The future of the flagship show may be uncertain, but Paramount has built a franchise that can survive disruptions
The rumors that Kevin Costner might be leaving “Yellowstone” — or might simply be wrestling over his contract in the press, putting the future of the show in jeopardy either way — were surprising, given the show’s popularity. A key question, with reports that Matthew McConaughey is potentially waiting in the wings to join the franchise, is whether the audience is coming for the show or for its star.
The answer may well be both. Demand for both “Yellowstone” and Kevin Costner hit all-time highs the week of the latest season premiere in November, according to Parrot Analytics’ data, which takes into account consumer research, streaming, downloads and social media, among other engagement. The actor and producer saw 53 times the demand of the average talent in the U.S. This was followed by a second spike in demand around Jan. 11 when he won the Golden Globe for Best Actor for his “Yellowstone” role.
Demand for seasons of “Yellowstone,” U.S. (Parrot Analytics)
The fifth season of “Yellowstone” set ratings records, which makes it an extremely valuable piece of content. That’s not lost on Paramount, which carries the series on linear cable, or Peacock, which streams it. But the show also underpins a growing and massively popular franchise, including the already successful prequels “1883” and “1923” on Paramount+. Showrunner Taylor Sheridan is riding this wave of success and the total demand for his body of work has recently overtaken other top producers.
The apparent rift over Costner seems to come down to scheduling conflicts, as well as the fragmented linear and streaming rights to the show. A Paramount spokesperson told TheWrap, “Kevin Costner is a big part of ‘Yellowstone’ and we hope that’s the case for a long time to come.”
But there are also rumors that McConaughey might either replace Costner in a starring role in the series or in a franchise extension. (Paramount said that “McConaughey is a phenomenal talent with whom we’d love to partner.”) Looks like there could be a new sheriff in town.
Demand for Kevin Costner and Matthew McConaughey, U.S., 2021-2023 (Parrot Analytics)
Given Costner’s current high profile, if no deal can be reached to keep the actor on board, at least he can ride off into the sunset with his head held high. And it isn’t all bad news for “Yellowstone” fans. The franchise should be more resilient now than if this happened a year ago. A major benefit of having so many spin-offs is that a franchise can survive unexpected disruptions to its flagship series.
Bringing McConaughey on has the potential to reinvigorate the franchise and draw in new audiences. Compared to Costner, we see McConaughey had a higher baseline of demand historically. Only during this latest season of “Yellowstone” did Costner’s demand rise above McConaughey’s — which brings us back to the question of the star versus the show.
Audience composition for Kevin Costner and Matthew McConaughey, U.S. (Parrot Analytics)
Another dimension of this casting update that could be good news for the franchise is the difference in the audiences of these two leads. While Kevin Costner’s audience is 61.3% male, McConaughey’s audience is evenly split between men and women. That’s actually more in line with the “Yellowstone” audience. And McConaughey’s audience is younger than Costner’s, which presents an opportunity to bring younger viewers to the show, or a “Yellowstone” extension featuring McConaughey. Either way, saddle up for a new era in the “Yellowstone” saga.
Christofer Hamilton is a senior insights analyst at Parrot Analytics, a WrapPRO partner. For more from Parrot Analytics, visit the Data and Analysis Hub.
Parrot Analytics is the industry leader in global audience demand measurement. The company measures global supply and demand for entertainment, capturing over 2 billion audiences expressing demand for content and talent in over 100 languages, across all platforms, in 200+ countries. Parrot Analytics' partners use this knowledge to help better understand global supply and demand across all platforms to value content and talent, drive better production, distribution, acquisition and marketing decisions, as well as increase D2C growth and retention. For more information, see www.parrotanalytics.com.
Parrot Analytics
Parrot Analytics is the industry leader in global audience demand measurement. The company measures global supply and demand for entertainment, capturing over 2 billion audiences expressing demand for content and talent in over 100 languages, across all platforms, in 200+ countries. Parrot Analytics' partners use this knowledge to help better understand global supply and demand across all platforms to value content and talent, drive better production, distribution, acquisition and marketing decisions, as well as increase D2C growth and retention. For more information, see www.parrotanalytics.com.