meets Joe Pesci. "I look at him now, and that's me," he told Ellen DeGeneres.
Marvel
"American Sniper" (2014)

Cooper would be nominated as both an actor and as a producer for his work on Clint Eastwood's "American Sniper." The story of U.S. Marine Chris Kyle became the highest grossing movie of 2014.
Warner Bros.
"The Elephant Man" (2015)

In 2015, Cooper took his talents to Broadway, going full method in his portrayal of the Elephant Man John Merrick. The production broke records at the box office, but some quibbled that Cooper was too attractive for the role.
Broadway.com
"A Star is Born" (2018)

Cooper got his shot at directing when he took over for Clint Eastwood on the latest remake of the oft-remade "A Star Is Born." At that point, Beyoncé was still attached to a lead role that would eventually go to Lady Gaga -- as an up-and-coming singer who falls under the wing (and falls for) an older musician played by Cooper himself.
Warner Bros.

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Cooper has played the nerd, jerk and hunk (and raccoon) in everything from “Alias,” “Wedding Crashers” and “The Hangover”

"He's the kind of hot where, trust me, when he's in front of you, you would just grab your ankles," Amy Schumer said about Bradley Cooper in a memorable "Saturday Night Live" monologue. And yet Cooper has gone from relative obscurity and bit parts on TV to bona fide auteur.

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The Evolution of Bradley Cooper, From 'Sex in the City' to 'A Star Is Born' (Photos)

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