The “movie star question” has been top of mind for many in Hollywood over the last few years: Do “movie stars” really exist anymore? Can attaching an incredibly popular actor actually draw significant ticket sales, or are those days over?
This year offered several interesting data points to this specific topic, with new movies from Scarlett Johansson, Brad Pitt, Tom Cruise, Julia Roberts, Jennifer Lawrence and Robert Pattinson hitting theaters, as well as new films from buzzy new stars like Sydney Sweeney and Glen Powell.
So what’s the verdict? As ever, it’s a mixed bag — there’s data to suggest that some of these aforementioned actors still have enough juice to lure people to theaters, but there’s also ample evidence that a movie star alone cannot open a film anymore. Especially a drama.
But the data was enough to come away with a few big takeaways. As we close the book on 2025, here’s what we can definitively say about movie stars based on this year’s box office.
A movie star + IP is the winningest formula
The year’s top domestic box office hits paired a piece of IP with a recognizable – and bankable – star. “A Minecraft Movie” leaned hard on Jack Black ($424 million domestic), “Jurassic World: Rebirth” was anchored by Scarlett Johansson ($340 million), “Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning” brought Tom Cruise back one last time ( $191 million) and “F1: The Movie” put Brad Pitt in the driver’s seat ($190 million).
Verve agent David Boxerbaum told TheWrap that mixing classic IP with smaller original projects is key to a movie star’s viability.
“I think it’s really smart,” he said. “You could do a couple of originals, but then you go do a huge piece of branded IP and it puts you right back in the zeitgeist.”
It doesn’t always work – “Tron: Ares” was one of the year’s biggest flops with $73 million domestic, but that film’s performance put into question the viability of both the “Tron” franchise and Jared Leto.
Conversely, Johansson is one of the most bankable stars when it comes to mixing IP with a respected name.
Over 70% of U.S. adults say they’re a fan of Johansson, approximately 118 million people, according to Greenlight Analytics data shared with TheWrap. Her popularity paired with the “Jurassic” franchise resulted in an 84% awareness for “Rebirth,” higher than “Jurassic World: Dominion” (68%), “Avatar: The Way of Water” (75%) and even “Spider-Man: No Way Home” (76%).
It’s no surprise that the actress has already been tapped to anchor a new “Exorcist” movie for Universal and filmmaker Mike Flanagan and is in talks to switch from Marvel to DC with a key role in “The Batman: Part II.” And in between all this, she released her directorial debut this year, “Eleanor the Great.” There’s that mix.
Even the buzziest publicity tour can’t turn out audiences for a drama
Celebrity culture is alive and well, but viral social media videos of co-stars getting cuddly or being funny does not necessarily translate to butts in seats – especially for a drama.
Jennifer Lawrence and Robert Pattinson flooded social media and late night shows in the run-up to the release of their marital drama “Die, My Love,” and despite the fact that their off-screen chemistry was buzzy, the film bombed opening weekend with just $2.6 million on nearly 2,000 screens. The domestic total for the Mubi release stands at $5.6 million.
Awareness never rose above 16% for the film over eight weeks, according to Greenlight Analytics data. No amount of YouTube videos of Lawrence and Pattinson cracking each other up could convince consumers at large to buy a ticket to a very serious film about post-partum depression and a marriage falling apart.
Even among those who were interested in seeing “Die My Love,” there was a major gap that emerged between Theatrical Intent (29%) and Willingness to Pay (40%), according to the Greenlight data.
On the flip side, Dwayne Johnson and Emily Blunt’s A24 sports drama “The Smashing Machine” achieved massive awareness – 93% – but only 16% of those aware planned to see it opening weekend. The film grossed just $11 million domestically, a far cry from the blockbusters Johnson is used to opening.
And Amazon MGM’s college-set drama “After the Hunt” tumbled with just $3 million domestic despite mixing movie stars both classic (Julia Roberts) and new (Andrew Garfield).
Even Sydney Sweeney, the trending-est of all trending celebrities in 2025, bombed at the box office with one of the lowest opening weekends for a wide release ever for her boxing biopic “Christy.” The Black Bear Pictures film opened to just $1.3 million and its domestic total never cracked $2 million. Ouch.
The key to making a drama succeed at the box office, it appears, is adding a genre element. Which brings us to…
Horror gets a boost from great performances
Horror had a great year in 2025, but films like “Sinners” and “Weapons” succeeded in part thanks to the buzz created by outstanding performances.
With Warner Bros.’ “Sinners” ($280 million domestic), Michael B. Jordan’s dual lead roles offered a meaty hook. For “Weapons” ($152 million domestic), Amy Madigan’s terrifying turn as Aunt Gladys sparked Oscar buzz and created a new Halloween costume.
But both films also had a strong conceptual draw. Warner Bros. leaned into the mystery surrounding the central premises of “Weapons” and “Sinners,” not revealing too much in the marketing campaigns. Buzz after their strong opening weekends fueled consistent performance.
“Audiences love discovery,” Boxerbaum said. “Audiences love being told a whisper campaign — ‘Have you seen it? Have you heard about it? Did you watch it?’ That’s usually what gets people really out of their seats.”
Lower-tier Marvel characters don’t cut it anymore
Whether superhero fatigue is real or not, the Marvel Cinematic Universe is in a rut. This year’s three Marvel movies — “Captain America: Brave New World” ($200 million domestic), “Thunderbolts” ($190 million) and “The Fantastic Four: First Steps” ($274 million) — all underperformed relative to the franchise’s prior heyday of $500 million+ grossers, despite packing each film with recognizable stars.
“Captain America” had Harrison Ford, “Thunderbolts” leveraged the fandom for Florence Pugh and David Harbour and “Fantastic Four” starred the Internet’s boyfriend Pedro Pascal. And yet, each film floundered.
Awareness on release week for “Thunderbolts,” which utilized the least well-known characters of the three films, was 54%, far below MCU counterparts (“Fantastic Four” at 77%, “Deadpool & Wolverine” at 69%).
IP is the biggest movie star of all
You knew it was coming. The biggest movie star of 2025? IP.
Look no further than the success of “A Minecraft Movie” ($424 million domestic), “Lilo & Stitch” ($424 million), “How to Train Your Dragon” ($263 million) and, of course, “Superman” ($354 million). Each of these films was fueled primarily by recognizable IP, and it worked — awareness for all four films was over 74%, with Disney’s live-action “Lilo & Stitch” topping with 78% awareness.
Warner Bros. and DC’s “Superman” is perhaps the most interesting use case here. Ahead of release, there was chatter about the film’s lack of star power. But the promise of a new, colorful take on an iconic character was enough to draw audiences in and endear them to relative unknown David Corenswet.
Men over 35 were the strongest demo for “Superman,” according to Greenlight Analytics data, and while the film wasn’t as four-quadrant as Warner Bros. hoped, its massive awareness (77%) and supercharged demo pushed the film to success. DC hopes for similar but different results with next year’s “Supergirl,” starring Milly Alcock, for which they’ll likely attempt to activate the female demographic.
