'The Martian,' 'Spotlight' and 5 Other Movies That Could Win the Best Picture Oscar

At this stage in the Oscar race, we’re supposed to have a pretty good idea of what’s going to win Best Picture. Last year by late November, the race was narrowing to “Birdman” or “Boyhood,” the year before to “12 Years a Slave” or “Gravity.”

But 2015 feels different. Three potentially huge awards movies have yet to be released, along with one guaranteed blockbuster — and the fact that Alejandro G. Inarritu’s “The Revenant,” David O. Russell‘s “Joy,” Quentin Tarantino‘s “The Hateful Eight” and J.J. Abrams “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” are still largely under wraps was enough to persuade the American Film Institute to postpone voting for the year’s 10 best films until its members had time to see all the major players.

But Oscar pundits don’t have the liberty of putting everything on hold until we’ve seen it all. So our take on this year’s race is an uneasy one, with “The Revenant” and “Joy” in particular casting huge shadows over any and all proclamations that “Spotlight” is the film to beat or “The Martian” has the inside track.

Also Read: Matt Damon's Top 10 Movie Quotes: From 'Good Will Hunting' to 'The Martian' (Video)

Given the uncertainty, I don’t feel comfortable designating a frontrunner with any degree of authority. I think “Spotlight” is a terrific film that might win, but it’s certainly not a slam-dunk Oscar champ; I found “The Martian” to be enormous fun, but I’m way more comfortable with Ridley Scott as the Best Director favorite than with his film as the Best Picture leader.

So in that uncertain climate, and with the knowledge that what I’m saying about “The Revenant” and “Joy” comes without having seen either of them, here are seven films that I think have some kind of chance to win it all and the reasons why they could all fall short.

They’re arranged more or less in order of likelihood, at least for now. Check back in a couple of weeks and everything may have changed.

“Spotlight”

Why it could win: Tom McCarthy’s drama about the Boston Globe’s landmark investigation into clergy sexual abuse and coverup in the Catholic Church has thematic heft, along with the kind of top-notch ensemble cast that’ll make it formidable at the SAG Awards. It’s an exemplary piece of solid filmmaking that has picked up some of the year’s best reviews, and it’s even drawn flattering comparisons to the classic that set a high bar for movies about journalism, “All the President’s Men.” Nobody dislikes it, which means it has the kind of consensus appeal it takes to win in the final round of Oscar voting.

On the other hand: Most of the people who’ve made it the frontrunner are journalists, and of course they love it. The film played well in its official Academy screening, but not as well as several other contenders this year – and Oscar and guild voters frequently disagree with journalists and critics, as “Boyhood” and “The Social Network” can tell you. Being an exemplary piece of solid filmmaking doesn’t exactly give it the pizzazz that voters like in their Best Picture winner, and a decade-old investigative newspaper report doesn’t have the topical potency of winners like “12 Years a Slave” or “The Hurt Locker.” Besides, “All the President’s Men” might be a classic, but it didn’t win.

Also Read: Open Road's Tom Ortenberg Touts 'Spotlight's' Oscar Odds, Defends Ashton Kutcher's 'Jobs'

“The Martian”

Why it could win: Ridley Scott is overdue and has never won Best Director – and if he wins that award, as he seems likely to do at this point, his film should be the frontrunner for Best Picture. “The Martian” appeals to all the below-the-line craftspeople in the Academy, but it also has lots of great roles for actors. It’s the most enjoyable and entertaining of the nominees, which can be enough in a year without another dominant contender. (That certainly helped “Gladiator,” the one Scott movie to win Best Picture.)

On the other hand: Ridley Scott or not, it’s a popcorn movie. What was the last popcorn movie to win? “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” in 2003 seems a little solemn for that designation, so maybe you have to go all the way back to Scott’s “Gladiator” in 2000.

“Room”

Why it could win: It was a little movie that came out of nowhere to bowl people over, which worked for “Slumdog Millionaire” in 2008. It has proven to be an unlikely crowd-pleaser: witness its Toronto Film Festival audience award, an honor that has previously been won by best-pic champs “12 Years a Slave,” “The King’s Speech” and “Slumdog Millionaire.” It will have the support of the Actors Branch, because it showcased a remarkable newcomer in Jacob Tremblay and gave one of the meatiest female roles in years to Brie Larson.

On the other hand: It’s too small, too indie, too dark, from a little-known director who hasn’t paid his Hollywood dues. Its central character is a woman; you could only say that about a Best Picture winner four times in the last 25 years (“Million Dollar Baby,” “Chicago,” “Shakespeare in Love” and “The Silence of the Lambs”), and never in the last decade. It’s the kind of indie for which the nomination often seems to be award enough.

See video: 'Room' Director Lenny Abrahamson Reveals Initial Doubts About Child Star Jacob Tremblay (Video)

“The Revenant”

Why it could win: Based on a true story about an explorer left for dead in the Canadian wilderness who crawls for miles seeking revenge, this is a massive epic from Alejandro G. Inarritu, the reigning Best Picture and Best Director champ for “Birdman.” It looks spectacular, and early buzz suggests that it could give Leonardo DiCaprio his first Oscar. In a year of solid, strong movies, it might be the most ambitious, the biggest and boldest gamble – and as such, it could ignite passions in a way its competition doesn’t. Of course, all of this hinges on it being great when it finally starts screening.

On the other hand: Sight unseen, it seems awfully dark and cold. And since Inarritu won last year, nobody will vote for him because he’s due. The last time a director had back-to-back Best Picture winners was … well, never. Plus, the last December release to win the top Oscar was “Million Dollar Baby” 11 years ago.

20th Century Fox

“Joy”

Why it could win: The Actors Branch, by far the Academy’s largest, loves David O. Russell, whose last three movies have landed 11 acting nominations. He’s never gone all the way, though, so “he’s due” could be a useful narrative. The film stars Jennifer Lawrence, Bradley Cooper and Robert De Niro, Academy favorites all.

On the other hand: Russell’s last film, “American Hustle,” was not as unanimously embraced as “The Fighter” or “Silver Linings Playbook,” so naysayers could be ready to pounce if the delicate drama-comedy balance isn’t flawless. It’s being released by the same company and on the same day as “The Revenant,” which might get a bigger push because it’s a more expensive movie. And like “The Revenant,” it’s a December release.

See video: Jennifer Lawrence Is 'More Than Just an Unemployed Housewife' in New 'Joy' Trailer (Video)

“Bridge of Spies”

Why it could win: The days when Steven Spielberg could make a case that he’d been snubbed by the Academy are twenty years in the past, and now he’s an honored elder statesman in the eyes of many voters. His new movie is vintage Spielberg, which is to say that it’s exactly the kind of thing many Academy members respond to.

On the other hand: It may be vintage Spielberg, but it doesn’t have the extra oomph of his winners, “Schindler’s List” (director and picture) and “Saving Private Ryan” (director). As “Lincoln” showed two years ago, voters like Spielberg enough to nominate him, but it’s been a long time since he’s won.

Twentieth Century Fox Film Corporation

“Brooklyn”

Why it could win: It’s not a criticism to say that John Crowley’s period drama is old-fashioned, because the Academy likes old-fashioned and because the film isn’t just that. It manages to be genuinely moving and emotional in a way that will win over the older voters without alienating the younger ones. And while it’s a personal story of a young Irish girl in the 1950s, the larger issue of immigration and assimilation could not be timelier, which could lead to a groundswell of support once it’s more widely seen. It could be a favorite screener for voters to pick up and watch with their families around the holidays.

On the other hand: It still feels like a little movie, and its main character is female. (See: “Room.”) It might not command the passion to rack up enough nominations, particularly in below-the-line categories, to position itself as a top contender for the stretch run.

Oscars 2016 Contenders Party Report: Premieres, Parties, and People (Updating Photos)

At Robert Evans' Woodland Estate in Beverly Hills, documentarians huddled to celebrate Brett Morgen and "Montage of Heck" on Thursday, November 5. The intimate crowd of 25 was dense with doc A-listers: Lauren Greenfield ("Queen of Versailles"), Morgen, Amy Berg (upcoming Janis Joplin doc "Janis") and Liz Garbus ("Nina Simone").

Grey Photography
Amidst framed pictures with Evans pals like Michael Jackson, Jack Nicholson, Brett Ratner, and fellow Paramount studio chiefs like Sumner Redstone and Brad Grey, Morgen surveyed the crowd. "It's nice to see so many other documentarians here...campaigning for their own films," he deadpanned. Kirby Dick and Abigail Disney were also on scene.
Grey Photography
Sam Mendes and Harrison Ford stare each other down at the Britannia Awards on October 30. Mendes was honored with the John Schlesinger Britannia Award for Excellence in Directing presented by The GREAT Britain Campaign and Ford was honored with the Albert R. Broccoli trophy “for worldwide contribution to entertainment.”
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Meryl Street was going right to the top at the Britannia Awards: British Consul General Chris O’Connor. When accepting her award, Streep thanked the British government for giving her several work permits.
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Mark Ruffalo points out the real Michael Rezendes at the Boston premiere of "Spotlight" on Wednesday, October 28. Ruffalo plays the Boston Globe investigative reporter in the buzzy pic out November 6.
Paul Marotta/Getty Images for Warner Brothers
Director Tom McCarthy and Open Road CEO and President Tom Ortenberg made the trip to Boston, after the film's NYC premiere earlier in the week.
Paul Marotta/Getty Images for Warner Brothers
Boston royalty John Henry (Owner, Boston Globe, Boston Red Sox, and more) with wife Linda Pizzuti.
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Earlier, Ruffalo hosted GQ Publisher Howard Mittman's Gentleman's Fund event in NYC.
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Abigail Disney's "Armor of Light," an engaging documentary of Capitol Hill Tea Partiers' far-right evangelical Reverend Rob Schenck's inability to reconcile being "pro-life" and "pro-gun," to the chagrin of his passionate base, had its L.A. premiere at the DGA on Wednesday, October 13. (His constituency thinks the "NRA is a liberal organization," Schenck (far right) said.) Diane Warren (bottom right, with Disney) got an early look before the film opens on October 30.
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The "Truth" comes out....for its Academy screening. Star Cate Blanchett headlined the L.A. reveal of the film on Monday night, October 5. The James Vanderbilt-directed drama with Robert Redford and Elisabeth Moss is a contender tackling Dan Rather's censured report on President George W. Bush's military service. Sony Pictures Classics releases it in NYC and LA on October 16.
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The producers' billing block on the film includes Brett Ratner, Andrew Spaulding, and Doug Mankoff ("Nebraska"). The reception in the lobby featured regular SPC partners Ketel One and STK Out.
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The guestlist for Davis Guggenheim's "He Named Me Malala" L.A. premiere? 7,000 high school aged L.A. girls, who filled the Microsoft Theatre on Tuesday morning September 29 at the event hosted by Megan Chernin's L.A. Fund. Peter Chernin, host Megan Chernin, J.J. Abrams, Katie McGrath, and Gracie Abrams helped kick off the "Girls Build L.A. Challenge" at the event, leading in to October's "Girls Empowerment" month.
John Salangsang (3); Instagram/MTouceda (bottom right)
Later on the same day, Fox Searchlight brought "He Named Me Malala" to a LACMA screening with Film Independent, where the Oscar winning Guggenheim sat down with Elvis Mitchell.
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David Nevins and Brian Grazer (left, center) hosted a private advance screening of Amy Berg's doc "Prophets Prey" at the UTA Theater on the night after the Emmys. Previous Oscar nominee Berg's film, an investigation into Warren Jeffs and the cult of the FLDS, goes in to theaters on Sep. 25 for an Oscar qualifying run.
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"Showtime" family Dax Shepard and Kristen Bell came to the screening. Amy Berg introduces the Showtime Documentary Films production which will come to the cabler on October 10. Bottom right, Exec Producer Brian Grazer
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Oscar contenders were pouring out at the 2015 Toronto Film Festival.
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No party for "Black Mass" at TIFF, but Johnny Depp looked intimidating and Amber Heard looked ready for festivities arriving at Monday's premiere in Toronto. With the film opening this Friday, in a non-festival week, it would have likely premiered south of the border on the same night.
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"Spotlight" star Michael Keaton with Anonymous Content's Steve Golin at the two-floor sprawling Soho House party for the ripped from the headlines film getting awards buzz. Vulture called it "The Best Picture Front-Runner".
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Ray Donovan has a word for his "Spotlight" director Tom McCarthy at the Grey Goose hosted after party.
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Anonymous Content main man Michael Sugar and wife Lauren Sugar at the "Spotlight" party. Sugar is a producer on "Spotlight".
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"Juno" pals Jason Reitman and J.K. Simmons reconnected at Simmons' post-premiere party for "The Meddler" at Soho House on Monday, September 14.
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Making mom proud: "The Meddler" director Lorene Scafaria gets the ultimate hug-of-approval.
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Ratner and Rather: The director and the news legend connected at the "Truth" party at Patria.
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Catherine Hardwicke took off her "Miss You Already" baseball hat she had been wearing for Women In Film and Tiffany's panel on Monday, Sep 14. "The Duff" Producer Susan Cartsonis and "Grey Gardens" writer and now "Into the Forest" director Patricia Rozema participated.
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Olivia Wilde won the inaugural IMDB "Starmeter" award at TIFF 2013. On Monday night, "Room" director Lenny Abrahamson presented it to his lead, Brie Larson.
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Lots of buzz around "Our Brand is Crisis". Participant CEO Jeff Skoll and producer George Clooney at Participant's party.
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"Selma" director Ava DuVernay and Participant EVP Jonathan King at Participant's bash.
Eric Charbonneau/InVision for AP
Nicholas Hoult rocked a "deliriously funny" turn in "Kill Your Friends," as an A&R man in navigating the Brit-Pop explosion of 1997.
One Shot George
"Twenty Feet from Stardom" Oscar winner Morgan Neville (right) is back with another music doc: "Keith Richards: Under the Influence". They celebrated at TIFF at Nikki Beach's popup at the Spoke Club.
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The party you wanted to be at on Saturday night: HFPA and InStyle at the Windsor Arms. Zoe Kazan, Paul Dano, and Susan Sarandon at the cross-industry party.
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Carmen Ejogo with "The Danish Girl" lead and reigning Best Actor.
George Pimentel/Getty Images for HFPA
Learn this name: Jacob Tremblay. He stars with Brie Larson in "The Room". One awards commentator called him a "lead pipe cinche" for a Best Supporting Actor Oscar nom.
George Pimentel/Getty Images for HFPA
The view inside the Windsor Arms.
George Pimentel/Getty Images for HFPA
Dakota Johnson, John Lesher, Warner Bros. Pictures President Sue Kroll and Elizabeth Olsen at HFPA.
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Sarah Silverman and Sir Patrick Stewart make a great comedy duo.
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Two rhyming directors in the awards mix: Tom Hooper ("The Danish Girl") and Scott Cooper ("Black Mass").
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The Oscar winning Hooper with his Oscar nominated "The Kings Speech" actor Geoffrey Rush.
Todd Williamson/Getty Images for HFPA
Matt Damon met Torontonians before "The Martian" premiere on Friday night, September 11. Multiple awards commentators said the same thing -- his campaign is "blasting off."
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Martians: Kate Mara, Jessica Chastain and Sebastian Stan at the Fandango/Samsung studio on Sept. 11 before the film's premiere.
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"The Martian" co-star Chiwetel Ejiofor (an Oscar nominee two seasons ago) gives Wireimage founder Jeff Vespa an "Is that so?" at the Guess Portrait Studio on Sept. 11.
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WME co-CEO Patrick Whitesell with Jake Gyllenhaal inside Soho House after the "Demolition" premiere on TIFF's opening night. Highly praised, "Demolition" will be looking at Oscars 2017, as it does not arrive in theaters until April 2016.
Stephanie Keenan/Getty Images for Grey Goose
Elizabeth Olsen goes "Jaws" on co-star Tom Hiddleston's cake at the Addison on Sept. 11 while celebrating "I Saw the Light," the Hank Williams biopic.
Todd Williamson/Getty Images for Sony Pictures Classics
Meanwhile, Sony Pictures Classics Co-President Tom Bernard was equally loose at the "I Saw the Light" party.
Todd Williamson/Getty Images for Sony Pictures Classics
Cannes hit "Sicario" touched down on Sept. 11 on the west side of the Atlantic. Oscar winner Benicio del Toro leads the cast, which includes Emily Blunt and Josh Brolin. The after party at Soho House was part of Grey Goose's series of high-profile bashes.
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More in Emmys territory than Oscars, the Property Brothers Jonathan and Drew Scott (as well as off-screen bro J.D., left), hosted TIFF honcho Cameron Bailey at the Producers Ball on Friday night of opening weekend.
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Jonathan and Drew Scott taste-test the Level Over and Samsung VR as Oscar contenders filtered through the Samsung space for interviews by Fandango's Dave Karger.
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Christopher Simon acts like he just married Catherine Hardwicke, whose "Miss You Already" hit the fest.
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The scene inside the Guess Portrait Studio on opening weekend.
Emma McIntyre/Getty Images for Guess
Naomi Watts and Elle Fanning prepare to take a selfie the morning after Fox Searchlight's "Demolition" opening night festivities.
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Fox Searchlight's David Greenbaum with Heather Lind, who plays Julia in "Demolition."
Stephanie Keenan/Getty Images for Grey Goose
Chris Cooper also partied at Soho on Thursday night.
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Jason Reitman grips director Jean-Marc Vallee, who previously wowed TIFF with "Dallas Buyers Club" two seasons ago. Reitman is an executive producer on "Demolition."
Stephanie Keenan/Getty Images for Grey Goose
Gyllenhaal has a first-look deal with Bold Films (President Gary Michael Walters is center). Denis Villeneuve also made the Soho House after party hosted by Grey Goose.
Stephanie Keenan/Getty Images for Grey Goose
Vallee with screenwriter Bryan Sipe. Sipe's script appeared on the Blacklist, the collection of hot unproduced film lit.
Stephanie Keenan/Getty Images for Grey Goose
Grey Goose's global face Joe McCanta (the chemist behind the awards season cocktails) chats with Monica Bacardi at Soho House.
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Oscar winner Jean Dujardin popped in to Fandango and Samsung Galaxy's Studio on Friday.
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At the Venice Film Festival, Sunrise and Mark Ruffalo celebrated "Spotlight." Moet & Chandon and Chopard threw a bash at PalazzinaG.
Marilynne Mungovan
Dujardin's former co-star in "The Artist," Berenice Bejo, toasted "The Childhood of a Leader" at the Venice Film Festival, with Elizabeth Banks, Odessa Young, and more at the PalazzinaG.
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Top pics from inside the bashes as fall festivals and premieres bring out awards contenders, pretenders and hopefuls for the Oscars on February 28, 2016

At Robert Evans' Woodland Estate in Beverly Hills, documentarians huddled to celebrate Brett Morgen and "Montage of Heck" on Thursday, November 5. The intimate crowd of 25 was dense with doc A-listers: Lauren Greenfield ("Queen of Versailles"), Morgen, Amy Berg (upcoming Janis Joplin doc "Janis") and Liz Garbus ("Nina Simone").

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