Why This Year’s Oscar Race Will Go Down to the Wire
In a confusing year, it takes a long time for a winner to emerge in our simulated Best Picture count
Steve Pond | February 11, 2015 @ 12:19 PM
Last Updated: February 12, 2015 @ 2:28 PM
AWARDS BEAT
A version of this story appeared in the Down to the Wire issue of TheWrap magazine.
As one of the strangest and most confounding years in recent Academy Awards history enters its final week of voting, things should be feeling more settled. After all, “Birdman” has won the top award from the Producers Guild and the Directors Guild, along with the Screen Actors’ Guild’s ensemble honor. By all rights, it should be a easy pick to win the Best Picture Oscar on Feb. 22.
And it probably will be — except that almost nobody would be surprised by an upset. In the latest vote at GoldDerby.com, “Birdman” was picked to win by 13 of the 23 “experts.” But “Boyhood” was picked by nine, despite the fact that it didn’t win at PGA or DGA and could well lose WGA to “The Grand Budapest Hotel” on Saturday. (At Movie City News’ Gurus of Gold panel, meanwhile, “Boyhood” is still in the lead, with nine votes to four for “Birdman.”)
Meanwhile, one pundit picked “Selma.” And “American Sniper” keeps popping up as a potential surprise winner. And the Weinstein Company isn’t giving up on “The Imitation Game.”
All season long, we pundits have been uneasy. “Boyhood” won the critics’ awards? Then it must be the frontrunner. But “Birdman” won PGA? Then it’s the new top dog. And DGA, too? Game over. But wait, “Boyhood” won BAFTA, which has a six-year streak of predicting the Oscars, so it’s not over after all.
The bottom line: I don’t know what’s going to win. So in an attempt to gain a little insight into the process in this strange, strange year, I put out a stack of mock ballots at TheWrap’s Oscar party last week. I asked partygoers to fill them out as if they were casting real ballots — which is to say, to rank the eight Best Picture nominees from their favorite to their least favorite.
(That ranking, by the way, is very important. Only voting for one or two movies doesn’t help your favorites, but simply increases the chance that you’re wasting your vote.)
And after counting those ballots, I’m pretty sure of one thing only: When the folks at PricewaterhouseCoopers begin counting real Oscar ballots next Wednesday, they’re going to continue counting for a long time.
The way the Best Picture count works, ballots are separated into piles depending on the film ranked first on each ballot. The film with the fewest No. 1 votes is eliminated, and its votes are shifted to the film ranked second on each of its ballots. The process continues, with the last-place film being redistributed round after round, until one movie has more than 50 percent of the votes.
I was only dealing with about 40 ballots, a small sample and one that isn’t necessarily representative of the Academy at large. But it’s worth noting that my count went to the limit: No film reached the 50 percent level until only two movies were left standing.
And yes, those two were “Birdman,” which won, and “Boyhood,” which came in second. I didn’t know which one of them came out on top until I’d eliminated “American Sniper” (surprisingly, the first film to be knocked out), “The Theory of Everything,” “The Imitation Game,” “The Grand Budapest Hotel,” “Whiplash” and “Selma,” in that order.
Worth noting: “Birdman” started with a big lead, which it never lost. The lead, though, narrowed as ballots were redistributed and “Boyhood,” “Selma” and “Whiplash” moved up.
Also notable: “Boyhood” was in the top three on 75 percent of the ballots, the best such showing. If that held true with a much larger group of voters — say, the 6,000-plus who cast Oscar ballots — the film just might forge the kind of consensus needed to win, even if it started from behind.
The key, though, is that this year’s race was close enough that it took a full six rounds, the maximum needed to find a winner in an eight-film field. (Theoretically you could go seven, but at one point “Theory of Everything” and “Imitation Game” tied for last and were eliminated in the same round, making a seventh round impossible in our simulation.)
I have little doubt that in the years in which, say, “The King’s Speech,” “The Artist” and “Argo” won Best Picture, those films reached the 50-percent threshold within a few rounds. But this year feels different.
While I don’t pretend that our small group of voters are representative of the Academy or will have the same tastes, I do suspect that the real count will go the distance, too.
By the way, here’s a video I made last year explaining how the Best Picture count works.
Oscars 2015: The Nominees (Photos)
Best Motion Picture of the Year: “American Sniper," “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance),” “Boyhood" (pictured), "The Grand Budapest Hotel," “The Imitation Game" (pictured), “Selma" (pictured), “The Theory of Everything," “Whiplash”
Paramount/IFC/The Weinstein Company
Best Director: “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance),” Alejandro G. Iñárritu; “Boyhood,” Richard Linklater (pictured); “Foxcatcher” Bennett Miller; “The Grand Budapest Hotel,” Wes Anderson; “The Imitation Game,” Morten Tyldum
Getty Images
Best Animated Feature Film: “Big Hero 6,” Don Hall, Chris Williams and Roy Conli; “The Boxtrolls” (pictured), Anthony Stacchi, Graham Annable and Travis Knight; “How to Train Your Dragon 2,” Dean DeBlois and Bonnie Arnold; “Song of the Sea” Tomm Moore and Paul Young “The Tale of the Princess Kaguya” Isao Takahata and Yoshiaki Nishimura
Focus Features
Best Original Screenplay: “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)” by Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Jr. & Armando Bo; “Boyhood" by Richard Linklater; “Foxcatcher” by E. Max Frye and Dan Futterman; “The Grand Budapest Hotel” by Wes Anderson, story by Wes Anderson & Hugo Guinness; “Nightcrawler” (pictured) by Dan Gilroy
Open Road Films
Best Adapted Screenplay: “American Sniper” by Jason Hall, “The Imitation Game” (pictured) by Graham Moore; “Inherent Vice” by Paul Thomas Anderson; “The Theory of Everything” by Anthony McCarten; “Whiplash” by Damien Chazelle
The Weinstein Company
Best Foreign Language Film: “Ida,” (pictured) Poland; “Leviathan,” Russia; “Tangerines,” Estonia; “Timbuktu,” Mauritania; “Wild Tales,” Argentina
Music Box Films
Best Documentary Feature: "Citizenfour," "Finding Vivian Maier," "Last Days in Vietnam," "Salt of the Earth," "Virunga" (pictured)
Netflix
Best Film Editing: "American Sniper" (pictured), "Boyhood," "Grand Budapest Hotel," Imitation Game," Whiplash"
Warner Bros.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role: Steve Carell in “Foxcatcher," Bradley Cooper in “American Sniper," Benedict Cumberbatch in “The Imitation Game," Michael Keaton (pictured) in “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)," Eddie Redmayne in “The Theory of Everything”
Getty Images
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role: Robert Duvall in “The Judge,” Ethan Hawke in “Boyhood," Edward Norton in “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)," Mark Ruffalo in “Foxcatcher," J.K. Simmons (pictured) in “Whiplash”
Getty Images
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role: Marion Cotillard in “Two Days, One Night,” Felicity Jones (pictured) in “The Theory of Everything," Julianne Moore in “Still Alice," Rosamund Pike in “Gone Girl," Reese Witherspoon in “Wild”
Getty Images
Best Actress in a Supporting Role: Patricia Arquette in “Boyhood," Laura Dern in “Wild," Keira Knightley (pictured) in “The Imitation Game," Emma Stone in “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)," Meryl Streep in “Into the Woods”
Getty Images
Achievement in Cinematography: “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance),” Emmanuel Lubezki; “The Grand Budapest Hotel” (pictured), Robert Yeoman; “Ida,” Lukasz Zal and Ryszard Lenczewski; “Mr. Turner,” Dick Pope; “Unbroken,” Roger Deakins
Fox Searchlight Pictures
Best Costume Design: “The Grand Budapest Hotel,” Milena Canonero; “Inherent Vice” (pictured), Mark Bridges; “Into the Woods,” Colleen Atwood; "Maleficent,” Anna B. Sheppard and Jane Clive; “Mr. Turner,” Jacqueline Durran
Warner Bros.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: “Foxcatcher” (pictured), Bill Corso and Dennis Liddiard; “The Grand Budapest Hotel,” Frances Hannon and Mark Coulier; “Guardians of the Galaxy” Elizabeth Yianni-Georgiou and David White
Sony Pictures Classics
Best Original Song: “Everything Is Awesome” from “The Lego Movie," music and lyric by Shawn Patterson; “Glory” from “Selma” (pictured), music and lyric by John Stephens and Lonnie Lynn; “Grateful” from “Beyond the Lights,” music and lyric by Diane Warren; “I’m Not Gonna Miss You” from “Glen Campbell…I’ll Be Me,” music and lyric by Glen Campbell and Julian Raymond; “Lost Stars” from “Begin Again,” music and lyric by Gregg Alexander and Danielle Brisebois
Paramount Pictures
Best Original Score: “The Grand Budapest Hotel,” Alexandre Desplat; “The Imitation Game,” Alexandre Desplat; “Interstellar,” Hans Zimmer (pictured); “Mr. Turner,” Gary Yershon; “The Theory of Everything,” Jóhann Jóhannsson
Getty Images
Best Production Design: “The Grand Budapest Hotel,” “The Imitation Game," “Interstellar," “Into the Woods," “Mr. Turner” (pictured)
Sony Pictures Classics
Best Sound Editing: "American Sniper," "Birdman," "The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies," "Interstellar" (pictured), "Unbroken"
Paramount Pictures
Best Sound Mixing: “American Sniper,” John Reitz, Gregg Rudloff and Walt Martin; “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance),” Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño and Thomas Varga; “Interstellar,” Gary A. Rizzo, Gregg Landaker and Mark Weingarten; “Unbroken” (pictured), Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño and David Lee; “Whiplash,” Craig Mann, Ben Wilkins and Thomas Curley
Universal Pictures
Best Visual Effects: “Captain America: The Winter Soldier,” Dan DeLeeuw, Russell Earl, Bryan Grill and Dan Sudick; “Dawn of the Planet of the Apes,” Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, Daniel Barrett and Erik Winquist; “Guardians of the Galaxy” (pictured), Stephane Ceretti, Nicolas Aithadi, Jonathan Fawkner and Paul Corbould; “Interstellar” Paul Franklin, Andrew Lockley, Ian Hunter and Scott Fisher; “X-Men: Days of Future Past,” Richard Stammers, Lou Pecora, Tim Crosbie and Cameron Waldbauer
Disney/Marvel
Best Live Action Short Film: “Aya,” Oded Binnun and Mihal Brezis; “Boogaloo and Graham” (pictured), Michael Lennox and Ronan Blaney; “Butter Lamp (La Lampe Au Beurre De Yak),” Hu Wei and Julien Féret; “Parvaneh,” Talkhon Hamzavi and Stefan Eichenberger; “The Phone Call,” Mat Kirkby and James Lucas
Best Animated Short Film: “The Bigger Picture” (pictured) Daisy Jacobs and Christopher Hees; “The Dam Keeper,” Robert Kondo and Dice Tsutsumi; “Feast,” Patrick Osborne and Kristina Reed; “Me and My Moulton,” Torill Kove; “A Single Life” Joris Oprins
Best Documentary Short: “Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1,” Ellen Goosenberg Kent and Dana Perry; “Joanna,” Aneta Kopacz; “Our Curse” Tomasz Sliwinski and Maciej Slesicki; “The Reaper (La Parka),” Gabriel Serra Arguello: “White Earth” (pictured), J. Christian Jensen
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See the nominees that have a shot at Oscar gold when the 87th annual Academy Awards airs Feb. 22 on ABC
Best Motion Picture of the Year: “American Sniper," “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance),” “Boyhood" (pictured), "The Grand Budapest Hotel," “The Imitation Game" (pictured), “Selma" (pictured), “The Theory of Everything," “Whiplash”