It’s never easy to predict, or even understand, the 90-odd members of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, whose choices for the 76th Annual Golden Globes will be revealed on Sunday.
But we’ve done our research, we know the tendencies they’ve shown in the past and we have some sense of how the Los Angeles-based foreign journalists might be leaning. We suspect that’ll mean a very good night for Bradley Cooper’s “A Star Is Born,” and a pretty good one for Peter Farrelly’s “Green Book” and Yorgos Lanthimos’ “The Favourite.”
If our suspicions are correct, two people will go home from the Beverly Hilton with a Globe in each hand: Lady Gaga, who will win for acting and for songwriting, and Alfonso Cuarón, who’ll take the prize for director and for producing foreign-language winner “Roma.”
On the TV side, Globe voters are often torn between recognizing the critical favorites and getting to shows before the Emmys can. Shows that premiered after June 1 of last year, which include “Bodyguard,” “Homecoming” and “The Kominsky Method,” can give the Globes a jump on the Emmys, which is always an attractive prospect for the HFPA.
That should result in a couple of big wins for the newcomers, though it won’t stop relative old-timers like “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” from collecting some hardware as well.
Here are our best guesses in the 14 film and 11 television categories.
FILM CATEGORIES
Best Motion Picture – Drama
Nominees:
“Black Panther”
“BlacKkKlansman”
“Bohemian Rhapsody”
“If Beale Street Could Talk”
“A Star Is Born”
Voters really loved “Bohemian Rhapsody,” and the idea of rewarding Spike Lee for “BlacKkKlansman” might be awfully tempting. But Bradley Cooper plus Lady Gaga in a big hit should be irresistible.
Prediction: “A Star Is Born”
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama
Nominees:
Glenn Close – “The Wife”
Lady Gaga – “A Star Is Born”
Nicole Kidman – “Destroyer”
Melissa McCarthy – “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”
Rosamund Pike – “A Private War”
Globe voters have been on the Lady Gaga bandwagon ever since they gave her a Golden Globe for “American Horror Story: Hotel” in 2016. Despite formidable competition from Nicole Kidman, Glenn Close and Melissa McCarthy, they’ll show her just how much they love her again this year.
Prediction: Lady Gaga, “A Star Is Born”
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama
Nominees:
Bradley Cooper – “A Star Is Born”
Willem Dafoe – “At Eternity’s Gate”
Lucas Hedges – “Boy Erased”
Rami Malek – “Bohemian Rhapsody”
John David Washington – “BlacKkKlansman”
Remember when we said “voters really loved ‘Bohemian Rhapsody?’” Well, we weren’t kidding. They love it so much, which means they love its star Rami Malek so much, that it is in line to score a win in a category that might otherwise belong to Bradley Cooper.
Prediction: Rami Malek, “Bohemian Rhapsody”
Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Nominees:
“Crazy Rich Asians”
“The Favourite”
“Green Book”
“Mary Poppins Returns”
“Vice”
This is the more competitive of the two best-picture categories, with “The Favourite,” “Green Book” and “Vice” all having real shots to win, and the other two films not out of the running either. In a close race, we’re guessing that “Green Book” is just a little bit more universally appealing than “The Favourite” and “Vice.”
Prediction: “Green Book”
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Nominees:
Emily Blunt – “Mary Poppins Returns”
Olivia Colman – “The Favourite”
Elsie Fisher – “Eighth Grade”
Charlize Theron – “Tully”
Constance Wu – “Crazy Rich Asians”
Charlize Theron is the biggest star, Elsie Fisher the hot newcomer, Constance Wu the pick that would make a statement about diversity. But the race is probably a close one between Olivia Colman, who anchors “The Favourite,” and Emily Blunt, the one actress in the musical or comedy category who also gets to show her musical chops.
Prediction: Olivia Colman, “The Favourite”
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Nominees:
Christian Bale – “Vice”
Lin-Manuel Miranda – “Mary Poppins Returns”
Viggo Mortensen – “Green Book”
Robert Redford – “The Old Man & The Gun”
John C. Reilly – “Stan & Ollie”
They gave “Vice” more nominations than any other movie, so they’ve got to give it a trophy somewhere, right? While Amy Adams in the supporting-actress category could be the one, Bale dominates the movie and he’s the obvious choice. Sorry, Viggo.
Prediction: Christian Bale, “Vice”
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in any Motion Picture
Nominees:
Amy Adams – “Vice”
Claire Foy – “First Man”
Regina King – “If Beale Street Could Talk”
Emma Stone – “The Favourite”
Rachel Weisz – “The Favourite”
Will “The Favourite” split its votes, or will its two nominations push voters to unite behind one of the members of its stellar ensemble? If a split, the beneficiary will be Amy Adams, the bigger star, or Regina King, the critics’ favorite; if not, Rachel Weisz could give “The Favourite” its second acting Globe.
Prediction: Rachel Weisz, “The Favourite”
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in any Motion Picture
Nominees:
Mahershala Ali – “Green Book”
Timothee Chalamet – “Beautiful Boy”
Adam Driver – “BlacKkKlansman”
Richard E. Grant – “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”
Sam Rockwell – “Vice”
Voters who love “Green Book” no doubt do so to a great degree because of its two main actors, Viggo Mortensen and Mahershala Ali. And voters who are uncomfortable with a white person’s take on a story of racial injustice can still embrace Ali, who brought grace and gravitas to the role. But watch out for Richard E. Grant, who could be a sleeper.
Prediction: Mahershala Ali, “Green Book”
Best Director – Motion Picture
Nominees:
Bradley Cooper – “A Star Is Born”
Alfonso Cuarón – “Roma”
Peter Farrelly – “Green Book”
Spike Lee – “BlacKkKlansman”
Adam McKay – “Vice”
With HFPA rules preventing the most critically-acclaimed film of the year from participating in a best-picture category, this is the major category in which voters can recognize “Roma.” All of the other nominees have a shot, particularly Bradley Cooper and Spike Lee, but international voters may feel duty-bound to go with Cuarón’s singular achievement.
Prediction: Alfonso Cuarón, “Roma”
Best Screenplay – Motion Picture
Nominees:
Alfonso Cuarón – “Roma”
Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara – “The Favourite”
Barry Jenkins – “If Beale Street Could Talk”
Adam McKay – “Vice”
Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie and Peter Farrelly – “Green Book”
“Vice” has a shot if voters want to get political, and “Green Book” has a shot if they want to get sentimental. But in recent years, voters have gone for clever and wordy in this category (“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” “Steve Jobs,” “Django Unchained” … ), and among this year’s nominees that tendency points to “The Favourite.”
Prediction: “The Favourite”
Best Motion Picture – Animated
Nominees:
“Incredibles 2”
“Isle of Dogs”
“Mirai”
“Ralph Breaks the Internet”
“Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse”
The critics adore “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse,” but Globe voters aren’t critics. Their tastes run more to the likes of Brad Bird’s “Incredibles 2” and Wes Anderson’s “Isle of Dogs,” which should be the front runners in a close race.
Prediction: “Incredibles 2”
Best Motion Picture – Foreign Language
Nominees:
“Capernaum” – Lebanon
“Girl” – Belgium
“Never Look Away” – Germany
“Roma” – Mexico
“Shoplifters” – Japan
“Capernaum” is such a wrenching and powerful film that it has a chance to score an upset here. And no doubt some voters will want to use this category to send a message to the Academy, which left “Girl” off the Oscars shortlist. But “Roma” is the only film in this category that was also nominated in another category (best director, no less), and the only one that’s expected to contend for the Best Picture Oscar. And it has the formidable weight of Netflix behind it.
Prediction: “Roma”
Best Original Score – Motion Picture
Nominees:
“A Quiet Place”
“Isle of Dogs”
“Black Panther”
“First Man”
“Mary Poppins Returns”
The last two winners of this award were Justin Hurwitz for “La La Land” in 2017 and Alexandre Desplat for “The Shape of Water” last year. And they could be the leading candidates this year as well, Hurwitz for “First Man” and Desplat for “Isle of Dogs.” But watch out for Marc Shaiman for “Mary Poppins Returns” and Ludwig Goransson for “Black Panther,” because this is a fiercely competitive category. The smart money might be on “First Man” or “Mary Poppins,” but this is the HFPA’s best chance to salute “Black Panther,” one of the year’s landmark films, and we suspect they’ll take it.
Prediction: “Black Panther”
Best Original Song – Motion Picture
Nominees:
“All the Stars” – “Black Panther”
“Girl in the Movies” – “Dumplin’”
“Requiem for a Private War” – “A Private War”
“Revelation” – “Boy Erased”
“Shallow” – “A Star Is Born”
They’ve got Kendrick Lamar, Dolly Parton, Annie Lennox, Troye Sivan and Jonsi as the writers and performers of the first four songs on that list. But if this is Lady Gaga’s year, as all indications suggest it will be, there’s no way she doesn’t win this one, too.
Prediction: “Shallow” from “A Star Is Born”
TELEVISION CATEGORIES
Best Television Series – Drama
Nominees:
“The Americans”
“Bodyguard”
“Homecoming”
“Killing Eve”
“Pose”
In some ways, the hottest new show among voters appears to be the BBC America series “Killing Eve,” which is the likely winner. But in one big way — a big way that goes by the name of Julia Roberts, its star — “Homecoming” is a formidable contender that completely plays into the HFPA’s everlasting fondness for giving statuettes to the biggest stars they can find. We’re guessing that in this category, at least, they go for the show, not the star.
Prediction: “Killing Eve”
Best Performance by an Actress In A Television Series – Drama
Nominees:
Caitriona Balfe – “Outlander”
Elisabeth Moss – “The Handmaid’s Tale”
Sandra Oh – “Killing Eve”
Julia Roberts – “Homecoming”
Keri Russell – “The Americans”
But in this category, where it’s the stars rather than the shows who are going head-to-head, “Killing Eve” lead Sandra Oh may find it impossible to overcome the fact that she is up against nine-time nominee and three-time winner Julia Roberts.
Prediction: Julia Roberts, “Homecoming”
Best Performance by an Actor In A Television Series – Drama
Nominees:
Jason Bateman – “Ozark”
Stephan James – “Homecoming”
Richard Madden – “Bodyguard”
Billy Porter – “Pose”
Matthew Rhys – “The Americans”
Matthew Rhys is supposed to win because this past season was the final one for “The Americans,” and that kind of sentiment could well come into play. But Globe voters also had a real fondness for the BBC series “Bodyguard,” and its star, Richard Madden, which could be an upset waiting to happen.
Prediction: Richard Madden, “Bodyguard”
Best Television Series – Musical or Comedy
Nominees:
“Barry”
“The Good Place”
“Kidding”
“The Kominsky Method”
“The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
“The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” is the reigning Emmy champ, and it’s well-liked enough by the voters to make it a frontrunner of sorts. But they’re also fans of “The Good Place,” which has been largely overlooked by Emmy voters, and of the new show “The Kominsky Method,” which has come on strong in awards voting since its November premiere on Netflix.
Prediction: “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
Best Performance by an Actress in a Television Series – Musical or Comedy
Nominees:
Kristen Bell – “The Good Place”
Candice Bergen – “Murphy Brown”
Alison Brie – “GLOW”
Rachel Brosnahan – “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
Debra Messing – “Will & Grace”
Like the comedy-series category, this one will probably boil down to “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” (in the person of Rachel Brosnahan) vs. “The Good Place” (Kristen Bell). And just like the comedy-series category, we suspect that Mrs. Maisel will eke out a narrow win.
Prediction: Rachel Brosnahan, “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
Best Performance by an Actor in a Television Series – Musical or Comedy
Nominees:
Sacha Baron Cohen – “Who Is America?”
Jim Carrey – “Kidding”
Michael Douglas – “The Kominsky Method”
Donald Glover – “Atlanta”
Bill Hader – “Barry”
Bill Hader is the reigning Emmy champ, Sacha Baron Cohen an irresistible wild card who could give the show a viral moment. But Michael Douglas is royalty to this group, a 12-time nominee and three-time winner, or four if you count his Cecil B. DeMille Award. And “The Kominsky Method” is right up their alley.
Prediction: Michael Douglas, “The Kominsky Method”
Best Television Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
Nominees:
“The Alienist”
“The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story”
“Escape at Dannemora”
“Sharp Objects”
“A Very English Scandal”
It would be a real upset if anything other than “The Assassination of Gianni Versace” won. But that’s not to say that “A Very English Scandal” or “Sharp Objects” don’t have a chance, particularly since “Gianni Versace” already won three Emmys, which could make the newer shows seem fresher.
Prediction: “The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story”
Best Performance by an Actress in a Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
Nominees:
Amy Adams – “Sharp Objects”
Patricia Arquette – “Escape at Dannemora”
Connie Britton – “Dirty John”
Laura Dern – “The Tale”
Regina King – “Seven Seconds”
The Globes’ TV acting categories are often rife with upsets, and all of the nominees are conceivable winners here. (If they’re not going to give Regina King a Globe for “If Beale Street Could Talk,” for instance, they could make it up to her here.) But Amy Adams has been nominated for Globes nine times, including twice this year, and this should be her third win.
Prediction: Amy Adams, “Sharp Objects”
Best Performance by an Actor in a Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
Nominees:
Antonio Banderas – “Genius: Picasso”
Daniel Bruhl – “The Alienist”
Darren Criss – “The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story”
Benedict Cumberbatch – “Patrick Melrose”
Hugh Grant – “A Very English Scandal”
Darren Criss is the favorite in the eyes of most Globes-watchers, and deservedly so. But we shouldn’t underestimate the charm of Hugh Grant, who also gets a boost this year because of “Paddington 2,” or the appeal of “A Very English Scandal.”
Prediction: Hugh Grant, “A Very English Scandal”
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Series, Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
Nominees:
Alex Borstein – “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
Patricia Clarkson – “Sharp Objects”
Penelope Cruz – “The Assassination of Gianna Versace: American Crime Story”
Thandie Newton – “Westworld”
Yvonne Strahovski – “The Handmaid’s Tale”
In the television supporting categories, actors from dramas and comedies and movies and miniseries are all competing together, which makes these categories wildly varied and confusing. Alex Borstein is the strongest contender among the three series regulars — but miniseries actors can sometimes make a bigger impact in a shorter period of time, which could give an edge to Penelope Cruz or Patricia Clarkson. Because the Emmys have already lavished praise on Cruz’s show, we suspect Clarkson will take the award.
Prediction: Patricia Clarkson, “Sharp Objects”
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Series, Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
Nominees:
Alan Arkin – “The Kominsky Method”
Kieran Culkin – “Succession”
Edgar Ramirez – “The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story”
Ben Whishaw – “A Very English Scandal”
Henry Winkler – “Barry”
Henry Winkler won the Emmy and could very well win the Globe as well. But “A Very English Scandal” could well be one of those shows that sneaks off with a couple of awards, so we’ll pick Ben Whishaw over Winkler or Edgar Ramirez.
Prediction: Ben Whishaw, “A Very English Scandal”