There has never been an Oscars show with a race as wide-open as it is this year, with a remarkable five films heading to the Dolby Theatre with a real chance of winning the Academy Award for Best Picture.
And there has rarely been an Oscars in which the Best Picture race — in fact, all the races — are as overshadowed by outside events as they are this year.
As the 90th Academy Awards take place on Sunday evening, people will want to know how the show is going to address the seismic changes that are taking place in Hollywood in the wake of the Harvey Weinstein allegations and the rise of the #MeToo and #TimesUp movements.
They’ll want to know if the Academy is going to face the thorny issue of diversity in Hollywood, beyond congratulating themselves on nominating four black actors in a year that once had the potential to be a return of the #OscarsSoWhite controversy.
They’ll want to know if host Jimmy Kimmel will get political, and whether his monologue will detour from movie jokes into slaps at Donald Trump.
Will the presenters and winners also speak out, venturing into subjects from sexual misconduct to gun control and turning the Oscars into a bigger, flashier version of January’s black-clad, explicitly political Golden Globe Awards?
Will presenters have the right envelopes when they walk on stage, and how will Warren Beatty and Faye Dunaway handle their second chance at giving out Best Picture in the wake of last year’s envelope disaster?
And then, after all that is settled, they’ll want to know if “The Shape of Water,” “Get Out” or “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” will win Best Picture, or if “Lady Bird” or “Dunkirk” could engineer an upset.
In an anniversary year that would normally be the basis for a celebratory Oscars, that’s the very real challenge facing show producers Michael De Luca and Jennifer Todd. They not only have to celebrate the movies and the nominees, they need to convince the audience that it’s OK to glorify the products of an industry that not only contained sexual predators but enabled them.
Before they can get us to rejoice in 90 years of Oscar history, they need to show us that the broken system of Hollywood is worth all the fuss.
De Luca and Todd have already proven that they have good instincts and they know how to put on a terrific Oscars show: Last year’s ceremony, their first as producers, was about three hours and 45 minutes of sharp, entertaining and occasionally emotional entertainment.
But De Luca and Todd have also learned how easy it is for an Oscars show to be completely overshadowed by things over which they have no control: Last year’s show actually lasted for three hours and 49 minutes — and in those final few minutes, an inattentive PwC accountant gave Beatty the wrong envelope and caused a fiasco that immediately became the only thing that people remember about the show.
The producing duo had certainly earned the chance to do another show that wouldn’t be derailed by distractions — but then, in October, the first Harvey Weinstein stories launched the ultimate distraction, one that made many in Hollywood uncertain about whether any kind of celebration was appropriate.
In many ways, these are the no-win Oscars: If the show spends too much time on #TimesUp and on political issues, people will complain that it is too political. If if doesn’t spend enough time on issues, people will complain that it’s ignoring the elephant in the room.
And Kimmel is facing the certain knowledge that every time a room full of entertainment industry folks gets together, their minds are not far from the fall of Weinstein and many others over the past five months — and while it would be weird to ignore that, the only way to joke about Weinstein is to be dark and vicious, not always the best fit for the Oscars.
Kimmel can’t really do what co-host John Mulaney did at Saturday’s Film Independent Spirit Awards, when he told a story of meeting Weinstein and hearing the mogul grumble that his TV productions got more attention than his films: “Forget ‘Pulp Fiction,’ my tombstone is gonna say “Project Runway,”‘ he told Mulaney.
“Ah, you don’t gotta worry any more, Harvey,” said Mulaney at the Spirit Awards. “It’s not gonna say ‘Project Runway.’ It’s gonna say ‘XXL unmarked grave.'”
Still, Kimmel has proven himself adept at mixing comedy and commentary; while the optics might be better if the show had a female host this year, he’s certainly got the skill set to deal with what needs to be dealt with, give the audience permission to laugh and then let them move to celebrating movies.
And if he, De Luca and Todd walk that fine line successfully, they’ll lead the audience into a confounding Oscars. The four acting races seem like foregone conclusions — Gary Oldman, Frances McDormand, Sam Rockwell and Allison Janney are all but unstoppable — and categories like Best Director (Guillermo del Toro), Best Adapted Screenplay (“Call Me by Your Name”) and Best Animated Feature (“Coco”) are similarly locks.
But this is also a show that has the chance for some milestones: “Call Me by Your Name” screenwriter James Ivory (89 years, 270 days old) could become the oldest Oscar winner in history, unless “Faces Places” co-director Agnes Varda (89 years, 278 days) beats him to it. Roger Deakins could win his first cinematography Oscar in 14 nominations, or Diane Warren her first song Oscar in nine noms.
And it’s a show with the wildest Best Picture race in memory. Guillermo del Toro’s romantic fantasy “The Shape of Water” leads all films with 13 nominations and he’ll certainly win Best Director, but picture and director have split four times in the last five years. “Get Out” could easily sneak in and win, buoyed by support from an Academy that is rapidly growing younger and more diverse — but it only has four total nominations, which would be the fewest for any winner since “Cavalcade” in 1933. “Three Billboards” might have enough support from the huge Actors Branch to eke out a win, but to do so it would have to become only the fourth film in 89 years to win even without a Best Director nomination.
“Dunkirk” and “Lady Bird” also have difficult but conceivable paths to victory — and while the earlier awards will give clues as to what might happen at the end of the night, we legitimately won’t know what’s going to win Best Picture until Beatty and Dunaway open that final envelope.
That ought to be enough for an exciting Oscar show all by itself. But, of course, this is a year that is going to bring much, much more than that, for better and for worse.
Oscars 2018: Our Predictions in All 24 Categories (Photos)
We know who’ll win the acting awards, but several other categories — notably including Best Picture — are completely up in the air as Oscar night approaches. Here are our best guesses (and for a more complete explanation, read my fuller analysis):
BEST PICTURE Nominees: "Call Me by Your Name" "Darkest Hour" "Dunkirk" "Get Out" "Lady Bird" "Phantom Thread" "The Post" "The Shape of Water" "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri"
"The Shape of Water" has the most nominations, 13. It won the Producers Guild and Directors Guild awards. It's a valentine to the art of cinema.
Predicted winner: "The Shape of Water"
Fox Searchlight
BEST DIRECTOR Nominees: Paul Thomas Anderson, "Phantom Thread Guillermo del Toro, "The Shape of Water" Greta Gerwig, "Lady Bird" Christopher Nolan, "Dunkirk" Jordan Peele, "Get Out"
If Best Picture is so split between "Shape of Water," "Dunkirk," "Lady Bird" and "Get Out," shouldn't this race be a nail-biter between del Toro, Nolan, Gerwig and Peele? Nope. Just as it has in every recent year, the heat has coalesced around a single director, in this case del Toro. This seems to be one of the nine categories that are pretty much a lock.
Predicted winner: Guillermo del Toro
Photographed by Irvin Rivera
BEST ACTOR Nominees: Timothée Chalamet, "Call Me by Your Name" Daniel Day-Lewis, "Phantom Thread" Daniel Kaluuya, "Get Out" Gary Oldman, "Darkest Hour" Denzel Washington, "Roman J. Israel, Esq."
This is another of those locks. (In fact, all four acting categories are.) While Chalamet and Kaluuya are two of the year's big discovery, this award was Oldman's as soon as Focus began screening his all-but-unrecognizable performance as Winston Churchill. This is an Oscar standing ovation just waiting to happen.
Predicted Winner: Gary Oldman
"Darkest Hour" / Jack English/ Focus Features
BEST ACTRESS Nominees: Sally Hawkins, "The Shape of Water" Frances McDormand, "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri" Margot Robbie, "I, Tonya" Saoirse Ronan, "Lady Bird" Meryl Streep, "The Post"
It initially seemed to be one of the year's most competitive categories, with McDormand, Ronan and Hawkins landing massive acclaim, Robbie sneaking into the field with a bold performance and Meryl being Meryl. But then McDormand, an absolute force of nature in "Three Billboards," startin g winning all the awards. And she's not going to stop now.
Predicted winner: Frances McDormand
Fox Searchlight
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR Nominees: Willem Dafoe, "The Florida Project" Woody Harrelson, "Three Billb oards Outside Ebbing, Missouri" Richard Jenkins, "The Shape of Water" Christopher Plummer, "All the Money in the World" Sam Rockwell, "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri"
Sam Rockwell, playing a dimwitted and thuggish racist who is one of the only people in "Three Billboards" to slightly change, won SAG and the Golden Globes and the Critics' Choice Award and BAFTA, which has made him a prohibitive favorite.
Predicted winner: Sam Rockwell
Fox Searchlight
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS Nominees: Mary J. Blige, "Mudbound" Allison Janney, "I, Tonya" Lesley Manvill e, "Phantom Thread" Laurie Metcalf, "Lady Bird" Octavia Spencer, "The Shape of Water"
Voters for all the precursor awards embraced the fun Allison Janney had playing Tonya Harding's monstrous mother, and Oscar voters seem all but certain to do the same.
Predicted winner: Allison Janney
Neon
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY Nominees: "Call Me by Your Name" "The Disaster Artist" "Logan" "Molly's Game" "Mudbound"
While voters occasionally decide that the best screenplay is the one with the most words, which would be good news for Aaron Sorkin and "Molly's Game," nothing seems positioned to challenge James Ivory's adaptation of the Andre Aciman novel.
Predicted Winner: "Call Me by Your Name"
Sony Pictures Classics
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY Nominees: "The Big Sick" "Get Out" "Lady Bird" "The Shape of Water" "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri"
This is likely a very close race between "Three Billboards" and "Get Out" -- and while Jordan Peele wrote the year's most zeitgeisty movie and could easily win, "Three Billboards" is a showier piece of writing.
"Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri" / Fox Searchlight
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY Nominees: "Blade Runner 2049" "Darkest Hour" "Dunkirk" "Mudbound" "The Shape of Water"
"Blade Runner" DP Roger Deakins, a pretty unanimous choice as the greatest living cinematographer, has been nominated 13 previous times but has never won, and his astounding work on the Denis Villeneuve epic ought to finally do the trick.
Predicted winner: "Blade Runner 2049"
"Blade Runner 2049" / Warner Bros.
BEST FILM EDITING Nominees: "Baby Driver" "Dunkirk" "I, Tonya" "The Shape of Water" "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri"
"Baby Driver" is such a virtuoso piece of fast-paced editing that it could well prove an exception to the usual rule that you need to be a Best Picture nominee to win in this category. But "Dunkirk," which simultaneously cuts between three different war stories taking place at different locations and different times, is an advertisement for its editing.
Predicted winner: "Dunkirk"
Warner Bros
BEST COSTUME DESIGN Nominees: "Beauty and the Beast" "Darkest Hour" "Phantom Thread" "The Shape of Water" "Victoria & Abdul"
It was a shock when the Costume Designers Guild gave its period-costumes award not to "Phantom Thread," the movie about a clothes designer, but to "The Shape of Water," most of whose characters sport lab coats or cleaning-lady smocks. But look for Oscar voters to recognize the movie in which the man makes the clothes and the clothes make the man ... and the women.
Predicted winner: "Phantom Thread"
"Phantom Thread" / Focus Features
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN Nominees: "Beauty and the Beast" "Blade Runner 2049" "Darkest Hour" "Dunkirk" "The Shape of Water"
This should be a showdown between the amazing futurescapes of "Blade Runner" and the richly detailed environments of "The Shape of Water" -- and the fact that voters like the latter movie better than the former one could tip the scales.
Predicted winner: "The Shape of Water"
Fox Searchlight
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING Nominees: "Darkest Hour" "Victoria & Abdul" "Wonder"
Here's another lock, because only one of these films features makeup that is instrumental in an Oscar-winning performance. Before Gary Oldman could act like Winston Churchill, he had to look like Winston Churchill, and that was the considerable accomplishment of the "Darkest Hour" makeup team.
Predicted winner: "Darkest Hour"
Focus Features
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE Nominees: "Dunkirk" "Phantom Thread" "The Shape of Water" "Star Wars: The Last Jedi" "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri"
Voters love a piece of music that instantly captures the mood of a film they admire, and Alexandre Desplat provides that in his music for "The Shape of Water."
Predicted winner: "The Shape of Water"
Fox Searchlight
BEST ORIGINAL SONG Nominees: "Mighty River" from "Mudbound" "Mystery of Love" from "Call Me by Your Name" "Remember Me" from "Coco" "Stand Up for Something" from "Marshall" "This Is Me" from "The Greatest Showman"
"Remember Me" is from a bigger movie but "This Is Me" is becoming a phenomenon at just the right time, which will probably give "City of Stars" writers Benj Pasek and Justin Paul their second consecutive song Oscar.
Predicted winner: "The Greatest Showman"
20th Century Fox
BEST SOUND EDITING Nominees: "Baby Driver" "Blade Runner 2049" "Dunkirk" "The Shape of Water" "Star Wars: The Last Jedi"
Two previous Christopher Nolan movies, "The Dark Knight" and "Inception," have won in this category, and his "Dunkirk" should have the scale and drama to give him a third.
Predicted winner: "Dunkirk"
"Dunkirk" / Warner Bros.
BEST SOUND MIXING Nominees: "Baby Driver" "Blade Runner 2049" "Dunkirk" "The Shape of Water" "Star Wars: The Last Jedi"
Over the last 12 years, the same film has won in both Oscar sound categories eight times -- so when in doubt, it's best to predict a sound-category sweep. This year also lacks the kind of big musical nominee that often wins in the category, which will help "Dunkirk" in its quest to win another.
Predicted winner: "Dunkirk"
"Dunkirk" / Warner Bros.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS Nominees: "Blade Runner 2049" "Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2" "Kong: Skull Island" "Star Wars: The Last Jedi" "War for the Planet of the Apes"
The team for the "Apes" franchise has yet to win an Oscar for their visual effects work on the series, but we're guessing that voters will finally come to their senses and realize what an accomplishment the simian saga has been.
Predicted winner: "War for the Planet of the Apes"
"War for the Planet of the Apes" / 20th Century Fox
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE Nominees: "The Boss Baby" "The Breadwinner" "Coco" "Ferdinand" "Loving Vincent"
Has "Coco" lost anything it's been nominated for this year? If so, I wasn't paying attention.
Predicted winner: "Coco"
"Coco" / Disney/Pixar
BEST FOREIGN-LANGUA GE FILM Nominees: "A Fantastic Woman," Chile "The Insult," Lebanon "Loveless," Russia "On Body and Soul," Hungary "The Square," Sweden
In a very close race, we think the Euro-centric nature of the Academy's international membership may give the slightest of edges to "The Insult."
Predicted winner: "The Insult"
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE Nominees: "Abacus: Small Enough to Jail" "Faces Places" "Icarus" "Last Men in Aleppo" "Strong Island"
With none of the four issue-oriented films really standing out, it's possible that the serious vote will split four ways and allow the beloved French icon Agnès Varda to become the oldest Oscar winner ever for her and co-director JR's wry and delightful travelogue "Faces Places."
Predicted winner: "Faces Places"
"Faces Places"
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT Nominees: "Edith+Eddie" "Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405" "Heroin(e)" "Knife Skills" "Traffic Stop"
The two strongest contenders are "Heroin(e)," a wrenching but also inspiring look at the opioid crisis in West Virginia though the eyes of three women (a fire chief, a judge and a crusading volunteer) on the front lines, and "Edith+Eddie," a character study of the country's oldest biracial newlyweds that leaves viewers utterly infuriated at government indifference toward the elderly. Typically, the film that wins in this category is the film that leaves viewers with some hope, which could give "Heroin(e)" a tiny edge.
Predicted winner: "Heroin(e)"
Netflix
BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM Nominees: "Dear Basketball" "Garden Party" "Lou" "Negative Space" "Revolting Rhymes"
At the Oscar nominees luncheon, there was no bigger star in the room than Kobe Bryant, and nobody who posed for more selfies. And animator/director Glen Keane is a Disney vet almost as beloved in animation as Kobe is in basketball.
Predicted winner: "Dear Basketball"
"Dear Basketball"
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM Nominees: "DeKalb Elementary" "The Eleven O'Clock" "My Nephew Emmett" "The Silent Child" "Watu Wote/All of Us"
Three of the nominees -- "DeKalb Elementary," "My Nephew Emmett" and "Watu Wote" -- are exceptional, fact-based student films that could not be timelier: "DeKalb" deals with a shooter at an elementary school, "Emmett" with a horrifying episode that helped trigger the civil rights movement, "Watu Wote" with Christian/Muslim tensions.
Predicted winner: "DeKalb Elementary"
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The acting categories are all sewn up, but Best Picture could yield an upset
We know who’ll win the acting awards, but several other categories — notably including Best Picture — are completely up in the air as Oscar night approaches. Here are our best guesses (and for a more complete explanation, read my fuller analysis):
Fox Searchlight
