"The Artist" will win six Oscars, "Hugo" will take home four, and "The Help" will land two of the four acting awards.
And the film I picked to win it all back in early September, "The Descendants," will have to settle for a single win for its screenplay.
With Oscar ballots due back at PricewaterhouseCoopers by the end of the day on Tuesday, those are my best guesses as to what Academy voters will do. It's a year where lots of big categories seem all but locked up, but also a year with confounding races in a number of categories.
Also read: Oscar's in Desperate Need of Surprise -- Here's Where They Could Come From
I suspect that anybody scoring in the high teens (out of 24 categories) will do very well in the Oscar pool.
Also read: 2012 Oscars: Complete List of Nominees
Here are my predictions, in the order in which they appear on the Oscar ballot. I've also indicated who I'd pick if I had an Oscar vote.
BEST PICTURE
Prediction: "The Artist"
Is there any doubt? The black-and-white silent film seemed utterly charming and a little slight when it debuted at Cannes – but in ensuing months Oscar voters found movies to like, but nothing to love enough to woo them away from the delightful novelty.
"The Descendants" has rallied in recent days, but it's probably too little too late; "Hugo" has Martin Scorsese but may be too divisive to win; and "The Help" has the actors but no other Academy branch in its corner. "The Artist" gets its happy ending and barely breaks a sweat in the process.
My vote: "The Tree of Life"
Terrence Malick's confounding epic, both personal and cosmic, was my favorite movie of the year, so I'd rank it first on my ballot even though I know that vote would end up going to my second choice, "Hugo," as ballots were redistributed. "The Descendants," "Midnight in Paris" and "Moneyball" follow, in that order.
(Right: my rankings, on a facsimile Oscar ballot.)
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Prediction: Jean Dujardin, "The Artist"
This one is close, and George Clooney ("The Descendants") has the advantage of being a very popular guy who represents the best chance to derail the "Artist" express. But the die was cast with the SAG win by Dujardin – who, the Academy can be relatively certain, will not act like an imbecile the way Roberto Benigni did when he won Best Actor in 1999.
My vote: Gary Oldman, "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy"
He'd get my vote partly for the marvelous subtlety of his performance – conveying brilliance and total command with barely a raised eyebrow – and partly for a career that has deserved far more nominations than just this one.
